Anyone who has been watching baseball for more than a couple of weeks should know better than to call any pennant chase over with more than a month left in the season. Just a month ago today, after all, the Toronto Blue Jays sat in fourth place in the AL East at 50-51, trailing the Yankees by eight games. Toronto now leads that division by 1 1/2 games. And there are too many recent examples of late-season surges and slumps that affected postseason races to bother listing here.
Which is all to say, of course, that nearly anything can happen between now and the final day of of the regular season on Oct. 4. But even with that in mind, many of the 2015 postseason spots look more or less secured: According to the postseason odds at Baseball Prospectus — a daily must-visit at this point in the year — the Royals, Astros, Mets and Cardinals all boast over a 90% likelihood of winning their respective divisions. The Pirates (99.4%) and Cubs (92.6%), long out in front of the race for the two NL Wild Cards, both own overwhelming odds of reaching the postseason in some form.
In the AL East, both the Blue Jays (98.5%) and Yankees (92%) appear very likely to reach the playoffs, with one club taking the division and the other earning one of the AL’s Wild Card sports. The Giants still have nearly a 20% chance to overtake the Dodgers in the NL West, and those teams have seven games left between them with only 2 1/2 currently separating them in the standings. So that race looks far from over.
(Anthony Gruppuso/USA TODAY Sports Images)
But the fascinating one should be the hunt for the American League’s second wild card. If the season ended today, it would go to the Texas Rangers. But if the season ended Wednesday, it would have gone to the Minnesota Twins. And if the season ended a week ago, the Angels would have been postseason bound.
Most teams still have around 35 games left to play, and right now there are seven teams within five games of the second AL Wild Card spot, including the Rangers. An eighth club, the Detroit Tigers, sits only 5 1/2 games behind Texas entering play Friday.
As a point of comparison: The Giants, the current runner-up for the second NL Wild Card, are also 5 1/2 games back of the mark. By the odds at Baseball Prospectus, only two National League teams not currently in line for a playoff spot — the Giants and the Nationals — have better than a 1-in-200 chance of getting there.
Meanwhile, none of the Rays, Orioles, Indians, White Sox and Tigers appear out of postseason contention despite holding losing records. The Rangers, Angels and Twins obviously have the best shots at the second Wild Card, but none can boast playoff odds better than Texas’ 34.6%.
(PHOTO: Brian Blanco/Getty Images)
It’s nuts, and it speaks to the incredible parity in the junior circuit.
And though, again, plenty of things can happen in the next couple of weeks to change the dynamic, it suggests that the AL Wild Card race might be fascinating enough in 2015 to make up for all the relatively boring-looking races elsewhere. This is about to get cool.
