MLB win totals: How we see the 2016 season unfolding
From April through October, 30 major league teams will contest 2,430 games and pay out some $3.7 billion in player salaries in the hope they win a few more than they lose, catch a fortuitous bounce or two and – should everything break just right – find their way into the playoffs.
Projecting just how those games turn out is a foolhardy endeavor, certainly, but much of the joy in baseball is the anticipation, visualizing the months ahead and then reveling in how right – or so very wrong – February’s conventional wisdom turned out to be.
With that, USA TODAY Sports presents its 2016 projected win totals for every team, an exercise intended to provide a road map to the season ahead, with equal doses of probability, pragmatism and passion.
Unlike Las Vegas, our win totals are based on exactly how many games we think each team will win – with no need to make adjustments for the betting public’s anticipated reaction. And unlike the many excellent projection models out there, we are not beholden to formulas capable of producing strikingly accurate statistical projections, but lack an occasionally necessary human element.
We’ll take the liberty of adding a dash of what we’ll call Projected Unforeseen Events, those little miracles or disasters that provide the subtext of every season. Come October, we’ll see how it turned out.
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And while it’s true that, as they say, you can’t predict ball, there’s no harm in trying.
Our major league standings, and division-by-division explainers:
AL East
The David Price acquisition and slick bullpen remodel is reason enough to love a renaissance for the Red Sox (88 wins). There’s also significant upside all over the roster, from bounce-back candidates in Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Clay Buchholz and Rick Porcello to the potential MVP ceiling of Mookie Betts. Their enviable depth in the outfield and starting pitching in the upper minor leagues allows for adversity. That doesn’t mean we hate the defending champion Blue Jays (86 wins). It’s just that there’s no more firepower to swing a Price-like deal come July, and six of the most important members of their major league-best offense are between 30 and 35.
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The Rays (84 wins) will never surprise anyone again; now, they’re baseball’s mystery meat, an amalgam of quality depth that makes you wonder if they’ll win 75 or 95 games. We like ‘em in the middle, thanks to a rotation that may roll nine-deep in great arms over the course of the year. There’s nothing to dislike about the Yankees (83 wins). So why deduct four wins from 2015? They got 52 homers from Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran, who turn 41 and 39 this year, and there’s too many ticking time bombs in the rotation. The Orioles (77 wins) got the max out of their best player– Manny Machado played in 162 games, hit 35 homers and had an .861 OPS. That got them a .500 record, and there’s potential regression all over the roster. Right-hander Miguel Gonzalez’s career Fielding Independent Pitching is an abysmal 5.01; even the signing of Yovani Gallardo wouldn’t bump him out of a shaky rotation.
AL Central
Welcome to hell – both for prognosticators and five teams with legitimate playoff hopes. This is baseball’s deepest division, with five teams capable of winning it – and almost as many that could finish last. We feel random things happening, so hello, White Sox (90 wins). Everyone loves their Todd Frazier acquisition, and the ball should jump off his bat at U.S. Cellular Field. We prefer the possibly unparalleled 1-2 rotation punch of Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, backed by a full season of Carlos Rodon, who struck out 139 batters in 139 1/3 innings as a rookie. Our fetish for Pale Hose should not be seen as a diss toward the Royals (84 wins). It’s just really hard to repeat, particularly as a mid-market team lacking depth. We’d be thrilled if they proved us wrong.
One of these years, it will all come together for the Indians (83 wins) – most likely in 2018, when an imposing crop of prospects coalesces. In 2016? It feels like they’re one bat short of greatness. The Tigers (82 wins) got that big bat in Justin Upton; it’s the questionable Nos. 3-5 starters (Anibal Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Mike Pelfrey) and thin organizational depth that’s worrisome. And our apologies to the Twins (80 wins), who wouldn’t surprise us if they produce an MVP (Miguel Sano) and Rookie of the Year (Jose Berrios).
AL West
If you’re assuming 90 wins for the Astros is an endorsement of Carlos Correa’s talents unleashed over a full 162 games, you’d be assuming correctly. The rotation feels sketchy near the back, but the best pitcher in the AL takes the ball at the front. Speaking of aces, the 85 wins for the Rangers could be bumped up if Yu Darvish is his old self sooner rather than later. Until then, the dropoff from Cole Hamels and Derek Holland is too severe. Fiscal discipline wasn’t a great look for the Angels (83 wins), who remade the left side of their infield (Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar) but have far too many holes. Their season hinges on quality outings from C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver. So.
New GM Jerry Dipoto took some nice steps forward this winter, but the purge in Seattle is not yet complete. So the Mariners (77 wins) take some lumps. Meanwhile, the Athletics (66 wins) are counting on Rich Hill, Kendall Graveman, Chris Bassitt and others pitching well enough to make it worth keeping Sonny Gray around long-term.
NL East
Plenty of drama in D.C. this year, and we wonder what’s more likely: President Obama gets a Supreme Court nominee past a stonewalling Senate, or Stephen Strasburg wins a Cy Young Award before skipping town. We say it all comes together for Strasburg just in time for free agency, Anthony Rendon stays healthy, Dusty Baker keeps everyone sane and the Nationals (89 wins) fulfill their destiny a year later than imagined. So where does that leave the Mets (87 wins)? Their pennant was no fluke, but suddenly their lineup is getting older (six regulars on the wrong side of 30) while their sublime starting pitching is still subject to youthful volatility. A 50% leap in innings for Noah Syndergaard is concerning. Steven Matz has never eclipsed 140 innings. At 43, Bartolo Colon will be a meme machine, but a sub-optimal fifth starter.
Meanwhile, in no-man’s land, the Marlins (78) stare up at two juggernauts and down at two teams retrenching in a hurry, while Jose Fernandez racks up a fourth year of service time with a horrid farm system backing him. The mayors of Philadelphia and Atlanta should place a wager on who finishes fourth. We like the Braves (66 wins) by a biscuit, thanks largely to the track record of their position players. The Phillies (61 wins) deserve better than a 100-loss season after their deft rebuilding moves to date. Alas, the pitching shortcomings deep in their staff are too severe.
NL Central
It may become trendy to knock the Cubs (101 wins) down a peg, but there’s just too much going on here. Beyond the obvious, we see a bullpen well-equipped to deal with back-end rotation shortcomings. And when they add one more starter in July, see you later. That’s not to say the Cardinals (97 wins) should pack it in. Absurdly deep, they will platoon and pitch almost everybody into submission – and hope things go differently at Wrigley Field in October.
Has the window closed for the Pirates (88 wins)? No, but this may be a “gap year” between three straight playoff clubs and a future brightened by a group of nearly-ready prospects. Top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow could be crucial, as veteran acquisitions Ryan Vogelsong and Jonathan Niese will test the miracle-working power of pitching coach Ray Searage. The division’s big three need punching bags, and that’s where the Brewers (64 wins) and Reds (61 wins) come in. Milwaukee’s pitching is even worse upon closer inspection, and the exporting of proven big leaguers will continue as the season goes on. The Reds acquired enough useful parts and have enough proven holdovers to think a not-so-bad 75-win season could emerge. But a bullpen anchored by Jumbo Diaz will give back a lot of wins.
NL West
Sometimes, it’s not a trick question. The Giants (90 wins) are the most stable, sound organization in baseball, reflected by these win totals since 2009: 88, 92, 86, 94, 76, 88, 84. It may seem like an SF-LA coin flip to determine this division, but it shouldn’t be that close. Cohesion matters. Defense matters. Pitching matters. We like all of it better up north. Don’t weep for the Dodgers (88 wins), however. Sure, they’d be better off if the rules allowed a 35-man roster. But they still have Clayton Kershaw, and all that depth will pay off – perhaps even in October.
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The Diamondbacks (86 wins) are fearless and don’t care what anyone thinks – and their admirably brazen approach almost works this year. Whether Zack Greinke is pitching for a playoff spot or merely messing with the Giants and Dodgers, he’ll be a blast to watch in September. If you’re the Padres (73 wins) or Rockies (62 wins), this is your reality: 57 games against the Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks, with a former All-Star penciled in to start 42 of them.
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