2015 NBA free agency already is getting confusing
The NBA's free agency period is nearly six months away, but that doesn't mean the process of getting it right hasn't long since begun for the league's 30 teams.
Especially considering the current climate.
When the league in October inked a nine-year, $24 billion rights deal with ESPN/ABC and TNT that begins in the 2016-17 season, everything changed about the economic landscape that lies ahead. And with the notion that under-the-radar players might be signed to contracts that could be seen as bargains later because of the soaring salary cap, that means this offseason is even more important than most.
So for all the focus on the big-name stars in the forthcoming free agency season — Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Kevin Love and the like — there is a lesser-known crop of dynamic talents who are being coveted and analyzed by league executives who may be looking to take them to the next level.
As we see it, the following players are the prime candidates who fit that bill:
Right about the time it seemed as if NBA Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard might not be long for the San Antonio Spurs, the restricted-free-agent-to-be had this to say about his future down by the Riverwalk.
"I don't think I'm going anywhere," he told USA TODAY Sports in November after failing to reach an agreement on an extension with the Spurs. "I want to finish out with one team like a lot of great players have done, to stay with one organization their whole career and just be loyal to that. You never know. We'll see what happens next summer, but I'm pretty sure I'll be in a Spurs jersey for my whole life."
The "you never know" part remains true, of course, meaning Leonard could still decide he doesn't like the direction the Spurs are going and find a way out of town. There are multiple nightmare scenarios for San Antonio, among them the notion that he could sign the qualifying offer for next season (thereby becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2016) or perhaps land a Chandler Parsons-esque offer sheet elsewhere that could wreak havoc on the Spurs' long-term plans (the Houston Rockets let Parsons go in restricted free agency last summer when the Dallas Mavericks gave him a three year, $46 million deal with a player option in the third season).
San Antonio didn't give Leonard the maximum-salary deal he wanted before the Oct. 31 deadline because they wanted to keep maximum flexibility for 2015 free agency. Because Leonard's salary cap hold on that kind of extension could have served as an obstacle to landing other top-tier free agents to put around him (with Marc Gasol believed to be atop that list), they took the calculated risk of letting his situation remain unresolved.
Three months later, it's clear that Leonard has every right to ask for that max deal without an ounce of shame. Not only is he on a career-high pace in points (15.3 per game), rebounds (7.5), assists (2.5), and steals (two) in the 24 games in which he wasn't dealing with injuries, but the Spurs lost nine of 17 games without him this season when he was.
Goran Dragic, the 28-year-old Phoenix Suns point guard, is no youngster, as he's in his seventh NBA season and has long since established himself as a formidable talent in the NBA. But these past two seasons have elevated his status, and Dragic — who signed a four-year deal worth about $34 million in 2012 and is expected to opt out of the final year this summer — now finds himself on the verge of a payday the likes of which he has never known.
The Houston Rockets, where he had his first breakout season, would love to bring the Slovenian star back for a second go-round, and Rockets general manager Daryl Morey has tried to no avail to land Dragic via trade this season.
The Lakers are also known to be interested in pairing Dragic with Kobe Bryant, but the list of suitors is expected to be long. While Dragic's production has dipped this season (his scoring dropped from a career-high 20.3 points per game to 16.9; assists are down from 5.9 to 4.1 per game), it's no secret as to why.
The Suns' decision to add point guard Isaiah Thomas via free agency last summer and also re-sign Eric Bledsoe made this formula challenging, with Dragic himself pointing out during the Suns' subpar start that "there's only one ball and we're all point guards." Phoenix (24-18) has figured it out since then, winning 12 of their last 16 games and holding onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Still, there's a strong hope from the many Dragic fans throughout the league that he wants to play for a team in which he has the lead-guard duties all to himself.
Detroit Pistons forward-center Greg Monroe planned for unrestricted free agency so he could choose his next team, and that remains the case.
Whether Monroe gets a true max or not, he's going to receive a lucrative deal, and the Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are among the possible suitors.
He's averaging 14.9 points and 9.7 rebounds and his per-36 minute statistics are 18.2 points and 11.8 rebounds. He also is playing better, along with his whole team, since the Pistons released Josh Smith. Monroe took a calculated risk by signing the qualifying offer, and it's working for him.
Speaking of gambling on one's self, Chicago Bulls shooting guard Jimmy Butler pushed his chips all in after he and the Bulls failed to reach an extension. He said at the start of the season he was going to "bet on myself." It's the jackpot for Butler, who has made dramatic improvement this season.
A strong perimeter defender, Butler has blossomed into the Bulls' best offensive player and an All-Star, averaging 20.6 points. Teams are going to offer a max deal (hello, Los Angeles Lakers), and the Bulls would be hard-pressed not to match.
In the summer of 2013, forward Paul Millsap signed a two-year deal with that Hawks that was both player- and team-friendly.
Though the Hawks were interested in a longer deal (Millsap wanted chance to re-up for one more big deal at age 30), neither side was locked in long term if it didn't work out.
Under Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer, Millsap and the Hawks are a perfect fit, and they will try to extend the partnership, especially with Atlanta looking at a deep postseason run. They deserve each other for at least two more seasons.
OTHERS TO WATCH
Reggie Jackson: The Oklahoma City Thunder guard spoke with USA TODAY Sports about his complicated situation. The Thunder added Dion Waiters in a trade recently and already have Russell Westbrook in place, so it's unclear whether super-sub Jackson still has a major role in the future of the team. The two sides couldn't reach an extension agreement, so Jackson becomes a free agent this offseason.
Draymond Green: The Golden State Warriors forward will be one of the most fascinating restricted free agents. A second-round pick, Green has developed into a necessary and versatile piece of the Warriors' puzzle. All indications point to the Warriors matching even if it means going into the luxury tax at a salary that's a bit higher than they expected.
Tobias Harris: The Orlando Magic forward is interested to see what deals are out there (and there will be a quality offer sheet for him), but the Magic can match the offer for the restricted free agent. Will signing the qualifying offer so he can be an unrestricted free agent in 2016 be an option for Harris?
Lou Williams: The veteran guard is the top reserve for the Toronto Raptors and a Sixth Man of the Year candidate — and he's in the final year of his deal. Toronto's goal last offseason was to retain its free agents and it's worth watching if that will be the same philosophy and if they can re-sign Williams.
Brandon Knight: The Milwaukee Bucks guard is a restricted free agent, and the Bucks are interested in keeping him at an fair price, even if he isn't a point guard in mold that his coach Jason Kidd was.
Enes Kanter: Centers are in in demand, and Kanter, who is on the verge of being a double-double player in points and rebounds for the Utah Jazz, will draw considerable interest. He will be a restricted free agent, and the Jazz had no aversion to matching Gordon Hayward's offer from Charlotte last summer.
Omer Asik: It's turning out to be a market for teams looking for decent big men. If a team needs a big man who can rebound, especially on the offensive end, the New Orleans Pelicans center will be available.
Kevin Seraphin: In a deep frontcourt, the Washington Wizards center is producing in limited minutes and his per-36 minute statistics are impressive enough to warrant serious consideration from teams looking for an improving big man.