Misery Index Week 5: Truly awful in Austin
A theme is emerging in college football this year. Everybody stinks. Really, it’s true. Just log onto Twitter or Facebook. Nobody wins a game anymore because they’re good, it's only because the team they're playing is bad.
Follow us down this logic trail. Alabama loses to Ole Miss because Alabama has come back to the pack. But Ole Miss lost to Florida, so Ole Miss was obviously overrated. But Florida was really lucky to beat Tennessee, who isn't any good and couldn’t even beat Arkansas, who lost to Toledo.
Toledo, then. Toledo’s good. Everyone OK with that?
It’s true, though. Everybody stinks. Or, at the very least, everyone is flawed.
College football's Week 5 winners and losers
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Ohio State continues to play down to its competition. Michigan State has been in some unexpected fourth-quarter dogfights, including against the likes of Purdue and Central Michigan. TCU, with its banged-up defense, needed a lucky bounce to beat Texas Tech. Baylor is still giving up a ton of points. All the SEC teams have question marks. Utah has the best résumé, but will it last? UCLA looked great until it didn’t. We could go on.
It’s wide, wide open this year. And the fact everybody stinks means it's going to be a whole lot of fun figuring out who stinks just a little bit less.
But there's no debate about who stinks a little bit more.
Texas.
Even in a season where they’ve generally looked bad, the Longhorns were a whole lot worse than that on Saturday in a 50-7 loss at bloodthirsty TCU. It was a performance that inspired Texas coach Charlie Strong to acknowledge that he had just experienced his worst day as a head coach, and it was framed by the embarrassment of Texas cornerback Kris Boyd spending halftime on his phone retweeting things, including a message urging him to transfer.
That is not exactly the picture of a winning culture being built on Strong’s watch.
A week after taking two steps forward against Oklahoma State, the Longhorns backpedaled big time. A week after their fan base complained to the Big 12 office about unfair officiating, they should instead funnel their efforts into figuring out why TCU has way better players.
And Strong needs to figure it out, too, because, Saturday was very much about a historically lesser program sending the message — again — that elite recruits in the state of Texas don’t need to go to Texas to play on the big stage and go to the NFL.
As if that hasn’t been pounded into their heads enough over the last few years with Baylor, TCU and Texas A&M being light years more relevant than Texas, Gary Patterson went and drove home the point. Talking about his banged-up defense with ESPN, he said before the game, “We’ve beaten better with less.” Then his team went out did whatever it pleased.
Snap judgments from Week 5 in college football
But what’s Strong’s strategy here as Texas stares at a likely 1-5 start with Saturday’s game against Oklahoma looming? Because this is as much about managing the psychological impact for his players and fans as showing improvement. There is a long track record to show that most coaches who win at the championship level show the potential for greatness by Year 2. Strong needs to be able to explain why that leap hasn't been made and demonstrate why the timetable is going to be different at Texas but yield the same results.
So far, he isn’t doing that, which is troublesome when coaches at other superpowers — namely Michigan and Florida — already are demonstrating good things in Year 1.
Texas can’t be this bad much longer before Strong’s career is on the line. To borrow a phrase construction from Patterson, even if you believe in Strong, better coaches have lost their jobs for less.
(Disclaimer: This isn't a ranking of worst teams, worst losses or coaches whose jobs are in the most jeopardy. This is simply a measurement of a fan base's knee-jerk reaction to what they last saw. The way in which a team won or lost, expectations vis-à-vis program trajectory and traditional inferiority complex of fan base all factor into this ranking.)
Texas staggering after troubling 50-7 loss to No. 4 TCU
1. Texas: Beyond the fact that Texas is not very good at offense or defense, let’s talk about their special teams for a moment. Any Texas fan who has the stomach for a field goal or punting attempt without closing their eyes by this point deserves free season tickets next year (plenty will be available).
Texas is bad at kicking field goals (and extra points for that matter), bad at long snapping and bad at punting. Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? After a missed extra point against Cal cost Texas a chance at overtime and a shanked punt helped give Oklahoma State a victory last week, you’d think it couldn't get worse. Then Texas went and sailed a snap over its punter’s head for a safety and put the ensuing free kick out of bounds, aiding and abetting TCU’s early 16-0 lead.
Meanwhile, kicker Nick Rose went 0-for-2 on field goals to complete the miserable performance. Though it's unlikely those miscues made a difference in the outcome of the game, it’s continuing a trend that should not happen in a well-run football organization. Texas, quite simply, looks like it does not know what its doing in the special teams phase. And given its shortcomings in other areas, its ineptitude here qualifies as cruel and unusual punishment.
2. Miami (Fla.): If you’ve got fans dedicated enough to fly a “Fire Al Golden” banner in an entirely different part of the country, you’ve earned a spot in the Misery Index. And that’s exactly what happened, courtesy of a picture sent by a reader from Cincinnati on Thursday of a small plane towing the following message: “I FLEW 1,124 MILES JUST TO SAY #FIREEALGOLDEN.” You would assume that a person behind such a movement is so committed to the cause that he or she would actively root against their favorite team to speed up the process of firing the coach. (That’s classic Misery Index behavior.)
If so, that person got his wish on Thursday when the Hurricanes suffered a 34-23 loss to a Cincinnati team that also is 0-2 in the American Athletic Conference. Let’s be clear: Cincinnati is pretty good. Still, if Miami was Miami as we once knew it, there would have been no reason to lose this game. But here’s the reality for Miami right now: The Hurricanes have some talent, but not demonstrably more than your run of the mill top-40 team.
And though Golden might not be a bad coach, Miami’s coaching staff does not seem to generate any real advantages either. That’s not a combination that will typically get you much more than 7-5 or 8-4 at this level, which is about what Miami fans should expect under the current circumstances. That absolutely does not absolve Golden of this mess because he recruited the players and hired the assistant coaches, but Miami is basically getting what it has paid for.
What Miami needs to figure out is if it has the institutional will to be great in football again and pay what that costs. That means everything from its coaching hires to facilities to game-day atmosphere to academics to fostering an environment where the all-encompassing history of “The U” — even the part that might make administrators uncomfortable — is leveraged in recruiting and branding. Unless that happens, the next coach probably won't be a whole lot more successful than this one.
At 2-3, Huskers' start worst since 1959, Riley taking heat
3. Nebraska: Poor, poor Nebraska. We aren’t even sure what to say anymore. Well, we can say this. Mike Riley’s honeymoon lasted all of a month. Nice guy, understands Nebraska, brings experience, comports himself with maturity and class, blah, blah, blah, blah. Sure, some of those things factored into Nebraska's decision to sack Bo Pelini and bring in Riley, but let’s get real. The fix was supposed to be getting Nebraska out of its rut of 9-4 seasons. So far, it’s not happening.
The Huskers are 2-3 with losses to BYU on a Hail Mary, at Miami in overtime (after playing awful for three quarters, then mounting an insane comeback) and Saturday at Illinois 14-13 after giving up a touchdown with 10 seconds left. This one will stick to Riley because it was horribly bungled at the end. Illinois was out of timeouts. Nebraska, up 13-7 and in Illinois territory, should have been in run-out-the-clock mode, holding the ball with a minute to go. If Nebraska just runs the ball on third down, Illinois can’t stop the clock, which means Illinois’ best-case scenario would be getting the ball back with 15 seconds, maybe less, and needing to drive 70 yards to win.
Instead, inexplicably, Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong threw a pass. It was incomplete. Illinois got the ball back, needing only 41 seconds to drive 73 yards and deliver yet another gut-punch. According to Riley, Armstrong was supposed to run the ball. So he probably decided to pass it on his own.
Still, if the quarterback isn’t on the same page with the coaches in such a critical situation, that's on the adults. It’s inexcusable. And now Riley has dug a hole with the Nebraska fan base before his tenure has even gotten off the ground. You can’t lose games that winnable to opponents that mediocre in a fashion that crushing. Not at Nebraska. Not ever.
4. Notre Dame: Brian Kelly has an interesting relationship with the Notre Dame fan base, and by interesting we mean they just don’t like him very much. That isn’t to say he is despised or that the majority who don’t reside on the lunatic fringe want to run him out of town. He isn’t Charlie Weis by any means, but there’s an odd distance there.
Fans generally want to believe deeply in coaches, which is why the cycle of sainting them based on potential turns so toxic when they fall short of expectations. Kelly doesn’t really inspire that kind of belief. He is more matter of fact in the way he approaches the job and very blunt about Notre Dame’s strengths and weaknesses as a program, which might be why those pesky NFL rumors seem to float up every year and why he’s never been given the full embrace by Notre Dame Nation.
The Misery Index received a text message late Saturday night from a friend who happens to be a lifelong Notre Dame fan. We cannot share the contents of that text due to the vulgarity and personal insults it contained, but suffice it to say the sender would not be disappointed if Kelly took one of those NFL jobs after this season. Which is absolutely crazy, by the way, and the underlying problem with Notre Dame fans.
They are constantly looking at the small picture (Saturday’s dramatic 24-22 loss at Clemson and a controversial coaching decision on a two-point conversion that may have cost the Irish) and not the big one, where Kelly has recruited an insane amount of talent to South Bend (not the easiest thing in the world to do) and put the program in some massively big games the last few years.
Notre Dame hasn't won them all and won’t win them all, especially if they lose multiple starters to injury in September every year. But the Irish are at least playing in the right neighborhood, and Notre Dame fans would be wise to remember that. Because if Notre Dame has shown anything over the last 20 years it’s the ability to screw up coaching hires. Kelly wasn’t one of those screw-ups, and for that they should be at least a little bit thankful.
No big conclusions for Alabama, but a big improvement
5. Georgia: It happened again. Seven years after the infamous “Blackout” game in Athens that announced Alabama’s return as a national power, Georgia had an opportunity to make amends. There were no special jerseys, no crazy buildup (at least internally). Mark Richt took a low-key approach to the week, at least as much as possible. It was basically the opposite everything that happened seven years ago.
And still, Alabama came into Sanford Stadium and basically did the same thing. Georgia got stomped. In 2008, it was 31-0 at halftime. In 2015, it was 31-3 two minutes into the third quarter before a 38-10 final score. Combined with Alabama beating Georgia in the 2012 SEC championship game, it’s very possible Richt’s career at Georgia will be framed by those three losses to Nick Saban when it’s all said and done. Maybe that’s not fair, but it’s becoming reality.
The first one knocked Georgia out of the top five, and it took the Bulldogs three years to recover. The second one, which came down to the final play, cost Richt a shot at the national title. This one will cost the Bulldogs any hint of legitimacy in a year where it looked like they might have the goods. Georgia’s quarterbacks were exposed (starter Greyson Lambert threw for 86 yards). Its defense was overpowered. Its energy was oddly missing. And now Georgia fans have to hope this team wins out in the regular season — it’s certainly capable from a talent perspective — and does something special in the SEC championship game.
But at some point, Georgia fans will tire of having their hopes raised and then taken away in such overwhelming fashion. The history of failing to step up in these kinds of moments is long and well-established. Many of them love Richt because he’s a quality human being and runs his program the so-called right way. But in the end, you get what you tolerate.
6. Tennessee: “The plan is infallible if the players buy in.” Those were the words Butch Jones uttered on Dec. 7, 2012, at his introductory news conference in Knoxville after taking what he professed to be his “dream job.” Some dream, huh? And about that infallible plan … well, Butch, this is big-boy, SEC football. Nothing is infallible.
At 2-3, Tennessee's fan base is absolutely a raging bonfire of angst. The losses. The blown leads. The coaching gaffes. The inability to generate a passing game. The slogans and clichés. The empty promises. The prospect of sliding to 2-5 with games coming up against Georgia and Alabama. Sure, theoretically Tennessee could win those games and turn the season around, but there's literally no evidence Jones is capable of such a recovery.
He is 14-16 as Tennessee’s head coach with wins against Austin Peay, Western Kentucky, South Alabama, Utah State, Arkansas State, Chattanooga, Bowling Green, Western Carolina, South Carolina (twice), Kentucky (twice), Vanderbilt and Iowa. Whole lot of empty calories on that record. Meanwhile, Tennessee has to look at what’s going on in Gainesville and feel absolutely sick.
You think first-year coaches can't make a difference? You think everything has to be about a three-year plan? Think again. Jim McElwain has stormed into Gainesville and re-energized Florida football, winning big games with an offensive line that was supposed to get overwhelmed in the SEC and skill players who spent their years under Will Muschamp allergic to the end zone. This wasn’t supposed to be possible until McElwain got a couple recruiting classes and a chance to install his offensive system. Instead, it's happening now, leaving Tennessee fans with a sinking feeling that the next decade may go just about like the last one.
Tennessee's Butch Jones should coach with common sense, not off a card
7. Maryland: If you follow Twitter during the 31/2-hour period on any Saturday when Maryland is playing, you are likely to see a constant stream of Tweets about how awful Maryland is from people who have no vested interest in Maryland football. So just imagine how the fans feel. It is, quite simply, stunning ineptitude on every level.
The week began with news of a players-only meeting, which isn’t notable except that it was news to the head coach, Randy Edsall, who was presented with that information on a media call and admitted he did not know about it. That’s a problem. So is losing 28-0 at home to Michigan while completing 10 of 36 passes for 76 yards with three interceptions and being unable to run the ball either.
On 15 offensive drives, the Terps had a stunning 10 three-and-outs. Edsall talked about personnel changes, particularly at quarterback, but it probably won’t matter. This team is really bad and would be fortunate to finish with four wins at this point. There is no way Maryland football should be this much of a mess, but this wasn't a one-time thing. It was a continuation of what we've seen from Maryland every time out this year against a quality opponent.
The conventional thinking is that Maryland will soldier on with its current coaching staff because it has a good recruiting class coming in next year, Edsall still has an excellent track record and he deserves an opportunity he can transition the program successfully into the Big Ten with competitive facilities that are being built in the near future. But once things cross from anger to apathy with a fan base, that becomes very difficult to overcome. You can still get people back when they’re angry. When they’re detached emotionally, even wins are written off as accidental and they simply wait for the next dip to say, “I told you so.”
8. Ole Miss: It must take a special kind of fatalism to be an Ole Miss fan because even when the Rebels were soaking in the victory at Alabama and listening to the entire college football world stamp them as legitimate national championship contenders, this fan base was steadfast in its certainty that something would go wrong.
At least this time it didn’t happen with their most talented player suffering a season-ending injury at the goal line as he fumbled the winning touchdown. At least this time there was no such late game drama to amplify the pain. At least this time there were no illusions that Ole Miss was anything other than one of college football’s good but deeply flawed teams, of which there seem to be many.
The Rebels were never really a threat at Florida, losing 38-10 in The Swamp against a team most people assumed they’d beat fairly routinely. And though Ole Miss isn’t out of the race in the SEC West, this game exposed things that are not easy to fix. For starters, the Rebels just can’t run the ball very well. They never have under Hugh Freeze, and Saturday’s performance — 69 yards on 33 carries — was more the norm than the exception. Meanwhile, Freeze is building up quite a résumé of odd decisions in big games (Remember how he bungled the end of the LSU game last year?).
Trailing 25-0 at half, Ole Miss started the third quarter with a 19-play drive that consumed nearly 10 minutes. In other words, a team trailing by four scores burned 1/3 of the remaining clock before settling for a 22-yard field goal. Sorry, but in that situation, with as much time as you’ve taken and as many points as you need to catch up, you have to go for it on fourth-and-goal at the 5-yard line. That’s the game right there.
Instead, Ole Miss took the three points — hope you enjoyed them, Hugh — and never threatened after that. Meanwhile, there’s urgency around the program to get every ounce out of this season because a number of the Rebels’ star players are expected to enter the NFL Draft. Is it now or never? That thought is going to be lodged in their minds forever if they fall short of Atlanta.
9. Central Florida: OK, this is real. The Knights have a legitimate shot at going 0-12. That was undoubtedly the takeaway Saturday after they were beaten soundly, 45-31, by a Tulane team that resides at the lower end of the American Athletic Conference. Yes, UCF has some injuries and is obviously not as talented as years past, but this is still a stunning season for what once looked like an emerging mid-major power.
If you’re looking for a silver lining, the Knights scored more than 16 points for the first time this season. But the bad news? They did it via garbage time scores after trailing 38-10 in the fourth quarter. Does UCF get a win this season? The best opportunities would appear to be Nov. 26 against South Florida and this week at home against UConn. But let’s remember: UConn coach Bob Diaco takes this game seriously. Very, very seriously. So seriously he created a trophy and put a countdown clock to this game in the UConn football facility. Then again, given the current state of the UCF program, this may be the only trophy the Knights have a chance to win for a long, long time.
10. UCLA: On a recent podcast with colleague Paul Myerberg, we pondered who is the new Clemson now that Clemson is out of the Clemsoning business. We came to the conclusion that the new Clemson is UCLA. Now, you have to understand the genesis of Clemsoning, which is a greatly misunderstood phenomenon. The true definition of it is to build a reputation of being better than you really are, only to get exposed by a lesser team. (The reason Clemsoning no longer applies to Clemson is because it has beaten enough quality teams to justify its reputation while also avoiding losses to bad teams).
This is now a pattern embraced by UCLA. Last year, the Bruins were bestowed darkhorse playoff contender status early on (despite no evidence to prove they belonged there) and rose all the way to No. 8 before suffering a home loss to unranked Utah, one week ahead of a potential prove-it game against Oregon. UCLA also suffered another head-scratcher last season, losing at home to Stanford when it had a chance to win the Pac 12 South.
UCLA had us fooled again this year, apparently, with a 4-0 start against teams that looked better a few weeks ago than they do now. And just like last year, UCLA’s 38-23 home loss to unranked Arizona State has exposed the Bruins as once again undeserving of the hype granted upon them. This isn’t to say UCLA is bad. They’re not. Jim Mora’s 33-12 record speaks for itself. But before we put UCLA and College Football Playoff or Pac 12 champs in the same sentence ever again, the Bruins need to actually beat somebody elite.
Honorable mention (miserable, but not miserable enough): Fresno State, South Florida, South Carolina, Kansas State
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