MLB summer 2016: What we know now, and what happens next

The barbecue grill still is caked with burnt meat. The trash cans in the backyard are filled with empty soda pop and beer cans. The dirty dishes remain stacked in the sink.

Now that Memorial Day weekend is over, rookie Alexander Rossi has become a household name after his Indy 500 victory and order has been restored in the NBA, it’s time to look at baseball as its nears the one-third mark.

We have reached the point where it’s not simply a fast or slow start, an aberration or anomaly, but an actual trend.

We can say with pride - and a whole lot of luck - that every current division leader but the Kansas City Royals, were our picks to win their division. Our World Series pick was a Chicago Cubs-Boston Red Sox matchup. It sure beats a year ago, when our Seattle Mariners-Miami Marlins World Series pick became the brunt of jokes by May.

Now, as we wait to see if the Cubs can eclipse the 2001 Mariners for the most victories, David Ortiz becomes the greatest 40-year-old in baseball history, and Clayton Kershaw manages to make the immortal Sandy Koufax look like a journeyman, let’s take a look at what we thought we knew going into the season, and what we now know after two months.

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Then: The Chicago Cubs would be awfully, awfully good.

POWER RANKINGS:Cubs No. 1, Giants knocking on door

Now: The Cubs (35-14) are even better than anyone possibly envisioned. They are off to their best start since 1907. If they continue at this pace, the defending NL Central champs, the St. Louis Cardinals, will have to go 89-21 simply to tie them.

They not only have the lowest ERA in baseball, but are the first team since the 1972 Dodgers to enter June with five starters yielding an ERA of 3.16 or lower, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. On a team filled with potential MVPs, theirs has been 35-year-old second baseman Ben Zobrist, who’s batting .351 with a league-leading .452 on-base percentage.

Cubs’ memo to Cardinals in NL Central: We are for real

Then: The Kansas City Royals would make fools out of projection systems once again.

Now: This is extreme, even for the Royals. Here’s a team that lost three of their All-Stars in a week, including two in one nasty collision - with third baseman Mike Moustakas tearing his ACL and left fielder Alex Gordon breaking his hand. At least Gordon and catcher Salvador Perez (bruised quad) will return.

So amid an injury wave that could have ended their chances of an American League three-peat, they win 11 of their last 14 games, and vault back into first place in the AL Central.

Then: Alex Rodriguez would have to duplicate his surprising 2015 success and Mark Teixeira would have to stay healthy for the New York Yankees to reach the postseason.

Now: A-Rod and Teixeira are no David Ortizes.

The Yankees, who finished second in the major leagues in runs scored a year ago, are second-to-last in the AL at 3.88 per game. They have scored two or fewer runs a league-high 21 times, and are 27th in the major leagues with a .377 slugging percentage.

Rodriguez, who spent three weeks on the DL, is hitting .170. Teixeira, who has been battling a stiff neck, is hitting .195, and has gone a career-long 125 at-bats and 36 games since his last homer. A year ago at this time, they had 25 homers and 62 RBI. Today, they have nine homers and 27 RBI.

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Then: Ortiz picked the right time to announce this retirement and would hit like any other 40-year-old in his final season.

Now: This may be the finest farewell in baseball history.

He’s hitting .337 with 14 homers and 47 RBI, with a league-leading on-base percentage of .419 and slugging percentage of .724. He still refuses to waver on his retirement plans, but he sure is making everyone else with the Red Sox try to change his mind.

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Then: Bryce Harper’s $500 million campaign would just be getting started, and he’d produce another MVP season en route to the Nationals’ NL East title.

Now: Drawing walks gets old, especially for a 23-year-old. Harper was walked 31 times in May, and he hit just .200 with only five extra-base hits, including 26 strikeouts in 80 at-bats. No one expects Harper’s slump to last, but until someone can consistently produce behind him, the walks will continue.

Nationals ponder differing 'wants and needs' of Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg

Then: The Los Angeles Dodgers would be Clayton Kershaw and the Four Mouseketeers in the rotation.

Now: Yes, even with the flashes of excellence by Kenta Maeda. The Dodgers are 10-1 in Kershaw’s starts, 17-24 when everyone else starts. They need Julio Urias or someone to rescue them if they’re to stay with the San Francisco Giants in the NL West race.

Then: The Houston Astros, the biggest surprise in 2015, would battle the Texas Rangers for the AL West title.

Now: Instead of an ambush, they’ll need a revival.

It took the Astros six weeks just to win consecutive games, but now they have won six of seven as their pitching’s yielded three or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games, finishing a 16-12 May.

They play just nine games in June against clubs with winning records; center fielder Carlos Gomez, hitting .182 with no homers and 46 strikeouts in 121 at-bats, returned Tuesday from a rib cage injury.

Then: The Pittsburgh Pirates, your perennial host for the wild-card game, would regress into obscurity once again.

Now: It’s foolish to ever count out the Pirates and manager Clint Hurdle. They not only have a star-studded lineup and deep bench, but pitching prospects Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl lurking as prized reinforcements.

Then: The Seattle Mariners would surprisingly contend all season.

Now: They’re a bit schizophrenic.

They would be absolutely schizophrenic. How can the Mariners possibly look so good in going 18-7 on the road, and return home to be swept one weekend by the Oakland A’s, another by the Los Angeles Angels and the next by the hapless Minnesota Twins?

They are just 11-14 at Safeco Field, and we’re done trying to figure these guys out.

Then: The Atlanta Braves would be terrible.

Now It’s worse than anyone could have imagined. The Braves are 5-1 against the Marlins this year, and 10-34 against everyone else.

Then: The Phillies would be just as bad as the Braves.

Now: Just how does one produce a winning record despite being outscored by 44 runs? Oh, sure, it won’t last, not with this putrid offense. If they somehow finish above .500, Pete Mackanin could be manager of the year.

No, the Phillies are not terrible, tank you very much

Then: The Giants made a shrewd move signing free-agent starters Johnny Cueto, despite teams shying away from him after struggling in Kansas City.

Now: It may have been the best $130 million they ever spent. Cueto has been brilliant, going 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA, including three complete games, and going at least seven innings in nine of his 11 starts. He’s a huge reason, along with fellow starters Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, that the Giants could be the Cubs’ worst nightmare in October.

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