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Spotting the deals and duds of Black Friday 2015

Courtney Jespersen
NerdWallet

On Black Friday, retailers will almost certainly tout every item in their sale as a huge “deal.” But despite what stores may want you to think, that’s not always the case.

Black Friday shoppers inspecting goods at a Toys-R-Us store.

Before you fill your cart with more purchases than you can fit in your car, use this guide to spot the deals and skip the duds on Black Friday.

DEAL: Surface Pro 3 and iPad Air 2

Microsoft unveiled its Surface Pro 4 earlier this year, but if you will be satisfied with last year's model, Best Buy is discounting the price on select versions of the Surface Pro 3 by $300 (regularly $1,299.99 to $1,5499.99). If you’re more of an Apple person, Best Buy will also offer savings of up to $125 off on the iPad Air 2 ($100 off 64GB; $125 off 128GB; regularly $599.99 to $699.99).

How to stay in the black: This time of year is nearly unbeatable when it comes to deals on tech items. Look for big doorbuster deals on electronics and appliances, especially from big-box stores. You should especially be on the lookout for savings on previous editions of products, as these are typically discounted more than the latest models.

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DUD: Hand mixer, toaster oven and popcorn popper

According to its 2015 Black Friday ad, J.C. Penney will be selling a variety of small kitchen appliances for $9.99 this year, while supplies last. These include a Cooks 10-speed hand mixer, four-slice toaster oven, hot air popcorn popper and 10-speed glass blender, among others.

But there’s a catch: The boldly advertised $9.99 price is actually only achievable after completing a $10 mail-in rebate. That means shoppers will really be paying $19.99 on Black Friday (not $9.99). This isn’t nearly as big of a discount off of the original price of $35 to $60, especially if you never bother to fill in the rebate form.

How to stay in the black: Stay away from mail-in rebate offers. They lure you in with the promise of a super low price, but you’ll be paying more at the register than you may be willing to shell out.

DEAL: Free cash card

It pays to be an early bird shopper this year at Sports Authority. The first 80 customers in line at each participating Sports Authority location when stores open on Thanksgiving will receive a free Instant Sports Authority Cash Card worth $15 that can be used toward a purchase on the date issued. Doors open at 6 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day.

How to stay in the black: Look for freebies. Whether it’s a giveaway for the first few shoppers in line, entry into a sweepstakes, a percent-off coupon or a free product with purchase, retailers will have lots of incentives for shoppers this year. Read the Black Friday ads to see which ones you want a shot at.

DUD: Brother HL-L2320d Mono Laser Printer

According to a recent NerdWallet analysis, many Black Friday deals are a bust. In fact, some major retailers, including Sears and Sam’s Club, offered the same (or lower) prices as their Black Friday deals earlier in the month of November.

For instance, shoppers can buy the Brother HL-L2320d Mono Laser Printer from Staples for $79.99 on Black Friday, but it's available at Best Buy for $49.99 right now.

How to stay in the black: Compare prices. When possible, compare this year’s advertised sales to those at other times during the year. You may find that other sales boast better savings than Black Friday. Or, you’ll at least discover the regular price of the product, so you’ll prevent yourself from being tricked into believing a discount is better than it actually is.

DEAL: Xbox One bundle

This Thanksgiving at Target, shoppers can get their hands on one of the season’s hottest holiday gifts at a great price. The 500GB Xbox One "Gears of War" bundle will be on sale for $299.99 (regularly $349.99). Plus, customers will get a free $60 Target gift card when they buy the bundle.

How to stay in the black: Always compare deals on identical products across various retailers. For instance, GameStop is offering the 500GB Xbox One "Gears of War" bundle for $299.99 (regularly $349.99), but there’s no free gift card offer here.

Don’t let your deals become duds

When weighing the worth of any deal on Black Friday, be wary of the advertised percent-off discount (50%, 60%, 70%), as it might seem better than it actually is. As a shopper, you should judge the value of a deal based purely on the price you’re willing to pay for the item.

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Courtney Jespersen is a staff writer at NerdWallet, a personal finance website. Email: courtney@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @courtneynerd.

NerdWallet is a USA TODAY content partner providing general news, commentary and coverage from around the Web. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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