For long-shot Kasich, S.C. a chance to spread message

CLEMSON, S.C. — South Carolina was supposed to be too conservative for John Kasich.

In many ways, it is. Kasich is averaging less than 10% in recent GOP polls here and doesn’t expect to repeat his New Hampshire runner-up performance when South Carolina Republicans vote Saturday in the GOP’s third nominating contest. Donald Trump is expected to win, and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are battling for second place.

But if New Hampshire was the place where Americans first noticed Kasich, South Carolina could turn out to be the place where his message finally caught on.

Southern conservatives may oppose Kasich’s stances on Medicaid expansion and immigration. But enough of the state's moderates, often warm-weather retirees, have turned to him over the past week and a half that South Carolina’s early primary may allow him to knock off a key rival, Jeb Bush. Meanwhile, he's getting national attention for his reluctance to criticize opponents and his broad message of neighborliness, compassionate government and problem solving.

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Since finishing second in New Hampshire — in many ways, his first chance to address the nation with credibility as a candidate — Kasich has stayed out of near-shouting matches in a GOP debate and has gotten a chance to share his conversational town-hall style with a national television audience. He has finally cracked the top four in national polls and has gained enough name recognition that independents are telling pollsters they would like to vote for him over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the general election.

And then there was the hug.

'HOPE' IN KASICH

For months, Kasich has exhorted groups of voters about reaching out to people who are lonely or experiencing pain. This message is his answer to questions on topics that range from gun violence to education to health care for the elderly. Be good neighbors, he says. Take responsibility for making a difference in your community.

Sometimes he brings up his own battle with darkness and loneliness after his parents died in a collision with a drunken driver. And yes, sometimes Kasich hugs the people asking the question.

It can be awkward. But it can also be moving. At its core lies the transformation Kasich has undergone as the town-hall candidate, interacting with hundreds of everyday voters and hearing whatever concerns they raise, in a way he rarely had as Ohio governor.

The approach attracted a University of Georgia student, later identified as 21-year-old Brett Smith, who drove the hour and a half to Clemson University on Thursday for a Kasich town-hall meeting.

Smith told Kasich he had had a rough year or so: A father figure had died after a suicide, his parents had divorced and his father had lost his job.

“I was in a really dark place,” Smith said, his voice breaking. “But I found hope. I found it in the Lord and in my friends. And now I’ve found it in my presidential candidate that I support. And I’d really appreciate one of those hugs you’ve been talking about.”

Kasich had already walked off the stage to approach Smith. They embraced a full 18 seconds, tears in the corners of Kasich’s eyes. “The Lord will give you strength,” Kasich spoke in Smith’s ear as they hugged.

“We don’t have enough people who sit down and cry with that young man,” Kasich then told the crowd of 300. “As Americans, let’s renew our spirit. Let’s care about one another and not be disconnected. And together we will rise this country from a position of where we doubt to a position again, being Americans, where we are so confident of the future.”

The hug made newsreels and headlines and was an opening topic at the CNN town-hall event later that evening.

STILL TRUMP'S STATE

The mostly moderate voters at Kasich's town-hall meetings typically cite his “reasonable” approach to controversial issues, his experience in budgeting and his disinclination to criticize opponents. To a one, potential Kasich voters say they are not fazed by his support for Medicaid expansion. As in New Hampshire, many of them say they are choosing between Kasich and voting in the Democratic primary a week from Saturday.

“As an African-American woman, it’s not typical for us to vote Republican,” said Clemson student Rianne Bonner, 22, a political science major who is also considering Democrat Bernie Sanders. “Even though (Kasich’s) economic policies are very conservative, his social policies are more toward the middle. What he says makes sense.”

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True, this is still the state — and the party — where the largest share of voters is supporting Trump. The controversial billionaire holds a double-digit lead over all comers and is expected to win Saturday. Most of South Carolina's 50 delegates will go to the overall winner, but other candidates can win three delegates for each individual congressional district they win.

And true, this is still the state — and the party — throwing new momentum behind Rubio. The Florida senator is rebounding from a poor debate and weak New Hampshire primary showing. He’s now locked with Cruz in a battle for second place in South Carolina and is once again making a case that he can unite the anti-Trump and anti-Cruz forces in the GOP.

'A KASICH LANE'

Still, Kasich’s team insists his moment is coming, insists the race has space for both him and Rubio. Pundits “try to say, ‘There’s two lanes. There’s the establishment lane, and the anti-establishment lane,’ ” Kasich said Thursday, as he has repeatedly in the past couple of weeks. “A ‘Kasich lane’ is someone who’s never been in the favor of the establishment.”

For now, Team Kasich is hoping South Carolina voters can weed out Kasich’s closest competitor, Bush, in a bloodbath with Rubio. Only one of the two Floridians can emerge from the Palmetto State, Rep. Mark Sanford, formerly South Carolina’s governor, told reporters ahead of last week’s debate in Greenville.

Kasich himself has sought to stay out of the fray, but Bush’s allies and advisers have launched attack ads and lashed out at Kasich as well as Rubio. Kasich’s super PAC has struck back in ads that criticize Bush for slinging “mud,” and his advisers have ridiculed Bush on social media.

With Bush out of the race, the strategy goes, Kasich could focus on a couple of Northeast wins on Super Tuesday and could then sweep to prominence by winning Michigan on March 8 and Ohio on March 15. Ohio polls, the most recent taken last fall, have shown a path for a Kasich victory. In Michigan, recent polls have shown Trump with a double-digit lead, with Kasich contending for second place.

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Meanwhile, Kasich could continue to get national attention by avoiding attacks on other opponents in debates and campaign events.

“We’re the only campaign that seems to be following the plan that they started the campaign with, and we’re going to continue to follow that plan,” Kasich strategist John Weaver said.

A showdown with Rubio could come at some point, in which Kasich would emphasize his experience, pragmatism and unscripted style. But Rubio faces his own must-win situation March 15: The Florida primary is the same day as Kasich's must-win in Ohio.

Even if Kasich could prevail over Rubio, he’d still have Trump and possibly Cruz to contend with. He's at a significant disadvantage to the anti-establishment candidates. After all, since Iowa first kicked off GOP voting in 1976, no Republican has won the nomination without prevailing in Iowa or New Hampshire. And Trump’s likely win in South Carolina could carry even more weight: Only once since 1980 has the Palmetto State failed to tap the eventual GOP nominee.

Contributing: Amanda Coyne, The Greenville News, and David Jackson, USA TODAY