Trump looks for third win in a row in Tuesday's Nevada caucuses

LAS VEGAS — Donald Trump rolls into Nevada on a hot streak, while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are looking to weaken his grip on the GOP presidential race.

Trump, the easy winner of primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, is the heavy favorite to win again when Nevada Republicans hold caucuses on Tuesday.

"He's probably going to get about 35% of the vote, and it will be enough to win," predicted Eric Herzik, who chairs the political science department at the University of Nevada, Reno.

Rubio and Cruz have long been organized in the state, but figure to split the votes that do not go to the New York billionaire, according to analysts and polls. John Kasich and Ben Carson also remain in the Republican race but are expected to finish well back in the Silver State.

Nevada is the first Republican delegate contest since South Carolina moved Trump another step closer to the GOP presidential nomination on Saturday. He leads pre-caucus polls in Nevada, though such surveys have been off in previous elections.

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It doesn't hurt Trump that his name hovers above the Las Vegas Strip, emblazoned atop his hotel. His brash outsider, anti-government message plays well throughout the state, analysts said.

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"That's very appealing to Nevada Republicans, or at least a good portion of them," said Michael Green, an associate history professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Rubio, who edged out Cruz for second place in South Carolina, said that primary turned the GOP presidential race into a three-person contest. Both Rubio and Cruz are seeking to become the main alternative to Trump, who despite his success has high unfavorable ratings.

As in South Carolina, Rubio's campaign strategy relies heavily on endorsements from local lawmakers and celebrities. His list in Nevada ranges from Sen. Dean Heller to Pawn Stars star Rick Harrison.

“If you nominate me, we will unite this party and grow it,” Rubio told supporters in North Las Vegas over the weekend. “This is the face of the new conservative movement."

Rubio, a Florida senator who lived in Las Vegas as a child, is a Nevada long shot, however, and isn't even planning to be in the state on caucus night. He will instead be campaigning in Minnesota in the afternoon, one of many states holding a contest on March 1, and Michigan later in the evening, which holds a primary on March 8.

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Cruz, seeking to recover from a disappointing third place in South Carolina, has stressed the fact that he is the one candidate who has prevailed in a contest with Trump: a Feb. 1 triumph in the Iowa caucuses.

Before speaking with supporters at a neighborhood YMCA in Las Vegas Monday, Cruz said there are only three "viable" candidates left in the GOP race, and, "at this point here in Nevada, it's all about turnout."

The Texas senator also announced on Monday he was firing spokesman Rick Tyler for spreading false information on social media that Rubio had mocked the Bible.

"Our campaign should not have sent it," Cruz said.

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Kasich, the governor of Ohio, and Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, are considered long shots in Nevada.

During an appearance in Reno, Carson said: "Now that there are just five candidates left … hopefully we can talk about policies and solutions, and not just make it a popularity contest."

The Nevada contest comes as an increasing number of Republicans say Trump may well be the nominee, whether the so-called establishment likes it or not.

"I think there's more than a 50% chance he's the nominee," said House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaking on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "And I think that's what's setting in for a lot of people. Could they get their heads around Trump being the nominee?"

Contributing: Jason Hidalgo, Reno Gazette-Journal