Analysts say 6 million health care enrollees in sight

WASHINGTON — The government will meet — and possibly exceed — its goal of 6 million people enrolled in insurance through the federal and state health exchanges by the March 31 deadline, analysts said Wednesday.

"It's clear that March is going to be better than February," said Dan Mendelson, CEO of Avalere Health, a health care consulting firm. "They could do something over six."

On Tuesday, 1.2 million people visited HealthCare.gov, and the website was able to handle the volume, said Julie Bataille, communication director for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. She said the government expected "unprecedented demand," and the website could handle as many as 100,000 people at a time.

"We're working hard to make sure our system can handle record demand over the next few days," Bataille said.

After February's slower-than-expected enrollment statistics were released this month, Avalere predicted the Department of Health and Human Services would enroll 5.4 million people by March 31. It changed its prediction after seeing marketing efforts by the Obama administration and advocacy groups and the surge of visitors to the federal website this week.

"It's based on the first couple of weeks of March, and frankly, it's based on conversations that we've had with people at CMS who have been very optimistic about the amount of engagement they're getting," Mendelson said. "The health plans, who are our customers, are also really busy. They're telling us that the enrollment in the last couple of weeks has been brisk."

President Obama's appearances on social media, such as the online "Between Two Ferns" interview with actor Zach Galifianakis; ramped-up advertising by the insurers; and more in-person events by states and health care advocates have turned the tide, Mendelson said. "There's been a lot more noise and a lot more engagement, and that's what you need."

"I think we would say it is entirely feasible," said Ceci Connolly, managing director of the Health Research Institute, of the 6 million enrollment goal. "We certainly have seen heavy traffic on the website this week and an incredible amount of attention from the administration."

Though the number is important, she said, insurers will wait to see whether the new enrollees are healthy enough to keep premiums stable.

There has been good news for insurers because more people are signing up directly through them, rather than through the state and federal exchanges.

"That's something that we're hoping to continue digging into," Connolly said. "I don't know that it was fully expected."

Illinois' exchange had 46,251 visitors Tuesday after receiving an average of 10,000 a day in February and 30,000 a day last week, said Sabrina Miller, spokeswoman for Get Covered Illinois.

"So we've almost quadrupled the daily website visitors we've seen since last month," she said. Call center hours were extended until midnight this weekend.

In Washington state, 12,000 people signed up for coverage last week — four times the number in an average week.

Bataille said they've boosted up call centers, which received 390,000 calls Tuesday, with 14,000 employees, including 800 who speak Spanish. The website will include a queuing system in case the system slows down or more than 100,000 people try to access the system at once. If that happens, potential enrollees will be placed at the top of the line and emailed when the site can accommodate them.

Edmund Haislmaier, senior research fellow for health policy at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank, said it's hard to know what the numbers will look like at the end of the week.

"We'll see what we see," he said. "As far as data, we won't see anything for a while that's reliable."

Advocacy groups have increased enrollment events, and members say they're seeing increased attendance as the deadline comes closer.

Planned Parenthood's website about enrollment has had 600,000 visitors, and the group hosted 150 enrollment events last week,said Eric Ferrero, the group's spokesman. This week, there will be 180 events, many of them in Spanish, and the volunteers have taken electronic tablets so people can enroll immediately.

"We are seeing a surge in all measures that we use to track our outreach," said Anne Filipic, president of Enroll America, a group encouraging people to buy health insurance. "Not just in terms of our output, but in attendance at our events."

In El Rio, Texas, Filipic said, 180 families attended a recent enrollment event and "almost all of them" enrolled. In San Antonio, Enroll America and other groups brought 100 navigators to the AlamoDome to help more than 1,000 families enroll in one. On Saturday, 300 people attended an enrollment event at the Jacksonville, Fla., convention center.

"That was double what we've seen in previous weekends," she said. "We are absolutely seeing a surge in interest and enrollment and action by consumers."

The administration extended the deadline Tuesday for those who start the enrollment process but are unable to complete enrollment before midnight next Monday. Those with special circumstances, such as an enrollment error or a health issue that prevented enrollment, may also be able to enroll after the March 31 deadline.

"We're going to help consumers who are in line, either online or on the phones, by March 31 to enroll," Bataille said.

Republicans denounced the move.

"The administration has more precise enrollment numbers than they are publicly sharing," House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said in a statement Wednesday. "It's about time the president and (HHS) Secretary (Kathleen) Sebelius release the full and accurate enrollment data they have access to, so Americans can truly judge the effectiveness of Obamacare."

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