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NCAA tournament bracketology: Projecting the field of 68

Shelby Mast
USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State Spartans guard Denzel Valentine (45) drives to the basket against the Wisconsin Badgers during the second half of a game at Jack Breslin Student Events Center.

The hits just keep on coming. Last night it was Maryland's turn to take a really bad loss at Minnesota, who was winless in conference before this game. Maryland now falls to the No. 4 line, while Michigan State jumps to the No. 2 line after its win against Wisconsin. Iowa, meanwhile, moves back up a spot to the No. 3 line. Connecticut got a solid, much-needed win against SMU to improve to the No. 7 line. Tulsa needed overtime but got the win against Cincinnati, moving the Golden Hurricane in and Cincinnati out, but not far out. Utah hurt UCLA's chances with a road in Los Angeles. California got a much needed road win and, in the process, knocked Washington out for now, Butler takes the Huskies' place.

Projections as of 10 a.m. ET on Feb. 19. 

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Last four in: Temple, VCU, Tulsa, Butler

First four out: Cincinnati, Washington, Florida State, LSU

Moving in: IPFW, Tulsa, Butler

Moving out: South Dakota State, Washington, Cincinnati 

Loss to Minnesota reveals Maryland is far from top seed material

Others considered for at-large bids (in order): UCLA, Clemson, George Washington, Vanderbilt, St. Mary's, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State, Creighton, Ohio State, Georgia, Georgetown.

No longer considered for at-large bid: UNLV, Louisiana Tech, Georgia State, Illinois, Northern Iowa, Texas-Arlington, Penn State, Richmond, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Mississippi, Auburn, Memphis, Wake Forest, Southern Illinois, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Evansville, North Carolina State, Boise State, BYU, Northwestern, Middle Tennessee State, Georgia Tech, Marquette, Stanford, Davidson, Arizona State.

Previewing the top 10 college basketball games this weekend

Multi-bid conferences: ACC (7), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Pac-12 (7), Big East (5),SEC (5),  A-10 (3), AAC (3).

Leaders or highest RPI from projected one-bid conferences (24 total):  Stony Brook (America East), North Florida (Atlantic Sun), Montana (Big Sky), North Carolina-Ashville (Big South), Hawaii (Big West), North Carolina-Wilmington (CAA), Alabama-Birmingham (CUSA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Yale (Ivy), Monmouth (MAAC), Akron (Mid-American), Hampton (MEAC), San Diego State (MWC), Wichita State (MVC), Wagner (NEC), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Bucknell (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), IPFW (Summit), Little Rock (Sun Belt), Texas Southern (SWAC), New Mexico State (WAC), Gonzaga (WCC).

Bracket Impact games tonight: Akron at Kent State, Richmond at VCU, Yale at Princeton, Oakland at Valparaiso, Iona at Monmouth

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Banned from participating: Alcorn State (SWAC), Florida A&M (MEAC), Stetson (Atlantic Sun) Central Arkansas (Southland), SMU (AAC), Southern Miss (C-USA), Pacific (WCC), Cal-State Northridge (Big West), Missouri (SEC), Louisville (ACC)

Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney: Abilene Christian (Southland), Grand Canyon (WAC), Incarnate Word (Southland), UMass-Lowell (American East), Northern Kentucky (Horizon)

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Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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