Ranking Reaction: What teams are best suited to crash the Playoff?
Alabama enters the Southeastern Conference title game as the second seed in the latest College Football Playoff top 25 ranking and, perhaps more importantly, a decided favorite against a Florida team one week removed from a humiliating loss to Florida State.
The Gators did score against the Seminoles, eventually, but on the defensive side of the ball: Florida notched a safety in the fourth quarter to avoid its first shutout loss since 1988.
Even in a season of college football anarchy, with each week more unpredictable than the last, a Florida win against Alabama would likely serve as the largest upset of the regular season — particularly given the stakes at play, with a win sending Alabama back to the national semifinals for the second year in a row.
Also on Saturday, top-ranked Clemson will face No. 10 North Carolina to decide the Atlantic Coast Conference championship. The Tar Heels, who haven’t loss since the opener against South Carolina, stand as a far greater threat to Playoff chaos than the offense-challenged Gators.
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It’s undeniably true that the Playoff field is set, should the current top two hold serve in their respective conference championship games. Alabama and Clemson would hold the top two seeds. Third and fourth would go to the winner of the Big Ten Conference championship, No. 4 Iowa or No. 5 Michigan State, and No. 3 Oklahoma, which has concluded its regular season and a place in the Playoff.
“The Oklahoma résumé is deep with four top-25 victories in our current rankings, and then three other wins over teams with winning records,” selection committee chairman Jeff Long said.
Yet intrigue is still afoot. Clemson could lose. So could Alabama — even if that seems hard to believe. That would lead to another round of familiar chaos, with three teams in particular waiting to take advantage: North Carolina, No. 7 Stanford and No. 6 Ohio State.
While Clemson and Alabama look to seal spots in the Playoff, Stanford will have a rematch with No. 20 Southern California to settle the Pac-12 Conference championship. At the very least, a win would secure Stanford’s third Rose Bowl berth in four years.
“Talkers talk and players play,” Stanford Coach David Shaw said. “A lot of people want to state their case, and stating your case doesn’t mean anything. What matters is playing your best brand of football, and if it’s good enough, great. If it’s not, fine.”
Ohio State’s regular season is done, but in familiar fashion — think back to last season — the Buckeyes capped it with a bang, demolishing No. 15 Michigan on the road to finish second in the Big Ten East Division. North Carolina’s matchup against Clemson provides an opportunity for a final-week soar into the Playoff field, even if the Tar Heels’ record includes a loss to South Carolina and two victories against members of the Football Championship Subdivision.
“It isn’t only the FCS victories, it's the combination of those with the South Carolina loss,” Long said of North Carolina. “It's never just one thing, there are multiple things in there that have held UNC back.
“North Carolina and Ohio State, in the multiple number of metrics we look at, they’re not close. It’s clear in Ohio State’s favor in the strength of schedule.”
College Football Playoff Ranking
There’s only a slim window for a team outside the top five to sneak into a national semifinal, but the opportunity exists. If the status quo holds, the selection committee will have it easy. If not, if Alabama or Clemson lose, the committee will be faced with the unenviable task of choosing from three deserving contenders.
Maybe there’s a fourth in No. 4 Iowa, should the Hawkeyes fall to No. 5 Michigan State for their first loss. But while Iowa would have one more win than either the Buckeyes or Cardinal, the overall résumé of victories might not favor the Hawkeyes’ chances as an at-large bid. One-loss Iowa might be seeded ahead of Ohio State, but not ahead of a potential Pac-12 champion Cardinal — owners of several impressive wins entering Saturday.
Ohio State defeated six bowl teams, with no victory better than the finale against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes closed strong. Their one loss, at home to Michigan State, came in rainy conditions. After last season, perhaps no team would get more benefit of the doubt from the committee.
Stanford has two losses, true, one fewer than the Buckeyes and Tar Heels, but would have the same number of wins as Ohio State. Stanford will have defeated eight bowl teams — seven, to be exact, but let’s count USC twice. We’ve seen evidence that the committee cares more about wins than an individual loss. How might they feel about two losses?
This head-to-head debate may roar on Sunday, or it may be moot: Alabama and Clemson could win — should win, maybe — and make the committee’s four-team field a no-brainer. Yet this season has never gone according to script. It may be only fitting to have one last hiccup of anarchy before the Playoff finally arrives.