Ten NCAA tournament bubble teams with the most to prove

The NCAA men's basketball tournament selection committee cares as much about what a team did in November as what it does in February. But at this point, teams hoping to make the field of 68 can only control what lies ahead.

With less than six weeks until Selection Sunday, crunch time has arrived. Who's in? Who's out? Every bubble teams' fate is in the balance, and what's more, they're all interconnected, right through conference championship week.

Here's a look at 10 fringe NCAA tournament teams with the most to prove right now.

NCAA tournament bracketology: Projecting the field of 68

1. Kansas State

A signature win can make all the difference. The Wildcats got one by upsetting projected NCAA tourney No. 1 seed Oklahoma this past weekend, a victory that revived the team's postseason life. Kansas State plays in the country's highest-rated conference, which leads to a top-10 strength of schedule (SoS), to cover for a 3-7 league record. But Oklahoma is Kansas State's only top-50 win. There will be plenty of chances to get more in the Big 12. One thing the Wildcats must avoid: Losing to a bad team like TCU, who they play Feb. 16 and March 2.

2. LSU

The Tigers, led by freshman sensation Ben Simmons, are alone atop the SEC standings. And yet, their résumé stains and shortcomings nearly trump their conference supremacy. LSU only has one top-50 win, and its RPI is floating in the 70s. The biggie: Three losses to teams outside the top 100. More big wins in SEC play should secure the Tigers. Still, there's a small margin for error.

Villanova is No. 1 for first time since USA TODAY took over coaches poll

3. Clemson

There's a lot of good on the Tigers' profile. There's also a lot of bad. The good: Six top-50 wins, including Duke, Miami and Louisville. The bad? A non-conference SoS of 336 is one of the worst in the country and certainly the worst among bubble teams. Essentially, the Tigers have are hoping big wins counter that dreadful part of their résumé. The more, the merrier.

4. Saint Joseph's

The Hawks only have five losses and sport a fantastic RPI of 31. And yet, if the season ended today they'd likely miss the cut. Their best win is Princeton. Games against top-50 opponents for this team will be under a serious microscope.

5. Gonzaga

The 'Zags aren't supposed to be here. They have two All-American level players in Damantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. But because the Bulldogs didn't do themselves any favors in non-conference play and don't have their typical stranglehold on the WCC, they're in the danger zone. A non-conference clash with SMU is perhaps the most important game of any bubble team at this point.

6. Saint Mary's

Unlike Gonzaga, the Gaels don't have a chance to notch a top-50 win. But if Gonzaga does beat SMU, it would give Saint Mary's a top-50 win. That's the type of math that makes it painful to be a decent team in a mid-major conference.

7. Indiana

The Hoosiers could miss the NCAAs? Really? They were once tied for first place in the Big Ten and were playing great basketball before losing to Penn State on Saturday. But the only top-50 win on its résumé came against Notre Dame. The remaining Big Ten schedule includes Iowa twice, Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue.

8. Wisconsin

It's difficult to imagine the Badgers not in the NCAA tournament, especially following back-to-back Final Four runs. The Badgers have played well lately, but they are still digging themselves out of a hole they fell in during the early portion of the season. It's hard to erase a home loss to a Western Michigan team with a 274 RPI. There are four remaining regular season games against top-50 opponents in Big Ten play. Each will be vital for Wisconsin's NCAA hopes.

Eight teams that look like Final Four sleepers

9. Wichita State

Injuries, particularly to All-American guard Fred VanVleet, really hurt the Shockers' non-conference profile. They only have one top-50 victory, and the Valley offers no opportunity to get another. A road loss to Illinois State over the weekend is exactly what Wichita State did not need.

10. Butler 

The Bulldogs were ranked fairly high in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll earlier in the season. But now their résumé seems a bit bare. Butler's only top-50 win came against Purdue. There will be Big East games that could boost the Bulldogs' profile, but they must seize those opportunities. Otherwise, they're NIT-bound.

Bubble Tracker conference-by-conference breakdowns of the strength and weaknesses of borderline teams. Data as of Feb. 8. (Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only)

• Locks: N/A
• Probable: N/A
• Bubble: Connecticut, Cincinnati, Temple, Tulsa 

In for now

Connecticut: 17-6 (7-3), 51 RPI, 72 SoS, 64 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Texas

The bad: No bad losses to date

Out for now

Cincinnati: 17-7 (7-4), 67 RPI, 97 SoS, 157 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. George Washington, VCU, UConn

The bad: Loss vs. Memphis

Temple: 14-8 (8-3), 69 RPI, 75 SoS, 182 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. SMU, UConn

The bad: Losses vs. Houston, East Carolina, Memphis

Tulsa: 14-8 (6-4), 63 RPI, 63 SoS, 80 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Wichita State, UConn

The bad: Losses vs. Houston, Oral Roberts 

• Locks: Virginia, North Carolina, Miami
• Probable: Notre Dame, Duke, Pittsburgh 
• Bubble: Syracuse, Florida State, Clemson

In for now

Syracuse: 16-8 (6-5), 47 RPI, 37 SoS, 112 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Texas A&M, Notre Dame, St. Bonaventure, UConn

The bad: Loss vs. St. John's

Florida State: 16-7 (6-5), 38 RPI, 61 SoS, 208 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Virginia, Florida, VCU

The Bad: No bad losses to date

Clemson: 14-9 (7-4), 83 RPI, 76 SoS, 336 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Miami, Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse 

The bad: Losses vs. Virginia Tech, UMass, Minnesota 

• Locks: Dayton
• Probable: N/A
• Bubble: VCU, George Washington, St. Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, Davidson

In for now

VCU: 17-6 (9-1), 41 RPI, 67 SoS, 75 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's

The bad: No bad losses to date

George Washington: 18-5 (7-3), 36 RPI, 104 SoS, 187 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Virginia, Seton Hall, VCU

The bad: Losses vs. DePaul, Richmond, Saint Louis

Out for now

St. Joseph's: 19-4 (6-2), 31 RPI, 84 SoS, 70 non-conference SoS

The good: No top 50 RPI wins to date

The bad: No bad losses to date

St. Bonaventure: 15-6 (7-3), 49 RPI, 82 SoS, 163 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. St. Joseph's, Davidson

The bad: Losses vs. Siena, Duquesne 

Davidson: 12-8 (5-5), 50 RPI, 33 SoS, 41 non-conference SoS

The good: No top-50 RPI wins to date

The bad: Loss vs. St. Louis

• Locks: Villanova, Xavier
• Probable: Providence
• Bubble: Seton Hall, Butler, Georgetown, Creighton 

In for now

Seton Hall: 17-6 (7-4), 35 RPI, 68 SoS, 237 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Wichita State, Providence

The bad: Loss vs. Richmond

Out for now

Butler: 16-7 (5-6), 68 RPI, 98 SoS, 209 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Purdue

The bad: Loss vs. Marquette

Georgetown: 13-11 (6-5), 73 RPI, 21 SoS, 38 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Xavier, Syracuse

The bad: Losses vs. UNC-Asheville, Radford

Creighton: 15-9 (6-5), 101 RPI, 108 SoS, 286 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Seton Hall

The bad: Loss vs. Loyola (Chicago) 

• Locks: Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland
• Probable: Purdue
• Bubble: Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State

In for now

Michigan: 16-7 (7-4), 54 RPI, 59 SoS, 117 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Maryland, Texas

The bad: No bad losses to date

Indiana: 19-5 (9-2), 55 RPI, 136 SoS, 213 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Notre Dame

The bad: Losses vs. Penn State, UNLV

Out for now

Wisconsin: 14-9 (6-4), 65 RPI, 18 SoS, 46 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Michigan State, VCU, Syracuse

The bad: Losses vs. Marquette, Northwestern, Milwaukee, Western Illinois 

Ohio State: 14-10 (6-5), 87 RPI, 52 SoS, 65 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Kentucky

The bad: Losses vs. Texas-Arlington, Memphis, Louisiana Tech

• Locks: Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas
• Probable: Baylor
• Bubble: Kansas State, Texas Tech

In for now

Kansas State: 14-9 (3-7), 40 RPI, 7 SoS, 113 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Oklahoma

The bad: No bad losses to date

Out for now

Texas Tech: 13-9 (3-7), 53 RPI, 8 SoS, 61 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Texas

The bad: No bad losses to date

• Locks: Oregon, USC, Utah
• Probable: Arizona
• Bubble: Oregon State, California, Colorado, Washington, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State

In for now

Oregon State: 13-8 (5-6), 42 RPI, 9 SoS, 86 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Oregon, USC, Utah, Colorado, California 

The bad: No bad losses to date

California: 15-8 (5-5), 34 RPI, 24 SoS, 93 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Utah, Colorado, Arizona, Davidson

The bad: Loss to Richmond 

Colorado: 16-7 (7-5), 26 RPI, 32 SoS, 107 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Oregon, California, Oregon State

The bad: No bad losses to date

Washington: 15-8 (7-4), 56 RPI, 30 SoS, 111 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. USC, Texas, Colorado

The bad: Loss vs. Oakland 

Out for now

UCLA: 13-10 (4-6), 72 RPI, 19 SoS, 42 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Arizona, Oregon State

The bad: Loss vs. Washington State

Stanford: 10-10 (4-6), 71 RPI, 1 SoS, 37 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Utah, California, Oregon State

The bad: No bad losses to date

Arizona State: 13-11 (3-8), 74 RPI, 23 SoS, 43 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Texas A&M, Oregon State

The bad: Losses vs. Sacramento State, Marquette

• Locks: Texas A&M, Kentucky
• Probable: South Carolina, Florida
• Bubble: LSU, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Georgia 

In for now

LSU: 15-8 (8-2), 75 RPI, 83 SoS, 196 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Kentucky

The bad: Losses vs. North Carolina State, Houston, Marquette

Out for now

Vanderbilt: 13-10 (5-5), 58 RPI, 14 SoS, 24 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. Texas A&M, Florida

The bad: No bad losses to date

Alabama: 13-9 (4-6), 57 RPI, 26 SoS, 18 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Notre Dame, Wichita State

The bad: Loss vs. Auburn

Georgia: 13-8 (6-4), 66 RPI, 27 SoS, 8 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. South Carolina

The bad: No bad losses to date

*Assuming teams don't win their smaller conference tournaments and secure the automatic bid. 

• Locks: N/A
• Probable: N/A
• Bubble: Wichita State, Monmouth, Gonzaga, St. Mary's, San Diego State, Valparaiso, Chattanooga 

In for now

Wichita State: 16-6 (11-1), 32 RPI, 79 SoS, 6 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Utah

The bad: Loss vs. Illinois State

Monmouth: 19-5 (11-2), 30 RPI, 122 SoS, 29 non-conference SoS

The good: Wins vs. USC, Notre Dame

The bad: Losses vs. Canisius, Army, Manhattan

Gonzaga: 18-5 (11-2), 62 RPI, 116 SoS, 49 non-conference SoS

The good: No top-50 RPI wins to date

The bad: No bad losses to date

St. Mary's: 18-3 (10-2), 52 RPI, 188 SoS, 214 non-conference SoS

The good: No top-50 RPI wins to date

The bad: Loss vs. Pepperdine 

San Diego State: 16-6 (11-0), 44 RPI, 60 SoS, 11 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. California

The bad: Losses vs. Grand Canyon, San Diego 

Out for now

Valparaiso: 18-4 (10-1), 46 RPI, 176 SoS, 45 non-conference SoS

The good: Win vs. Oregon State

The bad: Losses vs. Wright State, Ball State

Chattanooga: 19-3 (10-1), 37 RPI, 191 SoS, 159 non-conference SoS

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.