Analysis: New Hampshire results keep nomination races fluid

This may take awhile.

Victories by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, so decisive they were projected by the Associated Press and the TV networks the moment the polls closed, demonstrated beyond any doubt how dissatisfied voters are with the political status quo and how deeply split both the Democratic and Republican parties are.

What the results in New Hampshire and in Iowa last week didn't resolve with any certainty, however, was which candidate ultimately will prevail for the nominations, or even what sort of electoral coalition each party is likely to forge in November.

Sanders says N.H. win 'will echo from Wall Street to Washington'

Trump takes N.H. and predicts more wins to come, as Kasich finishes second

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Neither winner of the first contests in Iowa — Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton — won the second one.

Now the most unconventional presidential contest in a generation heads to different regions, bigger states, a faster pace and a larger field of candidates on the Republican side than usually survives past this point. Next up: Nevada and South Carolina.

In a race as fluid as this one, why would anyone drop out before they absolutely had to?

“This is the most unpredictable election that I have ever seen,” Arizona Sen. John McCain, a candidate himself in unpredictable Republican nomination battles in 2000 and 2008, said in a session with reporters on the news site sidewire.com. Democratic strategist Robert Shrum, who has helped run a string of presidential campaigns, said in an interview, “This is not like anything I’ve ever seen, to be honest.”

When their candidacies were launched last year, the suggestion that New Hampshire Republicans would support a real-estate mogul and reality-TV star — a contender who not only has never run for office before but also hasn’t voted in a Republican primary in decades — would have seemed fanciful. Predictions that New Hampshire Democrats would back a 74-year-old senator who had never actually belonged to the Democratic Party would have seemed equally unlikely.

But both Trump and Sanders have tapped into a strong sense that the United States has gotten seriously off track, that Wall Street controls Washington, that their families are threatened in an increasingly dangerous world, and that the concept of the American dream is now more history lesson than reality for kids today.

The economy was the top concern in both parties, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places. That was especially true of Democrats, where a third of voters cited income inequality in particular as their top issue — Sanders has been hammering that — and another third cited the economy in general.

Trump drew support not only from reliable Republicans but also from those who aren’t, a sign that the billionaire businessman could reshape the GOP if he ends up as its nominee. He drew the largest share in field of those who were voting for in the Republican primary for the first time. He won the most independents. He drew strong support among voters with less education and lower incomes, not always GOP supporters.

Nearly half of Republican voters said they were looking for a candidate “outside the political establishment,” and a similar number said they felt “betrayed” by the GOP. Both groups backed Trump over any of his rivals.

By more than 2-1, they agreed with one of Trump’s most controversial proposals, to ban all Muslims from entering the United States.

Trump’s coalition was starkly different from those who backed his more establishment rivals. Second-place finisher John Kasich drew support among those who opposed banning all Muslims from entering the United States — perhaps Trump’s most controversial proposal — and among moderates and highly educated voters. He did well among those looking for a candidate with experience rather than an outsider.

John Kasich finishes 2nd in New Hampshire primary, vaulting to prominence in GOP race

Kasich and others vying for mainstream support, including former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, finished far behind Trump but within a few percentage points of one another. That means none of them seems likely to suspend their campaigns before the next set of contests — good news for Trump by splintering the voters who don’t support him.

(Big contributors may have something to say about that, though. “How do seven or eight candidates keep getting their donors to re-up?” Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, asked in an interview. “Here’s really the question: What states are you going to win?”)

On the Democratic side, too, Sanders and Clinton offered different visions of the party. Sanders carried younger voters under 30 overwhelmingly, by 5-1; Clinton carried seniors 65 and older by double digits. Sanders won most of the liberals; Clinton won most of the moderates. Sanders won among the lowest-income voters; Clinton won among the most affluent ones. Sanders carried independent voters by 3-1.

And in a critical question, four in 10 Democratic voters said they wanted to continue President Obama’s policies, which has been Clinton’s stance, but another four in 10 said they wanted to pursue more liberal ones. That’s been Sanders’ battle cry.

The next three weeks will be crucial. On the Democratic side, the Nevada caucuses are next, in 10 days. The Sanders campaign sees that as a prime opportunity in the challenge to Clinton, who had been viewed initially as the all-but-inevitable nominee.

“We’re trying to win Nevada,” said Sanders strategist Tad Devine. “A ‘rigged economy’ resonates with extraordinary power in Nevada,” in a state where many communities still haven’t recovered from the housing market meltdown that hit in 2008. He said the senator also was making “enormous progress” with the Latinos who are a significant political force in the Silver State. “This is a story — the son of an immigrant — that impacts the agenda of people who are trying to make a life here.”

Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network

A week later, on Feb. 27, Democrats hold their primary in South Carolina. The Clinton campaign describes the Palmetto State, where African-American voters make up a majority of the Democratic electorate, as a firewall she is all but sure to win. She and husband Bill Clinton have deep roots in the black community. Sanders has begun to cultivate them, emphasizing his work in the civil rights movement in the 1960s.

On the Republican side, the South Carolina primary is next, in 10 days — the first Southern contest in a party that has a Southern base, and a region where Texas Sen. Cruz has built a deep organization and could be a good fit. Since it moved to up in the calendar in 1980, the state’s primary has been won by the ultimate Republican nominee every year except one, in 2012. The GOP caucuses in Nevada follow three days later.

Then, Super Tuesday is on March 1. Fourteen states will hold contests, including a swath of primaries across the Sunbelt, in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. There also are other contests in Massachusetts, Minnesota and Sanders’ home state of Vermont.

At that point, more than a fourth of the Democratic convention delegates and nearly a third of the Republican convention delegates will have been elected. By then, said GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg, a campaign veteran, it should be clear whether someone is the all-but-certain nominee — or if next summer might bring the first contested national convention in decades.

A contested GOP convention � political junkie's dream, politico's nightmare

“Together we have sent a message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California,” Sanders declared to a rally of triumphant supporters.

“Wow, wow, wow," Trump told his own cheering rally a few minutes later. “We are going to win in South Carolina.”

The Next Chapter

Saturday, Feb. 20

Nevada caucuses – Democrat
South Carolina primary – Republican

Tuesday, Feb. 23

Nevada caucuses – Republican

Saturday, Feb. 27

South Carolina primary – Democrat

Tuesday, March 1 – Super Tuesday

Alabama primary
Alaska caucuses
American Samoa caucuses – Democrat
Arkansas primary
Colorado caucuses
Georgia primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota caucuses
North Dakota caucuses - Republican
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
Wyoming caucuses – Republican