Nightengale: Trade-deadline advice for teams in, out of playoff picture
We are on the verge of perhaps the most perplexing, strangest trade deadline baseball has seen since the advent of the wild card.
Here we are, with nearly everyone at the 100-game mark of the season, and everyone's having trouble identifying the legitimate contenders from the frauds.
It's almost impossible these days to differentiate between the sellers, buyers and those who simply plan to stay pat at Friday's 4 p.m. ET non-waiver deadline.
Just look at the American League.
There are only five teams who even have a winning record, and the AL wild-card races are a complete quagmire.
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You have only two teams, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland A's, who are more than 6½ games out of the second wild card spot.
There's a chance we could have the first team in history reach the playoffs with a losing record. The Toronto Blue Jays are only three games behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild card spot, and the Blue Jays have a 50-50 record.
The National League is a drumbeat of monotonous consistency. If the season ended today, the same division winners of a year ago — the St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals — would be in the playoffs, and the San Francisco Giants would be facing the Pittsburgh Pirates in a one-game playoff at PNC Park.
Yep, exactly like a year ago.
Well, with the trade deadline winding down, and everyone having questions, we'll go ahead and offer our free advice, and see if everyone ignores it.
Here's what needs to transpire during the final shopping days before Friday's lightning round:
The Detroit Tigers have to take a good hard look at themselves, and come to the harsh reality that it's time to say goodbye.
Why: This is a team that not only is 12½ games out of first place in the AL Central, but has been playing .430 baseball for three solid months now. The Tigers are tied with the Oakland Athletics for the second-worst record (37-49) in the AL since opening the year 11-2. The only team with a worse record in that span is the Boston Red Sox (36-50).
Sure, the Tigers are only 4½ games out of the second wild-card spot, but they're only five games away from the worst record in the league. They've gone 4-6 since the All-Star break despite facing three teams with losing records.
The Tigers, who haven't sold at the deadline since 2008, could reset the organization with a flourish, trading ace David Price and slugger Yoenis Cespedes, and bringing in a glorious haul of prospects. They shouldn't let their heart overrule their head, and allow the AL's mediocrity to sway them.
The Los Angeles Dodgers must come to the realization they're going to have to sacrifice some talented prospects, and trade for Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels.
Why: It's a no-brainer, and the Dodgers will gladly throw in outfielder Yasiel Puig in any package. Hamels, who threw a no-hitter in his last start against the Chicago Cubs to go along with his World Series MVP award, should be Hollywood's leading man. He's perfect. He's got the talent, the resume, and the moxie.
You throw Hamels into that rotation with Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, and the trio may not give up a run all October. Hamels, who's signed through 2018, also provides valuable protection if Greinke opts out of his contract and doesn't return.
The only reason for the Dodgers not to acquire Hamels is if they instead trade for Price. It would be the Chicago Cubs' worst nightmare. If Price goes to L.A., he just may decide the Southern California lifestyle fits him quite nicely.
The Cubs should be conservative, ignoring the noise they should do everything in their power to reach the playoffs.
Why: Uh, did you happen to catch the Cubs' performance last weekend at Wrigley Field against the woeful Philadelphia Phillies?
Let's see, they got no-hit in one game, routed in another, and were swept by the Phillies at Wrigley for the first time in six years, with their pitching staff surrendering 40 hits and 21 runs.
The Cubs, 51-46, are vastly improved from a year ago, but sit 11½ games out in the NL Central behind the St. Louis Cardinals, and now 2½ games behind the San Francisco Giants for the second wild-card spot.
The worst thing they could do is mortgage part of their future for a chance to play baseball's version of Russian roulette in a one-game wild-card game. Sure, it they get a mid-tiered starter that falls into their lap, fine, but otherwise, save their money, hang onto their prospects, and go for the jugular this winter.
The New York Yankees have to do everything possible to get Price if he's available.
Why: Would you trust that Yankees rotation in the postseason? If they can't get Price, they've got to come up with Jeff Samardzija of the Chicago White Sox or another frontline starter. They have no chance of getting into the World Series without one.
Please, there's not an executive in baseball who believes the Yankees will let any of their top four prospects keep them from making a major deal. These are the Yankees. They're built to win, and win now.
They can buy their future with free agents.
The Toronto Blue Jays are under the gun to make something happen more than any team.
Why: They have no choice but acquire a front-line starter, and a reliever, unless they want a mutiny on their hands. Front office and ownership have to prove to their players they'll do anything to win, and not waste the most glorious offense in baseball.
If the Blue Jays do nothing, they'll pay the price, with a clubhouse full of angry men, and an irate fan base.
The Padres are acting like the Marlins during one of their fire sales, but there could be dangerous consequences.
Everyone knows the Padres' winter wonderland of activity turned into a colossal mess, but they should tread carefully, making sure they don't damage the soul of their franchise.
Sure, go ahead and trade outfielder Justin Upton to the highest bidder, which could be the Baltimore Orioles. You're not going shell out $150 million to $200 million to keep him anyway. Dump off impending free-agent starter Ian Kennedy, too.
But stop there. Don't deal away James Shields five months after signing him to a free-agent contract, allowing him to stay home. Don't trade closer Craig Kimbrel, one of the best in the business, knowing he's under control for three more years.
You gave your fan base hope this winter with all of your aggressive moves, and franchise-record setting payroll, so don't strip it all away in one week. They've gone through enough rebuilding projects. It's fine to focus on the present, even if the original plan backfired.
The Chicago White Sox, who had all intentions of trading Samardzija, better hold off a few more days before doing anything.
Why: The White Sox, who spent the first three months as one of baseball's most underachieving teams, suddenly are playing just like the team they envisioned.
The only question is if it's too late.
The White Sox are in a similar position as the Tigers, each with 50 losses, but their four-game sweep over the Cleveland Indians, outscoring them 26-5, has management putting the brakes on selling. They now plan to wait to see how they fare in their four-game series against the Red Sox.
The White Sox, believing they could pitch with any team in baseball in October, watched their starters go five consecutive games without issuing a walk, the first time since 1972.
For the first time this season, they have life.
Is it a mirage, or is it real?
It's a question a whole lot of teams seem to be asking themselves these days.
2015 TRADE-DEADLINE TRACKER:
