Six women in best position to derail Serena Williams’ calendar Slam

Venus Williams

Correction: An earlier version of this story stated incorrectly that Venus Williams has not advanced past the Round of 32 in hard-court tournaments this season. She made the quarterfinals in Miami, the semifinal in Doha and a final in Auckland.

Venus Williams hasn’t won the U.S. Open title since 2001. The last time the 35-year-old ended the year inside the top 10 was 2010, and her most recent match against Serena at Wimbledon was a crisp straight-sets win for her younger sister.

Still, there are few players on tour who can match Serena’s powerful groundstrokes and rival her serve, much less pose the daunting mental challenge of having to play a best friend and sister. A win for Venus on hardcourt isn’t so improbable. The last time she defeated Serena was last year in Montreal during the U.S. Open Series.

Historically, Venus has the most competitive record against Serena of any player, and, more topically, the U.S. Open is the only Slam in which the sisters have split wins when they’ve played each other. In their two meetings at the final, Venus beat Serena for the title in 2001, and Serena beat Venus in 2002.

So although tripping up her sister’s sprint to the calendar Slam probably would be one of the most difficult wins of Venus’ career, she’s certainly in the best position to try.

Victoria Azarenka

Much like Venus Williams, Azarenka’s punishing groundstrokes have pushed Serena to desperation in their on-court meetings. Theoretically, since Azarenka, 26, started working with Serena’s old hitting partner/body guard/best friend Sascha Bajin in early March, she even has a little extra insight into Williams’ game.

That theory fell flat at Wimbledon, where Bajin couldn’t help the hard-hitting Belarusian finish off Williams in the quarterfinals, despite Azarkena taking the first set and finishing the match with 20 winners to 11 errors. The U.S.Open might be her best chance to exact revenge.

All three of Azarenka’s wins against Williams were on hardcourts (in Miami in 2009, Doha and Cincinnati in 2013), and she has challenged Williams valiantly the past several years at the U.S.Open, taking her to three sets in the final in 2012 and 2013.

This year, Azarenka was riled enough to break a chair in the locker room after their three-set match at the French Open. Williams’ coach, Patrick Mouratoglou, acknowledged Azarenka showed the same fire weeks later and pushed Williams to another level at Wimbledon. Surely she’ll be eager to do the same in New York, this time perhaps with a different result.

Petra Kvitova

The important thing to remember about Kvitova, especially after her third-round loss at Wimbledon to Jelena Jankovic, is that her game resembles a seesaw. She rarely hits the ground without soaring again. If the pattern holds, Kvitova, 25, is due for a U.S. Open heavenly enough to possibly lift her past her best result so far in New York, the Round of 16 in 2009 and 2012.

In that case, a win against Williams wouldn’t be out of the question, particularly with Kvitova’s strength. Before Belinda Bencic beat Williams in Canada in August, the two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova owned the only win against Williams this year in straight sets in Madrid on clay, ending Williams’ 27-match winning streak on the WTA Tour. Kvitova broke her opponent’s serve six times during that match, after which Williams said she wasn’t feeling quite like herself.

But the Czech is in position to cause Williams trouble not only because her play might be on the upswing. Despite meager results in New York to date, the lefty is a respectable 11-6 on hardcourts this year. Plus, she has a versatile serve, a wicked cross-court backhand still left intact from her Wimbledon-winning days, good movement and, perhaps most important, the knowledge that Williams is in fact beatable.

Madison Keys

Keys’ fourth-round win against Olga Govortsova at Wimbledon launched the 20-year-old American into the second week of a Grand Slam for the second time in her career. Then, en route to a quarterfinal loss to Agnieszka Radwanska, Keys earned the reputation as one of the hardest hitters on court, which puts her in good position should she face Williams in New York.

Keys took on Williams for the first time in an Australian Open semifinal in January and pushed her to a tiebreak in the first set before dropping the second for the match. The Australian Open was Keys’ breakout Slam this year, in which she took down Kvitova in straight sets and beat Venus Williams before running into Serena.

Having finally broken into the top 20, Keys is getting more reps in against tennis’ best and is keeping her game tuned up on the doubles court, playing with the likes of Nick Kyrgios in mixed doubles and England’s Laura Robson in women’s.

If she can find a way to outplace Williams on the court, she could power-blast her way through the world No. 1.

Coco Vandeweghe

One of the sweetest treats of Wimbledon was watching Williams play 23-year-old Heather Watson in a thrilling three-set, third-round match. Though Britain’s Watson undoubtedly left the tournament as England’s sweetheart, fans also fell in love with her peer, America’s Vandeweghe. Vandeweghe, also 23, lost in three sets to Maria Sharapova in the quarterfinals, but she sure did win over Centre Court.

Something like a combination of the two matches isn’t unlikely at the U.S. Open, in which fans would see Vandeweghe (the big-hitting young upstart) try to take down Williams (the veteran champion).

Though it will be nearly impossible to wrestle any of the crowd’s favor away from Williams in Flushing Meadows, if anyone is equipped to try, it’s New York City born-Vandeweghe. She’s fully comfortable — and clearly dangerous — in her role as a confident underdog.

She’ll have no problem reminding the crowd that she, too, is a native daughter.

Crowd support at Wimbledon was clearly an asset to Watson, who was the beneficiary of four double faults from an unsettled Williams.

If Vandeweghe can turn the crowd in New York even a little, she has the athleticism, drive and focus to muscle her way through a real battle with Williams.

She also seems like one of the hungriest players on tour for a Grand Slam title.

And as Williams knows, New York is a great place to win your first.

Serena Williams

On the eve of the U.S. Open, Williams will have held the No. 1 ranking for 132 consecutive weeks — more than two years. It’s a testament to how far ahead of the competition the 33-year-old is that Williams held the top spot
not only throughout her dominant 2015 but also without reaching the quarterfinals of the first three Grand Slam tournaments of 2014.

Realistically, the biggest threat to Serena Williams’ crown is Serena Williams.

Her shoulders have proved strong enough to carry the weight of the feat she might accomplish, especially as those who could have shared some of the pressure this year — first Novak Djokovic, who won the Australian Open and lost in the final at Roland Garros, and then Jordan Spieth, who won golf’s first two major championships but fell short at the British Open — fell to the side one by one.

But there’s a reason no one has completed a calendar Slam since Steffi Graf did it in 1988.

And despite withstanding illness and five three-set matches to win the French Open this season, it would be understandable for Williams to succumb to pressure, fatigue or injury at the end of a year packed with ever-mounting expectation.

No one is immune to a bad day. When Williams is beating herself, she’s more dangerous than any of her opponents.