Trump and allies plot path to victory

For Donald Trump and his followers, the path to victory is fairly clear.

First, consolidate the leads he enjoys in Republican polls; then turn out enough supporters to win early state contests; then ride a wave of new and energized anti-establishment voters to the Republican Party presidential nomination and beyond. In interviews with activists, analysts and Trump supporters in early voting states, a complicated picture emerges of what it would take to transform the billionaire real estate developer from a front-running candidate to a plausible nominee.

Although not many people beyond Trump's orbit see it playing out that way, what is clear is that Trump has significant appeal with core GOP voters — and significant hurdles that may prove difficult to overcome.

Not that his supporters are worried. "I think he will win in Iowa, he will win in New Hampshire, and he will win in South Carolina," said Stephen B. Stepanek, a Trump state co-chairman and volunteer from Milford, N.H. "And that momentum is going to carry him."

That path will not be easy, though.

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The closer Republicans get to actually voting — and there are more than five months to go before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary — the more they will question Trump's volatility, analysts said. The more they will wonder about past positions that are more Democratic, such as support for a single-payer health care system.

Down the line, the question may be the durability of the Trump political phenomenon and how long it will take the GOP to coalesce around an anti-Trump alternative, said Brendan Nyhan, an assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College. "Republican elites are uncomfortable with him being the party's nominee," he said. "They're not all powerful, but they can exert a lot of leverage."

COUNTING ON NEW VOTERS

Whatever happens in the next six months or so, the New York-based billionaire has put his political stamp on the summer of 2015, and Republican opponents will have to deal with him one way or another, sooner or later. At this point, Trump has convinced a large cadre of volunteers that he can go all the way by stressing issues like immigration and trade and attracting potential voters who have sat out previous elections because they dislike traditional politicians.

In an interview with Bill O'Reilly of Fox News this week, Trump played up the notion that he can bring in people who had given up on politics.

"If you look at the polls that are coming out on me, they have a great incentive to vote," Trump said. "They like what I say. I think they like me in a certain way which is nice. It is always nice to be liked."

Tana Goertz, who got to know Trump as a contestant on season three of NBC’s The Apprentice and now co-chairs his efforts in Iowa, said she’s regularly approached by Iowans who say this is the first time they’ve been excited about politics — and they want to pledge to vote for Trump. She said she’s also bombarded with volunteer requests from college-age Iowans who are old enough to caucus for the first time.

The early states are key to Trump's chances (as well as his many opponents). In addition to his main campaign headquarters at Trump Tower in New York, they are currently the only places where he has full-time staff members, the campaign said: 10 in Iowa, eight in New Hampshire and seven in South Carolina. He has volunteers in other states; those in Alabama are helping plan a Friday night rally at a football stadium in Mobile.

Trump and aides have said they are staffing up and will have people in all 50 states, an effort that is critical for a range of campaign activities, from organizing events to making sure he's on the ballot in every state.

CAN HE WIN OVER EVANGELICALS?

The first true test comes with the Iowa caucuses in early February.

Iowa Christian conservatives say they’re passionate about Trump, even if some feel a bit conflicted. They regularly say they believe the best president should be someone who exhibits family stability, faith in God, business ethics and personal humility, characteristics that don't exactly apply to a man on his third marriage, who admits he has never sought God's forgiveness and regularly boasts about his wealth and his conspicuous consumption.

For now, Christian conservatives are taking delight in Trump for “throwing a monkey wrench into the early coronation of a moderate Republican,” said American Renewal Project leader David Lane, who is helping Iowa evangelical conservative pastors mobilize an army of like-minded voters.

Despite that, some social conservatives say it won't be easy for them to caucus with a candidate who has no daily relationship with Jesus Christ. “Evangelicals will most likely not vote to nominate Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee for president in 2016,” Lane said.

Goertz pointed out that Trump abstains from drinking and gambling. “And when he says he hasn’t sought God’s forgiveness, he’s just being honest. Most politicians aren’t that transparent,” said Goertz, who was raised in the Mormon faith. “In my experience, what people love is his honesty.”

Not everyone's convinced.

“It's not going to happen right away,” said Wes Enos, who worked for the campaign of Christian conservative Michele Bachmann in 2012. “But eventually, Trump will look like old news. And obnoxious.”

One Iowa Republican faction that’s pre-disposed to liking someone like Trump is the Tea Party. Activists want a presidential candidate who shares their concerns about illegal immigration and Obamacare and who will defy the GOP establishment, they said. “Some are still on the fence, but they’re beginning to drop for Donald,” said Tea Party organizer Ken Crow, co-founder of citizensfortrump.com.“The Tea Party doesn’t want any mushy middle moderates," Crow said.

TAPPING INTO DISCONTENT IN N.H. AND S.C.

Lou Gargiulo, a county chairman for Trump in New Hampshire, said the billionaire "speaks to issues I care about," including jobs and protecting the border. "The other candidates," he said, "seem to dance around these issues."

Trump's people believe he can win because he is tapping a large vein of voter discontent. He has the money and the independence to truly challenge the status quo, they said, and his status as a billionaire is seen as proof that he knows how to create jobs.

Some just like his style.

Ed McMullan, who chairs the Trump campaign in South Carolina, said people like him because he's "real," and no "your typical run-of-the-mill politician" of recent decades. "He's not giving them a line that's been rehearsed and polled and practiced," he said.

Donald Fowler, a former Democratic National Committee chairman who lives in South Carolina, said Trump may well have strong appeal in that very Republican state. His message plays well with conservatives who believe that cheap foreign labor, bad trade deals and immigration — legal or otherwise — have cost Americans jobs, and that the so-called political establishment has failed to address these problems.

Trump's attacks on 2008 Republican nominee John McCain and Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly would have sunk more traditional candidates, but his backers describe him as blunt and straightforward. "He's brash, he's audacious," said Fowler, a political science professor at the University of South Carolina. "He says and does all the things that they do themselves."

Opponents, meanwhile, say Trump's harsh comments about migrants from Mexico and female critics will damage the party with Hispanic and women voters, key parts of any coalitions.

Many of the same polls that put Trump ahead also show a majority of Republicans unwilling to back the businessman as the actual nominee, analysts noted. And there will likely be negative ads on Trump if he remains the front-runner.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire, said Trump may have a ceiling of support. Even so, he said, "if he did manage to hit his ceiling, he'd be competitive" in the Granite State. "I still find it unlikely that someone with so little party support can win the nomination," Scala said.

In the meantime, Nyhan said traditional Republicans must engage in a "delicate dance" with the maverick billionaire and his supporters. GOP critics must challenge Trump's qualifications, while not alienating his supporters and perhaps inspiring a third party bid if Trump fades in his drive for the GOP nomination. "It's so early," he said. "Americans are still on vacation."

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Jacobs reports for The Des Moines Register.