Nightengale: Fear factor cools MLB's trade market
We never learn.
We keep falling in love with them.
We just can't help ourselves.
We see them from afar. Get to know them. And start dreaming, believing this will be the start of a beautiful relationship that lasts a lifetime.
Ultimately, baseball prospects are more likely to break our heart.
They are the most desirable commodity in baseball - the cheap date. It costs nothing to court them. Gives us time to believe in them.
Oh, can they ever let us down.
It's this blind faith that destroys teams at the non-waiver trade deadline, keeping them from going for the jugular, too frightened to take a chance.
Teams are scoffing at the Philadelphia Phillies' asking price for ace Cole Hamels. They are calling it absurd that the Phillies had the gall to ask for center fielder Joc Pederson, shortstop Corey Seager and left-handed pitcher Julio Urias from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Come on, how can anyone possibly fault the Phillies for asking for the Dodgers' top three prospects?
Hamels, 30, is one of the greatest pitchers on the planet - a former World Series MVP who's pitched more than 200 innings in five seasons. He's pitching better than at any time in his career, yielding a 1.58 ERA since June 1. And he is under team control through 2019.
The Dodgers might win the World Series this year without Hamels, but with him in the rotation, tagging along with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, you can guarantee it.
The St. Louis Cardinals may have the second-worst offense in baseball, but if you bring Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price aboard for the next 1 ½ years, they could be back in the World Series for the third time in four years.
The cost is prospects, those coveted prized prospects.
Remember two years ago, when Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty was blasted to the high heavens for trading away starter Edinson Volquez and three prized prospects for starter Mat Latos? Well, Latos has figured significantly in the Reds' trips to the playoffs in consecutive years.
And the Padres have two just players left from the trade: first baseman Yonder Alonso (.213, five homers, 22 RBI), and catcher Yasmani Grandal (.209, nine homers, 24 RBI).
Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin still remembers the masses decrying the price he paid for Cleveland Indians ace CC Sabathia in July 2008. He gave up first baseman Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson and a player to be named.
The Brewers, behind Sabathia (12-1), made the playoffs for the first time since 1982, and are sitting in first place today. The cost? The only prospect who turned out was the one to be named later, center fielder Michael Brantley.
Do we need to look any further than Phillies starter Cliff Lee for the absurdity of value we place on some of these prospects? Lee has been traded three times since 2009, and in return, his teams have received 11, uh, prized prospects.
The Indians received a whopping package of pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, infielder Jason Donald and catcher Lou Marson in that June 2009 trade. Yep, all busts.
Just a few months later, the Phillies traded Lee to the Seattle Mariners for the prospect haul of outfielder Tyson Gillies and pitchers Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez. Again, all busts.
And in July 2010, the Mariners traded Lee to Texas for Matt Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak. Does anyone want any of them? Anyone?
Oh, sure, you've got to be careful. Former Atlanta Braves GM John Schuerholz, a likely Hall of Famer, made the costly blunder in 2007 when he traded for Mark Teixeira of the Texas Rangers. He surrendered shortstop Elvis Andrus, pitchers Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia. It turned out to be the deal that helped send the Rangers to back-to-back World Series; the Teixeira Era in Atlanta ended without a trip to the playoffs.
And, of course, the Doyle Alexander-John Smoltz trade with Detroit and Atlanta may be the game's ultimate cautionary tale.
Yet, even if these prospect package deals didn't all pan out, at least these teams were all in. No chips were left on the table.
It's the price of poker if you want to play with the big boys in October.
This is a seller's market, and if you want to give your club a chance to win right now, you've got no choice but to surrender prospects for a chance at the playoffs.
If you want to hang onto your prospects, get praised by Baseball America, but miss out on the playoffs, feel free.
The San Diego Padres, just two years ago, were widely acclaimed as having the greatest farm system in baseball. Well, they have yet to win more than 76 games in a season.
They're now searching for their fourth GM in six years. And they are at least three years away from contending again.
But, hey, at least they can dazzle you at Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore.
If you're the Pittsburgh Pirates, sitting one game out of first place after winning 28 of your last 44 games, you go for it. Don't cheat your fans. Don't try to fool your clubhouse. Cough up a prospect or two, and get yourself a starting pitcher.
If you're the Kansas City Royals, isn't 29 years enough? You already showed your hand 1 ½ years ago when you dealt top outfield prospect Wil Myers for starter James Shields. Now, with only two months left until Shields departs, surrender some prospects and avoid no man's land.
And if you're the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays, this is your chance. Do what it takes to win now, because who knows what tomorrow will bring, with the deep-pocketed New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox seeking vengeance in 2015.
The days of payroll concerns are over. Every club is loaded. There's not a single team losing money. Gone are the days of needing an entire homegrown roster to survive. These are the days your fans and TV rights holders are salivating for star power.
This is the time to go for it.
Go ahead, keep an eye on what the Brewers do. They may play in baseball's smallest media market, but they won't stand pat. They never do. They went for it with Sabathia. They went for it again in 2010 with Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
And guess what: Melvin and owner Mark Attanasio will make sure they go for it again, no matter what prospects they surrender.
Really, it shouldn't be such a novel concept.
