Five reasons why American Pharoah will and won't win Triple Crown

While only 11 horses in history have completed racing's elusive Triple Crown, 13 horses since Affirmed last accomplished the feat in 1978 have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness only to lose in the Belmont Stakes.

American Pharoah is through the first of the three races, meaning he'll be this year's applicant for history, beginning with the Preakness on May 16 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.

So what are his chances?

Here are five reasons why American Pharoah will win the Triple Crown — and five reasons why he won't:

Why he will win

1. He's the best horse of a strong generation, as established by his one-length victory over ultra-consistent Firing Line, with American Pharoah's previously unbeaten stablemate Dortmund third, in the Kentucky Derby.

2. He has the perfect running style: Fast but content to sit behind horses as needed with the speed to stay out of trouble.

3. He's still lightly raced, with three starts at 2 and only two Derby preps. What might have seemed a detriment going into the Derby is now a positive because he's a fresh horse.

4. The Derby was the first time he was challenged and had to work to win. He will only improve off that effort — which is scary.

5. The racing gods owe Bob Baffert after his three Belmont losses with the Triple Crown on the line (Silver Charm, 1997; Real Quiet, 1998 by a nose; War Emblem, 2002). That's the most in history.

Why he won't win

1. Forget the Belmont. The Kentucky Derby winner is no sure thing to win the Preakness, with Firing Line and Dortmund good enough to win the Triple Crown's middle leg — especially if they draw outside American Pharoah and gain the tactical advantage of being able to pay off him.

2. His final quarter-mile time in the Derby was a crawling 26.57 seconds. While he's an outstanding horse, he's not Seattle Slew. The relatively soft early pace of the Derby — a scenario aided by speedy Florida Derby winner Materiality breaking slowly — made it tough on closers. The Preakness will be another story. He wasn't particularly bred to go 1¼ miles, let alone the Belmont's 1½ miles.

3. Trainer Todd Pletcher will win the Belmont with Materiality (who did well to finish sixth in the Derby after being completely taken out of his up-close game by the poor start) or Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem. Neither will run in the Preakness and will be a fresh hors. The rigors of the Triple Crown often don't show until turning for home in the Belmont — when horses already have run the Derby distance and have another quarter-mile to go. The last Belmont winner to compete in the Derby and Preakness was Afleet Alex in 2005.

4. The increasing popularity of competing in Triple Crown races stacks the deck against any horse pulling off the hat trick. Affirmed faced a total of 20horses in the series in 1978. American Pharoah faced 17 rivals in the Derby alone Saturday.

5. If Spectacular Bid — a truly great horse — couldn't get it done in 1979, don't expect any horse to secure American horse racing's most coveted sweep. Trainer D.Wayne Lukas, who owns a record 14 victories in Triple Crown races, long has said the best recipe for a Triple Crown is a truly great horse in a weak year. American Pharoah might prove to be a truly great horse, but this is not a weak year.

Jennie Rees writes for the Louisville (Ky.) Courier-Journal.