Rand Paul facing pressure from his home state

In Kentucky, all top officeholders of both political parties are expected to speak at “Fancy Farm” — the shorthand name for a Catholic Church picnic and forum for raucous political speaking the first Saturday in August at the far western end of the state.

So it was surprising this year when Republican Sen. Rand Paul passed on the event to campaign for president in Iowa. His absence left him defenseless to the blunt barbs that Fancy Farm is known for.

“Rand, look at me …” implored program emcee Matt Jones, a popular local sports radio talk-show host. “You’re not gonna win. You’re not gonna win. The crazy people are voting for Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders … Just come on back and join us here in the state.”

Nearly three months later, polls show Paul's presidential campaign still failing to gain traction. His inability to break through has caused some Kentucky Republicans to suggest it’s time Paul focus on getting re-elected to the U.S. Senate next year — even if they don't outright say he should drop his presidential bid.

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Politico reported last week that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and his allies were quietly ratcheting up pressure on Paul to pay more attention to the Senate race.

Asked for comment, McConnell aide Robert Steurer said in a statement Tuesday, "Sen. McConnell supports Sen. Paul's presidential bid and his Senate re-elect."

Paul's simultaneous presidential and Senate campaigns put him in a unique position among the other long-shot GOP candidates, who are all either former officeholders or are not up for re-election in 2016.

“I think it’s a bad mistake to assume Paul being re-elected to the Senate is a foregone conclusion. We have to expect that the Democrats are going to come really hard against him” said Ted Jackson, a Louisville political consultant. He added that the longer Paul's campaign struggles, the more difficulties he'll face in his first Senate re-election bid. “

But Paul’s presidential campaign manager points to some polling data that he says indicates momentum — Paul did qualify (barely) for Wednesday's prime-time debate in Boulder, Colo., for leading candidates — and vows to press on.

“Rand Paul continues to be on the main stage of the debate,” said Chip Englander. “We’re excited about having a little bit of momentum going into the debate, and we’ll keep pushing.”

Englander notes Paul came in fifth place — with 5% support — in one recent CNN national poll and is showing improvement in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. But the RealClearPolitics rolling average of national polls shows Paul is favored by only 3.4% of Republicans.

Englander also noted that Paul's campaign has more than $2.1 million on hand, and he says Paul’s small-donor contributor base is helping. But during the most recent fundraising quarter that ended Sept. 30, Paul’s campaign reported spending $4.5 million, while taking in only $2.5 million — an unsustainable burn rate.

Many Kentucky Republicans, Jackson included, say Paul has some time, but that next year’s Senate race is critical.

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“Rand Paul is surely smart enough to make his own decision,” said Tom Watson, a member of the state GOP executive committee. “I’m proud of the fact he’s working so hard for what he believes in, but there just hasn’t been a lot of traction nationally, and I certainly don’t want to take a chance on him losing that seat in Kentucky … Sen. McConnell needs all of the soldiers he can find up there.”

The Kentucky Republican Party did Paul a favor in August, rewriting its rules — at Paul’s request — to let Paul run for re-election in the traditional May primary while seeking Kentucky’s presidential delegates in a new GOP presidential caucus on March 5.

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And for now, Paul clearly would be the front-runner in a re-election campaign. No Kentucky Republican has expressed interest in challenging Paul in a primary, and Kentucky has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the late Wendell Ford won his last term in 1992.

Many Democrats are encouraging State Auditor Adam Edelen, whom many view as a rising star in the party, to challenge Paul next year, though Edelen is now locked in a tighter-than-expected re-election campaign to be decided next Tuesday.

Bill Stone, a Louisville businessman and former chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party, says Paul has earned the right to press his presidential campaign until results in early voting states are in hand, and he gives Paul a chance.

“The media has allowed the bloviating Donald Trump to suck all of the oxygen out of the room,” Stone said. “So, no, I have not ruled Rand Paul out. He’s so smart that he could stun the crowd at the debate Wednesday night.”

Paul challenged Trump in both of the national debates so far, but to no effect.

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Englander says it is still early in the campaign. He notes that Wednesday's debate will focus on economic policy, giving Paul a chance to promote his “flat tax plan” that will lower taxes and simplify the tax code, as well as his plan to balance the budget.

“I think we’ve got to make progress …” Englander said. “Campaigns are one day at a time, working hard, putting together the organization. Maybe that’s not sexy, but that’s what’s important and that’s what we’re doing every day.”

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