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One crazy stat shows that Tiger Woods might be closer to winning than you think

Tiger Woods looked like his career might have been over after a disastrous performance at the U.S. Open. Former swing coach Butch Harmon called Tiger “a lost soul.”

Most golfers — with the exception of Tiger circa 2000 and Rory McIlroy before he ruptured an ankle ligament playing soccer — are extremely volatile from week to week, so naturally Woods responded with one of his best performances in years. Woods didn’t win the Greenbrier Classic — and he wasn’t even close, finishing in a tie for 32nd — but he led the entire field in strokes gained by approach shots. Woods’ average proximity to the hole was the best it’s been since at least 2003.

In other words, Woods struck his approach shots at the Greenbrier Classic better than he did at 45 other PGA Tour events that he won since 2003. That’s crazy.

Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

So what does this all mean? First of all, Woods obviously has to improve off the tee and on the green. Woods led the field in approach shots but wasn’t able to convert those opportunities with his putter. Woods isn’t ranked in the official PGA Tour putting stats because he hasn’t played enough rounds, but his overall putting average in 2015 would place him around 160th. His driving accuracy percentage would be 195th.

Woods isn’t back (and he may never be “back”), but he isn’t irrecoverable either. He just had an awful weekend on the greens and finished six shots back, and if it wasn’t for an unlucky bounce on Saturday that led to an out-of-bounds penalty, he’d have been even closer.

His next tournament is at St. Andrews, where he’s won two majors. You might not want to bet on Woods to beat Jordan Spieth and the rest of the field, but if he can strike his irons the way he did in West Virginia this weekend, he could be a contender at the Old Course.

 

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