Trump on track to win GOP Hispanic vote: Column

San Diego — As I watched the Donald Trump photo-op at the U.S.-Mexico border in Laredo, Texas, last week, where the 2016 election’s answer to P.T. Barnum backslapped grinning Mexican-American city officials, it occurred to me that news media commentators and political observers should stop mocking Trump's claim that he will win the Hispanic vote.

It could happen — not in the general election, but at least in the Republican primary.

Hispanics for Trump. Imagine seeing those words on a bumper sticker. Given that the billionaire businessman exploded onto the political scene on June 16 with an anti-Mexico screed in which he accused our southern neighbor of “sending people that have lots of problems” who bring drugs and crime, and that he quickly became persona non grata with many Hispanics in the United States no matter what country their parents or grandparents came from, Trump would seem to have a steep hill to climb to earn a second look from America’s largest minority.

In a recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, just 13% of Hispanics had a positive opinion of the real-estate mogul, while 81% had a negative view. Compare that with the overall number where 33% of all those surveyed had a favorable view of Trump, while 61% did not.

Unfazed, Trump insists he’s a shoo-in for Hispanic support, and the reason comes down to one word: jobs.

“I’ll bring the jobs back,” Trump said at a news conference in Laredo. “And, you know, the Hispanics are going to get those jobs. And they’re going to love Trump. They already do.”

Really? I’m Hispanic, and I don’t love Trump. Although I’m glad he realizes that, in America, the place you’re most likely to find Hispanics is on the job. That’s a forceful rebuttal to those who insist that Hispanic immigrants come here for welfare.

But there is some good news for Trump, and it comes from the Southwest — which is populated by Mexicans and Mexican Americans who, while registered overwhelmingly as Democrats, have shown a willingness to vote for Republicans from George W. Bush in Texas to Arnold Schwarzenegger in California.

Given that the first three states holding caucuses or primaries — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — have small percentages of Hispanics, the first test for Hispanic support will be in Nevada. Given that many restaurant, hotel and casino workers are Hispanic, and that many of them are presumably familiar with the Trump brand, which they consider synonymous with “success,” the billionaire businessman could get on a lucky streak in the Silver State.

Indeed, a new poll of GOP primary voters in Nevada by One America News Network shows Trump in first place among Hispanics. He was the choice of 27.7% of respondents overall. But, among Hispanics, the figure jumped to 31.4%. That showing did not escape Trump, who mentions the poll often.

There are at least three reasons that Trump is likely to make a decent showing with Hispanic voters:

• What’s the Republican alternative? Will Hispanics flock in droves to Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, or much of the rest of the GOP presidential field? Not likely. Only two of the other 15 "also rans" could get in Trump's way with Hispanics in the GOP primaries: Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush. And instead of speaking forthrightly about issues such as immigration, the Floridians often seem cautious and reserved in their comments as if they’re afraid of alienating white people. Here’s a warning to them, and politicians everywhere: When you flinch, Hispanics notice.  
• Trump’s immigration hard line is not a deal killer with all Hispanics, many of whom want stricter border security. More than half of all Border Patrol agents  — about 52% — are Hispanic. Moreover, the closer you get to the border, the more likely you are to find Hispanics who worry about the issue that Trump brought to light: the alleged criminal element coming across the border. That was true in Arizona, where a controversial immigration law requiring police to check the legal status of anyone with whom they came in contact found pockets of support among those who lived on the front lines.  
• Hispanics are just like other Americans. And why not? In New Mexico and Arizona, some trace their family histories back seven or eight generations. Thus what appeals to many other people about Trump also appeals to them. Hispanics have been deceived and manipulated by both parties. And they’re hungry for a candidate who says what he thinks, doesn’t back down, hammers the news media, and doesn’t sugarcoat differences with opponents. Apart from substance, Trump will get points for his style which — during a hot summer — seems as refreshing as a cool breeze.

Hispanics for Trump? Oh yeah. Get ready. That’s a thing.

Ruben Navarrette Jr. is a columnist with The Daily Beast, a nationally syndicated columnist with the Washington Post Writers Group, and the author ofA Darker Shade of Crimson: Odyssey of a Harvard Chicano.

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