Rieder: Lessons from premature Rubio coronation

The premature coronation of Marco Rubio is a valuable cautionary tale for journalists and political pundits.

For weeks we've been told that Rubio is the guy to watch in the rollicking, fascinating Republican presidential primary. The contest was becoming a three-man race, the savants said, featuring front-runner Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Rubio, the smooth, boyish first-term senator from Florida.

After his respectable third-place finish in Iowa, the widely repeated scenario went, Rubio would finish second in New Hampshire, cementing his position as the establishment candidate, and his rivals in that "lane" would rapidly melt away.

This passage from Politico out of Iowa on Feb. 2 aptly sums up the sentiment: "With his strong showing in the caucuses here, Marco Rubio is growing closer to consolidating the establishment wing of the Republican Party — and tightening the noose around the necks of his mainstream GOP rivals, including Jeb Bush."

"Why Marco Rubio is Democrats' worst nightmare," read a headline in the New York Post.

Then those pesky Granite State voters got in the way and blew up the narrative.

Rather than a player, Rubio was an also-ran, finishing fifth, trailing even the long-left-for-dead Jeb (Jeb!) Bush.

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In second place? John Kasich. Who? John Kasich, the Ohio governor thought to be holding on by his fingernails rather than a threat to easily outpace the much more ballyhooed Rubio and Cruz. (Kasich did finish behind Trump by a yuge margin. Score one for the Conventional Wisdom.)

Of course, something happened in between all that positive spin for Rubio and his lackluster showing. Chris Christie happened.

Marco Rubio repeats speech line amid attacks he's too scripted

The pugnacious New Jersey governor had been hammering away at Rubio as an empty suit, a totally scripted boy in a bubble hardly qualified to be commander in chief. Christie's jabs clearly rattled Rubio, who at the GOP debate last Saturday night ludicrously repeated and repeated the same attack line about President Obama, powerfully driving home the point of the clearly delighted Christie. It was a defining moment, like Rick Perry's "Oops," Howard Dean's scream, James Stockdale's "Who am I? Why am I here?" The robot image would stick.

While pretty much everyone else realized that, Rubio didn't, spending 72 hours minimizing the fallout, defending an indefensible position, which rarely works out well (unless your name is Donald Trump). Only after things had gone terribly wrong in New Hampshire did he acknowledge that he had blown it Saturday night.

The instant punditry about the beatdown got it right for once: While it was devastating for Rubio, it wouldn't really help Christie's sagging campaign. "Murder/suicide" was the verdict. The Jersey Jolter finished a distant sixth, and it was time to turn off the lights.

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So would the smart guys have been right about Golden Boy Rubio if he hadn't run into a buzzsaw? Doesn't matter. And that's the point. Things happen during a presidential campaign. The scrutiny is relentless. The pressure is enormous. The combat is intense. We learn a great deal about the gladiators as these endurance contests endure.

And, like a newly named No. 1 college basketball team, the target, as they say, goes squarely on the back of those thought to be blessed by the political gods, raising the stakes, escalating the danger.

That's why it's wise to hedge the bets, to be wary of the absolutes, to keep in mind that, as Lenny Kravitz, improving on Yogi Berra's great line, taught us, "Baby, it ain't over til it's over."

Which is easier said than done in today's oversaturated, overheated media world. There is so much time to fill on cable. The Internet's appetite for fresh, provocative content is ravenous. And in both of those venues nuance is no match for flash.

Rieder: What next for Trump media circus?

And there is so much more to come. Step back and you realize what an unusual run for the White House we have. On the Republican side, a billionaire wheeler dealer and reality TV guy named Trump has a commanding lead, at least according to those ubiquitous polls. On the Democratic side, a 74-year-old, Jewish socialist with a New York accent named Bernie Sanders is throwing a serious scare at Hillary Clinton, for the second time a once-overwhelming favorite confronted by an entirely unlikely yet formidable challenger. Twice anointed, once shy?

If you predicted this a year ago, I want to go to the track with you.

"It's a crazy world. Anything can happen," Elsa (Ingrid Bergman) tells Rick (Humphrey Bogart) in Casablanca. But on this you can rely: Should Marco Rubio reverse his fortune and win the GOP nomination, he won't be picking a certain Jersey guy as his running mate.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Rem Rieder on Twitter @remrieder