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Mets face nearly a no-win situation over Matt Harvey's innings limit

At CBSSports.com, Jon Heyman details a burgeoning he-said, they-said drama over Mets pitcher Matt Harvey’s innings limit in his first season back from the Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2014. Heyman writes:

(Mets GM Sandy) Alderson again suggested the Mets will skip another one of Harvey’s starts, which should still leave him with at least three more regular-season starts, then allow him to pitch some more in the playoffs (but with an eye on what’s reasonable and prudent). That’s according to Alderson, anyway. Boras, meanwhile, says the doctors — including Harvey’s surgeon James Andrews — are putting a 180-inning limit on Harvey, who has 166 1/3 innings already (and a 12-7 record and 2.60 ERA). That would basically mean he only has two more starts to go, playoffs included, in his first year back from Tommy John elbow surgery.

Alderson, however, contends the parties spoke before the season about protecting Harvey by having some innings limitations, and that they “see no reason to deviate from the original plan.” Alderson also says that the Mets had a “soft” limit all along he felt was acceptable to all. He maintains that he has been in consultation with doctors as well….

Both men do agree on one thing, and that is that Harvey badly wants to pitch. Alderson suggests this is all about Boras trying to limit the innings. But Boras said he has nothing to do with the number.

Well, that’s a pickle. And the Mets have already generated controversy every time they took measures to limit Harvey’s innings this season: When they employed a six-man rotation, Harvey himself struggled and blamed (without quite blaming, in a “this-is-no-excuse-but-it’s-totally-an-excuse type way) his inability to find a rhythm pitching on extra rest. When they skipped one of Harvey’s starts in favor of Logan Verrett in the thick of a pennant chase a couple of weeks ago, some said it implied the Mets weren’t serious about contention in 2015 — criticism that disappeared when Verrett threw an eight-inning gem in Colorado.

The Mets have a luxury in a deep rotation rich with young talent, but presumably they’d like to be careful with rookie Noah Syndergaard as well. And ace Jacob deGrom, their likely Game 1 starter in any postseason series, has never thrown more than 180 innings in a single season and is already at 163 in 2015.

And it’s worth noting, too, that the club’s relationship with Boras might be particularly strained right now, after the kerfuffle surrounding one of Boras’ other clients, Carlos Gomez, just before the trade deadline. A widely reported but ultimately failed trade between the Mets and Brewers led to reports that the Mets pulled out over concerns about Gomez’s hips, something that could not have pleased Boras. As early as February, Alderson said that Harvey had no hard innings cap and could pitch up to 200 innings if the Mets reach the postseason.

(PHOTO: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)

(PHOTO: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)

From here, and given the Mets’ particular situation and particular market, it looks like they face nearly a no-win situation involving Harvey in 2015. If they shut down the right-hander and don’t win the World Series, they will certainly be vilified for their prudence. Flags fly forever, as you’ve probably heard, and keeping one of the best pitchers in baseball off the field in the name of future contention seems questionable when there’s absolutely no guarantee the Mets will get back to the postseason in Harvey’s three remaining seasons under team control.

If the Mets ride Harvey into October and don’t win the World Series, they’ll have risked the health of a great young pitcher on behalf of yet another season without a ring. And then, whenever Harvey next endures any sort of muscle strain or elbow tweak or anything worse, local sports-talk radio will explode with callers and hosts blaming the Mets for their 2015 recklessness even if pitchers get hurt all the time and there’s not a ton of evidence that prescribed innings limits do much to prevent that from happening.

The team’s best option, then, would appear to be winning the World Series, with or without Harvey in the rotation. But since that’s no easy trick to pull, the Mets’ best choice for now seems to be limiting Harvey as best as they can during the regular season in a way that allows him to be both rested and on his rhythm for October.

Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard (USA TODAY Sports Images)

The Mets and their fans might still be scarred by the club’s late-season collapses in 2007 and 2008, but Baseball Prospectus currently gives them a 91.5% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their six-game lead in the NL East combined with their wealth of starting pitching seems enough to allow them to be extra cautious with Harvey and Syndergaard — skipping starts, and limiting their outings whenever they do pitch. If the Nationals start closing that gap, they’ll have the flexibility to let Harvey and Syndergaard loose and figure out the postseason when they get to the postseason.

Another factor to consider, of course, is Harvey himself — a guy who pitches while bleeding and refuses to back down from human giants. As Heyman notes, there’s just no doubt Harvey wants to pitch. And if somehow Alderson, Boras and Harvey’s doctors end up agreeing that Harvey shouldn’t pitch in postseason’s bright spotlight, they risk injuring themselves and the pitcher when he inevitably shows up at their homes to kick down their doors and beat the tar out of them.

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