Blind Study: Comparing three College Football Playoff contenders
It's a crowded race for the College Football Playoff.
Even as a pair of one-loss teams sit inside the hypothetical Playoff field in this week’s rankings, a number of unbeaten and one-loss competitors lurk among the top 15.
Selecting the nation's most deserving teams falls on the shoulders of the 12-member College Football Playoff selection committee, which will comb through reams and reams of data — strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and more — before settling on the best of the best.
The committee could choose to weigh teams namelessly, comparing three contenders by the numbers, statistics and metrics at their disposal. Let's put three teams battling for position in the Playoff race to this blind test.
TEAM A
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 56th
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Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 61st
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 2
Numbers of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 1
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 3
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 67.3
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 6.3 yards per play (3-0)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 4.6 yards allowed per play (1-0)
TEAM B
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: 97th
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 63rd
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 0
Numbers of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 0
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 4
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 78.2
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 7.5 yards per play (1-0)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: N/A
TEAM C
Strength of schedule, NCAA method: T-35th
Strength of schedule, Sagarin ratings: 16th
Number of games vs. current ranked teams (Amway Coaches Poll): 4
Numbers of wins vs. teams in the current Playoff top 25: 2
Number of top-50 Sagarin teams played: 8
Opponents’ average Sagarin rating: 52.7
Offense vs. defenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 5.9 yards per play (2-1)
Defense vs. offenses ranked in the top 25 in yards per play: 7.7 yards allowed per play (3-1)
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A quick clue: All of these teams are inside the top 10 of this week’s College Football Playoff rankings.
They also are the three teams poised to take advantage of a gap in the Playoff field should one of Clemson or Alabama lose on Saturday.
Ready? Here goes:
TEAM A is No. 6 Ohio State.
TEAM B is No. 10 North Carolina.
TEAM C is No. 7 Stanford
The takeaway is simple. Based on the metrics above, Stanford is the clear choice to replace the Tigers or Crimson Tide should a spot become available in a national semifinal.
The strength of schedule is strongly in the Cardinal’s favor. Stanford has played as many current ranked teams, four, as North Carolina has faced teams ranked inside the top 50 of the Sagarin ratings. Stanford will have played 10 bowl teams, counting Southern California twice.
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North Carolina’s résumé would receive a huge boost should the Tar Heels defeat Clemson to win the Atlantic Coast Conference championship, but it wouldn’t be enough to leapfrog Stanford, should the Cardinal win the rematch against USC.
Ohio State’s season is done, as are the Buckeyes’ Playoff hopes should both Stanford and UNC win on Saturday night. To get into the field, Ohio State would need both Florida to beat Alabama, UNC to beat Clemson and USC to beat Stanford; that would leave the Buckeyes battling for the fourth Playoff spot behind UNC, Oklahoma and the Big Ten Conference champion. That’s extremely unlikely.
It’s pretty simple: Stanford’s in the field with a win against USC and a loss by either Clemson or Alabama. UNC’s next in line, followed by the Buckeyes.
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