Stanford devastates Notre Dame's Playoff hopes at last second

PALO ALTO, Calif. — Breaking down No. 12 Stanford's 38-36 win Saturday against No. 4 Notre Dame:

THE BIG PICTURE: With one eye on Stillwater, Okla., Notre Dame and Stanford met in a College Football Playoff eliminator. After a Notre Dame touchdown gave the Fighting Irish a 36-35 lead with 30 seconds left, Stanford and quarterback Kevin Hogan drove 44 yards to set up a game-winning, 45-yard field goal as time expired. With the win, the Cardinal pushed themselves deeper into the Playoff mix while shuffling the Fighting Irish (10-2) out of the picture. But will it be enough?

Another must-win game comes next: Southern California on Dec. 5 to decide the Pac-12 Conference title. Even with a victory, the Cardinal (10-2) will spend the next week watching the scoreboard, pulling for specific teams and stating its case — again and again — in an attempt to curry favor with the Playoff selection committee.

WHAT WE’LL BE TALKING ABOUT: Stanford can add to its résumé against USC. Beyond the win, the Cardinal need help — and it’s almost impossible to see a scenario occur that pushes this team into the four-team field. The winner of the Big Ten Conference championship, either Iowa or Michigan State, is a lock for the Playoff. It would be shocking to see Oklahoma drop from third to out of the top four after storming past Oklahoma State.

At this point, Stanford needs Clemson to lose to North Carolina or Alabama to lose to Florida — if not both — to have a chance. It doesn’t look good.

Does that make this a disappointing season for David Shaw and Stanford? Not entirely. There’s a Rose Bowl at play, another conference title and another year inside the top 10 of the polls. Yet there was that loss to Northwestern, which remains puzzling despite the Wildcats’ own successful season. And there’s the loss to Oregon, which in hindsight doomed Stanford’s Playoff hopes.

BREAKOUT PLAYER: Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey drew eyeballs on every snap, pulling Notre Dame defenders closer to the line of scrimmage and freeing wide receiver Devin Cajuste downfield. Cajuste led the Cardinal with five receptions for 125 yards, with two long grabs leading to touchdowns. Even when not touching the football, McCaffrey is the key to Stanford’s offense.

KEY STAT: Stanford has won 10 or more games four times under David Shaw. The Cardinal won 10 or more games in a single season just four times in program history prior to Shaw’s promotion to head coach following the 2010 season.

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