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New Hampshire Primary

Top takeaways from the New Hampshire primary

Cooper Allen, and Paul Singer
USA TODAY

After many months of suspense, the outcome was apparent right away: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders were the big winners. But exactly how Tuesday's results will change the 2016 presidential race may not be clear for days or even weeks.

Here are top takeaways from the New Hampshire:

Sorry, establishment – Trump is for real

Donald Trump gives thumbs up to supporters during a primary night rally in Manchester, N.H., on Feb. 9, 2016.

Since he first entered the race last summer, serious political people have predicted over and over again that the Trump balloon was just about to burst.

His loss in Iowa raised the first hint that perhaps the polls were wrong and his support was not as strong as it had appeared to be for months.

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New Hampshire dashed that notion.

Trump won with 35% of the vote, higher than almost all of the last 10 polls in the state. He doubled the vote of his closest competitor.

The South Carolina primary is up next for Republicans, and Trump leads in the polls there by 15 or 20 points. If he can match or exceed his poll numbers again, the Republican Party may be in for a very long and very contentious nomination fight.

Kasich claims a good night for Nice

John Kasich greets supporters at his watch party in Concord, N.H., on Feb. 9, 2016.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich declared his distant second-place finish to be a victory, and rightly so: He came out ahead of everybody but Trump. And he called it a victory for his positive, upbeat message. “Tonight, the light overcame the darkness" of negative campaigning, he told supporters afterward. Kasich said the best part of his campaign was the town halls where people came and “felt safe” and could share their problems with him. He vowed to slow down and spend more time in these personal, “healing” conversations with supporters.

Only trouble is, New Hampshire is a small state and he did 100 town halls there over a period of months, Hard to see how that “slow down” approach is going to work as the primary calendar picks up speed, the states get bigger and Super Tuesday looms March 1 with contests in 11 states. If Kasich’s pitch is that everybody who gets to know him votes for him, there is just not enough time for him to get to know everybody he needs to make him a winner nationwide.

Debates matter

Marco Rubio speaks during his primary night rally in  Manchester, N.H., on Feb. 9, 2016.

After a lousy Saturday debate performance, Marco Rubio was unable to build on the momentum of his surprisingly strong third-place Iowa finish. If he had been third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, he could claim to be moving in the right direction. Instead he winds up fifth in New Hampshire and with no state on the immediate horizon that looks like a win for him.

Rubio acknowledged the damage Saturday's debate may have done in his speech Tuesday night. “I did not do well on Saturday night, so let me tell you this: That will never happen again.”

While Rubio may not repeat the same mistakes again, the damage from Saturday's debate could prove lasting to his brand. Chris Christie hammered home the point that Rubio has only memorized talking points and had no actual accomplishments, immediately giving birth to a campaign meme. Hecklers dressed as “Rubio Robots” chased him around New Hampshire over the last couple of days, and it is likely he will have a robot on his heels no matter where he goes for the next few weeks.

Jeb Bush – Meh

Jeb Bush speaks during a primary night rally on Feb. 9, 2016, in Manchester, N.H.

Bush makes it into the top five in New Hampshire, which is not a strong enough finish to claim victory, but not a complete disaster that would force him to immediately drop out of the race.

The good news for the former Florida governor is he'll likely finish just ahead of Rubio, which was long considered a benchmark for Bush's success in the Granite State. But beating a Rubio weakened by Saturday's debate no longer looks like the win it did after Iowa when the Florida senator seemed to have the wind at his back, poised to become the establishment alternative to Trump and Ted Cruz, the Iowa winner.

It's also hard to spin a third- or fourth-place finish for Bush as a positive, given the many millions of dollars he spent here and the fact that he led in the state last summer. But for now, he presses on to South Carolina.

Young people are with Sanders

Bernie Sanders speaks on stage after declaring victory over Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9, 2016, in Concord, N.H.

This wasn't a surprise, but Tuesday illustrated just how powerful the Vermont senator's appeal with young people is what it could mean for his campaign going forward. Sanders carried more than 80% of voters ages 18 to 29, far better than Obama fared eight years earlier.

Young people have lifted Democratic candidates to the nomination before — see Obama in 2008 and George McGovern in 1972 — and Clinton seemed fully aware Tuesday night that she would need to strengthen her appeal with young voters.

“I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people," she told supporters.

It's clear Sanders has emerged as the favorite of younger generations in the 2016 Democratic race, just as Obama did in his successful run against Clinton in 2008. She doesn't have to win them all over, but she can't afford to lose 80% of them in future contests.

Clinton ready for more diverse electorate

Hillary Clinton speaks at her primary rally on Feb. 9, 2016, in Hooksett, N.H.

It's been clear for a while that Iowa and New Hampshire set up particularly well for Sanders, and that as the electorate grows more diverse, she would figure to gain.

We'll soon find out just how true that conventional wisdom is. On Feb. 20, the race moves to Nevada, where 30% of caucusgoers in 2008 were either African American or Hispanic. A week later, it's on to South Carolina, where more than half of primary voters were African American eight years ago. Can Clinton, as has long been believed, carry these voters by large enough margins to overcome Sanders' advantage with young people? If New Hampshire is any indication, she'll certainly need to.

Sanders' policies may get more scrutiny now

People cheer as results come in at the primary night watch party for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in Concord, N.H.

It may be a celebration Tuesday night, but winning the New Hampshire primary will undoubtedly bring a new degree of scrutiny to Sanders and his proposals. His anti-Wall Street populism has translated into huge crowds, and now, significant support at the polls. But his policies and record will likely be given a new round of scrutiny now that he's emerged as a much more plausible contender for the Democratic nomination.

Clinton has emphasized her pitch that she's a progressive who can get things done. But will she now pivot to an electability argument? That may particularly be a powerful argument given Trump as the possible Republican nominee. Would Democrats risk, she may argue, a President Trump by nominating a Democratic socialist?

Contributing: Ray Locker

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