New York’s primary: What we'll know and when we’ll know it
In New York, you are always competing for attention with something bigger, flashier and more exciting, and Tuesday's primary is no different: Politicians have to grab the attention of Gotham residents who may be focused on the 7 p.m. start of the hometown Rangers NHL playoff game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. There is also a night baseball game at Yankees Stadium.
But there is a lot at stake for both parties in the Empire State, so grab a knish and an egg cream (or, if you are watching the upstate vote, Buffalo wings and a Genesee Cream Ale) and settle in. Polls close statewide at 9 p.m. ET. Here's how to watch:
What we'll know early
It is very possible Donald Trump will be declared the statewide winner in New York shortly after 9 p.m., assuming public polling has been accurate. Every April poll has shown him with a lead of at least 20 percentage points — and in many surveys it's more than 30 — so if those margins bear out, networks should be able to call the race pretty quickly.
What we'll know later
Hillary Clinton has also shown a substantial lead in every public poll — generally between 10 and 15 percentage points — but Bernie Sanders' team thinks he may do better than that. If he can keep the margin below 10%, it might be pretty late Tuesday night before this race gets called.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
A narrow defeat would be a good opportunity for Sanders to declare that he is exceeding expectations ... but that may not help him very much in the race for the Democratic nomination. Clinton already leads Sanders by nearly 250 pledged delegates (not counting her superdelegate advantage of more than 430), so he needs to win big to make a dent in her margin.
What we won't know for awhile
Since New York's delegate distribution system is so complicated in both parties, it is going to be a while before we know the final delegate count out of the state. Both Republicans and Democrats distribute a statewide chunk of delegates as well as a pot of delegates for each of New York's 27 congressional districts. That means there are really 28 different races that need to be tallied before we know the delegate outcomes.
Making matters worse, while Republicans award three delegates per congressional district, Democrats award four, five or six delegates depending on the district. While Democratic delegates are distributed on a proportional basis, Republican delegates in any of the 28 contests are winner-take-all if a candidate takes over 50% of the vote. With all of that math to be done, it may be some days before we know exactly how many delegates everybody walks away with.
What we think we'll know
1) Can Hillary Clinton soundly beat Bernie Sanders in a Democratic contest for the first time since Arizona's March 22 primary? While she has maintained a sizable delegate lead during her losing streak, she needs to get off the schneid pretty soon.
2) Can Donald Trump win New York by a big enough margin to put him back on track to win the Republican nomination without a floor fight at the July convention? Trump is about 500 delegates short of the total he needs to win the nomination; Ted Cruz is not quite 700 delegates short. With 95 Republican delegates at stake, Trump could make a major step forward Tuesday if he can run the table in his home state.
3) Can John Kasich win delegates or is he just playing spoiler? The Ohio governor has only won his home state and still has fewer delegates than Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race a month ago. Kasich is running second to Trump in most polls, but New York Republican rules require a candidate to win 20% of the vote to qualify for delegates. In a "Trump v. Non-Trump" race, Cruz and Kasich may be competing to knock each other out of delegate contention.
Elections 2016 | USA TODAY Network
