USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Year ends with Trump still in front
Four months of Power Rankings have shown the Republicans presidential field to be remarkably stable.
When we launched this feature Sept. 1 — asking 30 or so political experts who is the strongest candidate in the GOP field each week — the top five were Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz.
As the year comes to a close, in the 18th week of our survey, the top five are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush.
Trump remains at the top of our list, where he has been all but five weeks of the survey. Carson took the top spot in late October but could not hold it even a second week; Carly Fiorina held first place for two weeks at the end of September but quickly faded; Cruz was No. 1 two weeks ago and remains Trump's closest challenger as the year ends.
Perhaps most remarkable is the number of big-name candidates who have never cracked the top of our survey. Bush, Rand Paul and Scott Walker all launched their campaigns with great fanfare and high expectations, but Walker quickly dropped out and Bush and Paul have struggled to generate any momentum. Heading into January, Paul may even be relegated to the "happy hour" stage the next time the Republicans gather for a debate.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
No surprise that there was little movement in the field over the Christmas break, but that will change Jan. 2 as the candidates begin their sprint to the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses.
"It's about to get real," said political analyst Nathan Gonzales. "For months we've said, 'It's a long way to February,' but now it is just a few weeks away. No one predicted this is where we would be with about a month to go, and I'm not sure I trust anyone who claims to know definitively where this race is headed."
WEEK 18 RANKINGS
1. Donald Trump (Last Week: 1)
2. Ted Cruz (2)
3. Marco Rubio (3)
4. Chris Christie (4)
5. Jeb Bush (6)
6. Ben Carson (5)
7. John Kasich (8)
8. Carly Fiorina (7)
9. Rand Paul (9)
10. Mike Huckabee (10)
11. Rick Santorum (11)
12. George Pataki (12)
13. Jim Gilmore (13)
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3
Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6
Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9
Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12
Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15
Week 16 | Week 17
Participants in USA TODAY's GOP Power Rankings:
Kristen Soltis Anderson, Republican pollster and author of The Selfie Vote
Henry Barbour, Republican strategist, Mississippi
Paul Brathwaite, principal, Podesta Group
Dianne Bystrom, director, Center for Women and Politics, Iowa State University
Herman Cain, talk show host and former GOP presidential candidate
Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist and CNN Commentator, The Dewey Square Group
Frank Donatelli, former RNC deputy chairman and Reagan advisor
Sara Fagen, partner, DDC Advocacy
Peter Fenn, Democratic political strategist, Fenn Communications
Denise Feriozzi, deputy executive director, EMILY’s List
Karen Floyd, CEO, The Palladian Group and former South Carolina GOP chair
Aaron Ghitelman, communications manager, HeadCount
Andra Gillespie, polling analyst and political science professor, Emory University
Nathan L. Gonzales, editor, The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report
Lilly J. Goren, political science and global studies professor, Carroll University
Doug Gross, Iowa attorney and previous Republican gubernatorial nominee
O. Kay Henderson, news director, Radio Iowa
Ken Khachigian, senior partner, Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck
Carl Leubsdorf, Washington columnist, The Dallas Morning News
Deb Lucia, Topeka 912 – the Capital City Tea Party
Matt Mackowiak, Republican consultant and president, Potomac Strategy Group, LLC
Dan Maffei, former Democratic congressman, New York
Phil Musser, chairman, IMGE digital media agency
Margie Omero, Democratic pollster, Purple Insights
Jon Ralston, host, "Ralston Live" on PBS affiliates in Nevada
Craig Robinson, founder and editor, TheIowaRepublican.com
Alan Rosenblatt, Ph.D., Sr. VP of digital strategy, turner4D
Dante Scala, political science professor, University of New Hampshire
Adam Sharp, head of news, government and elections, Twitter
Alex Smith, national chairman, College Republicans
Todd Spangler, Washington correspondent, Detroit Free Press
Kathy Sullivan, DNC committeewoman and former Democratic Party chair, New Hampshire
Special thanks to the Palladian Group for building our survey platform.