USA TODAY/Rock the Vote poll: Millennials' agenda for the next president
WASHINGTON — Millennials have a message for the next president.
Get serious about converting to renewable energy, the under-35 generation says by an overwhelming margin, and require every gun buyer to undergo a background check. They endorse putting body cameras on police officers and accepting refugees from war-torn countries such as Syria.
A USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Millennial Poll finds an emerging generation that is more pragmatic than ideological and not yet firmly aligned with either political party. Donald Trump leads the Republican field among millennials, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders the Democratic one — especially among millennial women. Across partisan lines, millennials have reached a generational consensus on some of the major issues that have proved divisive for their elders.
What is less certain, the national survey shows, is whether they'll bother to vote in 2016, even in an election where they identify an agenda they call crucial.
President Obama is preparing to deliver his State of the Union Address before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, and the contests to win the Democratic and Republican nominations to succeed him begin in just three weeks — an apt moment to look at attitudes of a demographic tide that over time is likely to reshape American politics. The poll is part of USA TODAY's One Nation initiative, a series of forums across the country on the most important issues of 2016.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
The online survey by Ipsos, the first of four this year in conjunction with Rock the Vote, was taken last Monday through Thursday of 1,141 adults, ages 18 through 34. The credibility interval, akin to a margin of error, is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
"I'm a voter," declares Stephanie Acs, 27, a Navy veteran now attending school in Albuquerque who was among those polled. "If I have a view on something, I don't just post it on Facebook or Twitter." But Dewayne Smithy, 33, of Baldwin, Miss., dismisses the idea that casting a ballot is likely to make a difference. "I can't really find a candidate that I like, for one thing," he said in a follow-up phone interview.
The top issue by far for millennials is the economy, including concerns about jobs, the minimum wage and paid leave. On that, millennials have the same pocketbook focus as baby boomers and Gen Xers. "I want to make sure the economy is flourishing," says Misha Shah, 32, of Chicago, an account executive for a tech firm that sells networking and storage. "When the economy slows down, it's a domino effect. That's when companies start getting leaner" and layoffs can threaten.
The economy also matters to Yendri Badilla, 26, of Lakewood, N.J., now juggling three jobs to make ends meet.
Their second-ranking issue is specific to their stage of life: college affordability and student debt. That's followed closely by foreign policy and terrorism, health care and guns. A combination of those who cite climate change and those who cite energy puts that issue in the top rank as well.
Brianne Stone, 29, of Huntsville, Ala., says her biggest concern is global warming. "We aren't going to take any actions, and by the time that we do, it's going to be the point that it's too late," she says. She wants the candidates "first and foremost to admit that it's a real thing."
"If we don't have a place to live, then it doesn't really make sense to worry about anything else," agrees Scott McGeary, 34, of Seattle, citing the threat of climate change to the future of the planet.
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By an overwhelming 80%-10%, those surveyed say the United States should transition to mostly clean or renewable energy by 2030, an ambitious goal that would surely require the leadership of the next president. By more than 2-1, they say the government should invest more heavily in buses and rail.
By a lopsided 82%-12%, millennials support background checks for all gun purchasers. While that's an issue that splits congressional Democrats and Republicans, there is almost no partisan divide on it among millennials: 89% of young Democrats and 83% of young Republicans endorse universal background checks.
By double digits, those surveyed say stricter gun laws would help prevent gun violence, though they blame failures in the mental-health system, not gun laws, for mass shootings. And a 58% majority want to protect the Second Amendment right of Americans to buy guns.
"I'm all for the Second Amendment and protecting it," says Jorge Antonio Villasenor Llamas, 31, of Tujunga, Calif., but he was shocked when he heard about the so-called gun show loophole that allows some purchasers to bypass background checks. "It kind of scares me," he says.
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Ideology? What Ideology?
When it comes to public policy, millennials aren't reliably liberal or conservative.
On economic issues, more call themselves conservative (38%) than liberal (33%). By a wider margin, on foreign policy, they also are inclined to describe themselves as conservative (37% to 28%). It is on social issues that they lean left: 42% say they're liberal, 32% call themselves conservative on questions including race relations and gay rights.
Even so, voters under 35 have a partisan tilt: 41% identify with the Democratic Party, just 28% with the GOP. That presumably means the Republican Party's stance on social issues is undercutting its potential appeal to millennials on foreign policy and the economy.
"They are just campaigning based on hate and intolerance and not anything positive and not anything constructive," says Robert Pelletier, 34, of Blairs, Va. He probably will support Democrat Hillary Clinton. "The other side isn't giving me any options."
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Donald Trump easily leads the field among younger Republicans and independents, at 26%, but that is a lower level of support that the billionaire businessman now holds in the overall electorate. He is backed by 34% of GOP voters in the RealClearPolitics average of recent national surveys.
"I'm not really sure where I stand on him right now," says Acs, the student from New Mexico and a Republican. Trump's support nationwide and in key states means "he must be doing something right," she says, "but I don't know if I would vote for him."
No other Republican contender seems to have broken through, at least not yet. Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are bunched within 3 points of one another. Other contenders are in low single digits.
On the Democratic side, among the overall electorate in national polls, Clinton now leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by close to 20 percentage points. But Sanders, the oldest candidate running, has captured the allegiance of younger voters. The 73-year-old democratic socialist from the Green Mountain State is leading Clinton, 46%-35%, among millennial Democrats and independents.
"The Bernie Sanders thing has really got me on board," says McGeary, an IT professional from Seattle. "I was pretty cynical at first about the whole movement — I mean, I supported it, but I had no idea it would pick up this kind of steam." He praises Sanders' reliance on small donors and lumps Clinton in with the Republican field as "people who keep protecting corporations instead of people."
Indeed, he says he might leave the country if Sanders isn't elected because of his frustration that the United States isn't doing more to address issues such as social inequality and health care.
There is an age divide within the millennial generation. Among those 18 to 25 years old, Sanders has a big lead. Among those 26 to 34, Clinton has a small edge.
There is a gender gap as well — and not the one that favors Clinton among baby boomer women. Men under 35 support Sanders by 4 percentage points. Women back him by almost 20 points. The possibility of breaking new ground by electing the first female president apparently carries less persuasive power among younger women than their mothers' generation.
Stone is ready to support Clinton, though she prefers Sanders. "He's actually talking about breaking up the big banks and helping income inequality," she says, "and given that I'm currently unemployed, income inequality is pretty important."
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Addressing violence
By 2-1, millennials see police violence against African Americans as a problem, and three-fourths say the government should require police officers to wear body cameras to protect citizens. Two-thirds support reducing the prison sentences for people convicted of non-violent crimes such as drug possession.
There is less consensus when it comes to fighting terrorism: 47% say the United States should commit troops on the ground to combat the self-proclaimed Islamic State; 37% disagree. On this issue, there is a partisan divide: a 69% majority of Republicans support deploying ground forces; a 45% plurality of Democrats oppose the idea.
By 53%-37%, younger Americans say the United States should accept refugees from foreign conflicts such as in Syria, a question that has inflamed the Republican presidential contest. On that, Democratic millennials support the idea by more than 2-1; a majority of Republicans oppose it. Democrats overwhelmingly say the United States should help alleviate extreme poverty in other countries as a way to combat extremism; Republicans split evenly on the question.
The threat of terrorism by radical extremists has helped shape the millennial generation the way the Cold War shaped baby boomers. The millennials were between 4 and 20 years old when the 9/11 attackers struck in 2001; now some have served themselves in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The rising generation is distinctive in other ways as well — from adopting new technology to dealing with an economy in which wages have long been stagnant for most workers. The U.S. Census Bureau says millennials, now numbering 75.3 million, in 2015 surpassed baby boomers as the largest living generation.
Other national polls have found fears that the classic American dream is imperiled. If so, this is the generation most likely to suffer the consequences.
That said, the USA TODAY/Rock the Vote poll found a generally upbeat attitude: 57% say they are optimistic about the future of the United States; 34% are pessimistic.
They see many ways in which an individual can bring about change, including volunteering in their community or running for office themselves. But the message they send about voting is mixed: Only a third say they're likely to vote in the Republican primaries. Four in 10 say they're likely to vote in the Democratic primaries. Six in 10 say they are likely to vote in November.
Fifty-five percent agree "there are better ways to make a difference than voting." But three of four also say voting is a way to change things in their communities and have an impact on issues they care about. A majority say their vote could decide an election.
"These poll numbers should put to rest the notion that Millennials are unaware of the value of their vote," said Ashley Spillane, president of Rock the Vote. "But the numbers also underscore how critical the work we do to engage young people in the entire civic process — from demystifying registration and voting to providing key information about candidates and issues. It's on all of us to make sure new voter to know how much critical they are to the future of our democracy."
"You are getting something given to you and it's a gift; a lot of people in other countries don't have that right," says Badilla, the New Jersey woman who is working three jobs — as a receptionist at a car dealership and at a coffee shop during the week, then as an accountant for her uncle on weekends. Her parents were immigrants. "I was raised to believe that every vote makes a difference. You never know if yours is the one vote that will tip the scales for the right president."
