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OPINION
Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign

Trump v Clinton is (almost) official: Mastio & Lawrence

But Hillary still does too much losing amid her primary victories.

David Mastio, and Jill Lawrence
USA TODAY
Coal miner Chris Steele holds a Trump sign outside a Hillary Clinton event in Williamson, W.V., May 2, 2016.

David: Now that Ohio Governor John Kasich has dropped out, we're on to the main event. The conventional wisdom is that Hillary Clinton will handily defeat newly crowned Republican nominee Donald Trump in November. The polls say that is right, but how can Clinton beat Trump if she keeps losing to “socialist” Bernie Sanders as she did in Indiana on Tuesday?

Jill: Look to 2008 for the answer to that. I remember a Democrat lamenting that Barack Obama was limping across the finish line even as he was the inevitable nominee from a mathematical standpoint. Clinton back then showed strength and won contests right to the end – five to Obama’s two in May and June alone. But that ended up having little bearing on Obama’s performance in November.

There were many elements, starting with the fact that primary performance in a state doesn’t predict general-election performance. Another factor was intervening events and how Obama handled them, topped by the financial collapse. Party unity also played a role – especially as Democrats saw and accepted that Clinton and Obama were very close on most issues. That may end up true here, too. As John Stoehr writes, Clinton’s policy ideas do a lot to further her populist cred.

Just Iike eight years ago, Clinton has the math but Sanders has the momentum.  It’s so interesting how a huge chunk of voters in both parties have had it with the party and D.C. establishments and really want to shake things up.

David: That 2008 analogy shouldn’t give anyone in the Hillary camp or #nevertrump world much solace. Obama 2008 ran against frustration with eight years of George W. Bush. Clinton can’t. Obama could blame the horrible economy on Bush. Clinton can’t. Obama ran on a wave of anti-establishment optimism that he could change Washington. Clinton can’t. In 2008, body bags coming back from the Middle East were addressed to Bush and his Senate enabler John McCain. Now they are addressed to Obama and the architect of his foreign policy: Hillary Clinton.

Facing up to the sad! reality of Trump and Clinton: Mastio and Lawrence

Today, Hillary Clinton is the establishment. Washington dysfunction hurts her, not Trump. Every bit of bad economic news is going to hit her and not Trump, from the 1st quarter’s low growth to Wednesday’s disappointing job numbers. Every bit of bad news on foreign policy is going to hit her not Trump, from dead soldiers in Iraq to new nuclear tests in North Korea.

While Hillary waits for the FBI and Justice Department to decide her fate in an email scandal that keeps reminding people of her insider status and her sense of queenly entitlement, Trump will be launching his own scandal of the day (Ted Cruz’s father and the Kennedy assassination, really?). But that will just remind people of how different Trump is from the well-groomed, smooth-tongued Democrats and Republicans who have taken turns messing up Washington.

Jill: You are assuming that the economy is terrible and that everyone thinks so. Though there are Trump and Sanders voters who clearly feel that way, the economic numbers aren’t so bad and Obama’s numbers aren’t, either.

I do agree with you that Trump’s outsider status will be a plus and might attract some Sanders voters. Yet Trump is even less popular than Clinton and has many of the same problems. That FBI investigation casts a big shadow, it’s true. But Trump has his own shadows. For instance, a hearing on a class action lawsuit against Trump and Trump University is scheduled in San Diego for July 18 -- the same day the Republican convention begins  in Cleveland.

Apart from Trump’s disadvantages, I’ve got to think that sheer demographics will be insurmountable for him. That’s especially true if Sanders accepts reality before the convention and urges his people to get behind Clinton.

There are still nine Democratic contests left and it’s probably a solid bet that Clinton will lose a lot of them. She is leading in polls of California and New Jersey, but she was leading in Indiana, too, and then lost to Sanders. She’s having trouble in places like West Virginia and Kentucky, in part due to a self-inflicted wound on coal, and she may fall to Sanders in western states as well.

It’s not going to be a triumphal march to the nomination, that’s for sure. But she’ll get there.

David: You're right, but if she's still stumbling when she gets over the finish line, that won't be a good sign for November.

David Mastio, a libertarianish conservative, is the deputy editor of USA TODAY's Editorial Page. Jill Lawrence, a center-leftish liberal, is the commentary editor of USA TODAY. Follow them on Twitter @DavidMastio and @JillDLawrence.

In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors. To read more columns, go to the Opinion front page and follow us on Twitter: @USATOpinion.

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