What to look for on the college football coaching carousel

In the middle of what already shaped up to be the wildest college football coaching carousel in recent memory, LSU's move toward removing Les Miles over the past week has turned the industry on its head.

It isn't official, isn't done, but it's hard to imagine how LSU goes back now with leaks springing from the LSU Board of Supervisors and athletics director Joe Alleva tacitly endorsing change through his silence.

So in a year when big jobs like Southern California, Miami, Virginia Tech and South Carolina are all open, you can probably add LSU next week. And imagine the chaos if Georgia makes a move on Mark Richt or Brian Kelly leaves Notre Dame for the NFL.

Meanwhile, the next tier of open Power Five jobs like Missouri, Maryland, Syracuse and Illinois face a simple supply-and-demand conundrum.

There are already more jobs open than attractive candidates. And more are going to open.

NFL DRAFT HUB: Latest NFL Draft mock drafts, news, live picks, grades and analysis.

That's why some schools like Purdue and perhaps Indiana, should Kevin Wilson get to 6-6, will stand pat and wait out this cycle. They know they'd be pretty far down the food chain.

Meanwhile, athletics directors who have coaches they like are are desperately hoping they don't have to go find a new one this year. Though good ADs keep an eye on the landscape to make sure they're not flat-footed, the general feeling nationally is that this isn't a deep pool of up-and-coming candidates to draw from.

Aside from the hot names like Houston's Tom Herman, Memphis' Justin Fuente, Temple's Matt Rhule, Air Force's Troy Calhoun, Toledo's Matt Campbell and Bowling Green's Dino Babers, the Group of Five ranks are going to be tapped out. Athletics directors will have to get creative. Meanwhile, one person with direct knowledge who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the private nature of the matter said discussions between Fuente's representatives and Virginia Tech are already fairly advanced and that Fuente is by far the favorite to be first off the board.

The rest will play out from there, but it's also true a lot of the backchannel discussions could be paused (or pressured to ramp up) this week with LSU hanging in limbo. The ripple effects of LSU making a hire could be felt everywhere. Meanwhile, here are coaching carousel predictions for the next week:

There will be a lot of disappointment

Even in a relatively quiet year for coaching movement, fans' expectations for a search are typically much higher than the realistic list of candidates.

History shows it is extremely difficult to get a accomplished, successful Power Five head coach to leave their job. Bret Bielema moving from Wisconsin to Arkansas three years ago, for instance, is the exception rather than the rule. That's why names like SMU's Chad Morris will be in play for jobs this year despite the fact he is 2-9 in his first season as a head coach.

In this environment, schools will have to grade candidates on a curve and hope they've done their homework. Nevertheless, the sheer numbers suggest there are going to be some underwhelming names getting some of these bigger jobs.

There will be a USC surprise

If you have any solid intelligence about what's going on with the USC search, you're way ahead of the game

Athletics director Pat Haden has mostly gone underground the past two months, in part because his health is an issue but also because he knows the tide of public opinion has turned against him. And Haden, who has been treated like a USC legend his whole life, has no interest in the public embarrassment of showing up at a football game and getting booed.

Is it fair for LSU to fire coach Les Miles?

Beyond that, there is remarkably little information floating out there about what USC plans to do. Interim coach Clay Helton has done a good job, but it's hard to imagine him being seriously considered unless the Trojans beat UCLA this weekend.

There are no obvious college head coaches who fit, which could point to an NFL hire. Is USC waiting for things to fall apart with the Eagles so it can make a legitimate push for Chip Kelly? Is Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien in the mix? Is Haden even the one in charge of the hiring process?

There will be an interesting Tom Herman decision

It's certainly possible that Houston's Herman, who is 10-1 in his first season as a head coach, will simply take the best job available. But his agent, Trace Armstrong, has let it be known that Herman's best option may be to stay at Houston and wait for the perfect job to come along. That's especially true now that Houston is willing to pay $3 million per year to keep him.

University of Houston gives Herman raise in first season

Of course if USC calls or LSU gets enough rejections or Georgia pops open, that's a different story. But why go to South Carolina and bang your head against the wall in a complete rebuilding situation or Missouri where things are a bit unstable? Herman's best bet at the moment may be to see how things shake out at Texas over the next year.

There will be Chip Kelly speculation

With the Eagles trending downward quickly, chatter about Kelly returning to the college ranks is going ramp up. There are a lot of reasons why it doesn't make sense, including the amount of money and control he has in the NFL, but if the situation becomes untenable and he simply can't go back to the Eagles next year, things could get wild. Obviously LSU (if it indeed opens) and USC would generate the most heat.

There will be a raid of the Alabama coaching staff

It seems a good bet that two, and perhaps three, Nick Saban assistants will get head coaching jobs this year.

By far the most likely is Kirby Smart, who is turning 40 next month but is already in his eighth year as defensive coordinator. At one point in the past few years, the thinking that was that Smart would either wait for Georgia, his alma mater, or perhaps stay at Alabama and position himself to replace Saban.

But it appears that neither scenario is happening any time soon, and even if Richt were removed at Georgia this year, it's unlikely the Bulldogs would turn to Smart. In other words, it's time for Smart to go out on his own if he can get a good job, and that may very well be South Carolina.

As far as offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, there will be so much turnover it seems almost inevitable that he lands somewhere. Kiffin wants to be a head coach, and it will not be very difficult for an athletics director to convince himself that Kiffin's years with Saban have helped him mature. Some will consider Kiffin too polarizing to hire, but he does have good qualities and can recruit, which is ultimately the name of the game. It seems more likely than not someone will find a match this year.

Then there's offensive line coach Mario Cristobal, who could very well end up at Miami and will have the backing of a number of former players and south Florida high school coaches. Cristobal's 27-47 record at Florida International is misleading because he built it from nothing into something respectable, which has gone back to being a trainwreck since he was fired.

Don't cry for Saban, though, should he lose all three. Current defensive backs coach Mel Tucker or Georgia defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt could slide into Smart's seat, and there will be no shortage of talented playcallers who want to work at Alabama.

There will not be very many black coaches hired (again)

A person in the coaching search business who asked not to be identified for competitive reasons reached out recently to gauge opinion on the top coordinators who come from minority ethnic backgrounds. Sadly, it's not a long list. That's a major problem for the industry as a whole, and there's a very good chance there will be even fewer black head coaches next year in FBS than the current 11 (like Tulane's Curtis Johnson, Virginia's Mike London could be ousted soon).

Certainly some current black coaches could end up with better jobs, including Bowling Green's Dino Babers and South Florida's Willie Taggart who, remarkably, was on the hot seat just two months ago. But as far as up-and-coming coordinators ready to move into head coaching jobs, there is simply not a very deep pool.

Navy offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper would only appeal to an athletics director who wants to run the option. Duke offensive coordinator Scottie Montgomery and Clemson co-offensive coordinator Tony Elliott are both intriguing prospects. Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford would breathe life into a program, but he's coming off a bad season. A handful of position coaches like LSU running backs coach Frank Wilson and Mississippi State quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson are on their way up, but most athletics directors prefer coordinator experience first.

There will be a retread season

Once the second wave of hires hit — meaning schools that lost coaches to better jobs and need to backfill — a lot of familiar names will get tossed around.

You can count on Ed Orgeron, Houston Nutt and Mack Brown publicly and privately expressing interest in numerous jobs. If Miles wants another job, he can probably get one in five minutes. Gene Chizik has a national championship, and his work this season turning around North Carolina's defense has put himself in position to probably get another chance.

Dana Dimel, the former Houston and Wyoming coach who is now Kansas State's offensive coordinator could be in the mix for a job like Iowa State or Kansas State if Bill Snyder retires. Greg Schiano is not a sexy name, but it's hard to argue with what he accomplished at Rutgers, so he'd make sense at one of the mid-Atlantic jobs.

It might be hard to hire Al Golden right away off the Miami debacle, but he's an option. And Jeff Tedford, who did very little with a lot of NFL talent at Cal and got the program into APR hell to boot, might persuade someone into giving him a shot.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL COACHING CAROUSEL