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Regan: Markets' wild ride to get even bumpier

Trish Regan
for USA TODAY

Another wild day for the markets — with the Dow surging more than 600 points as investors bet money that the Fed won't raise interest rates at its next meeting in September.

Nonetheless, judging by the massive selling earlier in the week, Wall Street may be waking up to the realization that stocks are too richly valued.

Buckle up. The volatility is unlikely to end anytime soon.

USA TODAY contributor Trish Regan anchors "The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan" daily at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Business Network.

Here's where we stand: the U.S. economy is barely growing, earnings growth from corporate America is being achieved increasingly through creative accounting (aka financial engineering) rather than top line sales growth and our global economy is anemic — at best. China's growth is a shadow of its former self and Europe is still reeling from the aftershocks of its debt crisis. Latin America is dependent on the sale of commodities for the health of its economies — but, with oil at less than $40 a barrel, and the rest of the commodity space also weakening, Latin American nations are feeling the pressure.

In sum? There's not a whole lot to get excited about these days and definitely a lot to worry about.

The Chinese are attempting to take a page out of U.S. Fed chief Janet Yellen's playbook, trying to revive growth by lowering rates and theoretically making it easier for investors to borrow. The move may temporarily help the Chinese stock market, but ultimately investors know that aggressively lowering rates can lead to the unintended consequences of asset bubbles, rather than good ol' fashioned growth.

After all, isn't that what is happening here? Stocks have been on a tear — defying bleak U.S. economic fundamentals for more than six years. Unable to earn returns in traditional investments, U.S. investors' appetite for risk has grown to unsupported levels. As such, no one is valuing companies for what they're really worth, but rather, what they're worth with the backing of the Fed.

Investors are like drug users on heroin, and the Fed is their dealer.

Weakness in the Chinese economy spells trouble for other developing economies that are dependent on commodity prices. If oil continues its plunge (and given the glut of supply and lack of demand, it likely will) then, how much will Latin American countries like Brazil and Mexico suffer? The concern is, they may soon be caught struggling to pay their bills. If so, it could lead to a debt crisis in that region.

Here at home, the Fed needs to get rates off zero, but with all the risk on the horizon Yellen also needs to calm the Fed-addicted markets. She recognizes the danger of a Fed-induced asset bubble — and has cited her concern about valuations in the stock market. Even Alan Greenspan recognizes the dangers of low rates — recently telling me that history proves rates will and must go up . . . and, when they do, it's "not good" for stocks.

So, what's the Fed to do?

We'll find out at the Fed's next meeting announcement Sept. 17. In the meantime, get ready for a wild ride.

Trish Regan anchors The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan daily at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Business Network. Follow her on Twitter @Trish_Regan.

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