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OPINION

Amend Iran deal to improve it: Opposing view

Mark Dubowitz
Protesters in New York demand July 22, 2015, that Congress vote down the proposed deal with Iran.

The Iran nuclear deal has a major structural flaw. Rather than permanently blocking Iran’s nuclear weapons pathways, it opens a patient path. Tehran simply has to follow the deal to emerge in 10 to 15 years as a much more dangerous adversary with a massive nuclear program, a short path to a bomb, intercontinental ballistic missiles and its economy immunized against future sanctions.

But there is an alternative, and it isn’t war. It’s a better deal. Congress should require the administration to amend the agreement’s fatal flaws — especially the “sunset” clauses that over 10 to 15 years permit critical nuclear restrictions to disappear. Instead, these restrictions should remain until the United Nations Security Council — where America retains its veto — determines that Iran’s nuclear program is not a threat.

Ample precedent exists for Congress to demand these amendments. Throughout American history, Congress rejected or required amendments to about 200 bilateral and multilateral international agreements, including significant Cold War arms control agreements with the Soviets at a time when Moscow had thousands of nuclear-tipped missiles aimed at America.

If Congress votes down this Iran deal and requires changes, there are likely three scenarios. Each is problematic but manageable and preferable to this fatally flawed agreement.

First, Iran could decide to implement its deal commitments, triggering U.N. and European Union sanctions relief. Second, Iran could abandon its commitments and, if past is prologue, deterred by the threat of crippling sanctions and military force, move slowly to escalate its nuclear activities. Third, Iran could try to divide the U.S. from its partners.

Under all of these scenarios, China and Russia might return to business (but likely stay at the table to keep Iran from getting nukes). Europe, however, is Iran’s big economic prize. The key will be to use diplomatic persuasion and U.S. financial sanctions to keep Europeans out of Iran. Few European banks will risk penalties or their ability to transact in dollars. European energy companies will find their financial pathways into Iran stymied.

An amended deal — especially negotiated by a new president — gives the U.S. a better chance to avoid a future war against a more powerful Iran.

Mark Dubowitz is executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and its Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance. 

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