Questions raised by the fourth College Football Playoff ranking
Corrections and clarifications: A previous version of this story referred to Michigan as Michigan State in the item about Florida's ranking.
Again, we begin with this important public service announcement: These rankings are meaningless. Or at least, so we’re told by the College Football Playoff selection committee. Until the final Top 25 is unveiled Dec. 6, these are just exercises for fun and profit.
But each time the selection committee releases a new set of rankings — and when chairman Jeff Long provides subsequent explanations — it reveals more of how the members are thinking, what they’re valuing, the factors they consider important.
It inevitably raises more questions, which we’ll attempt to answer.
What does the selection committee think of Baker Mayfield?
They like him a lot, apparently, and they’ve got reason. Oklahoma’s junior quarterback has been the catalyst in the Sooners’ surge during the second half of the season. Which is why their surge up the rankings, from No. 7 last week to No. 3 now, probably shouldn’t have surprised as much as it did.
Yeah, Oklahoma escaped TCU, just barely, when Sooners defensive back Steven Parker batted down a two-point conversion with 51 seconds left. But the committee didn’t so much focus on the 30-29 final score — other than that Oklahoma did, in fact, win — but rather the fairly comfortable situation the Sooners were in at halftime, up 23-7.
Clemson, Alabama joined by Oklahoma and Iowa in Playoff top four
The reason that’s more important than TCU’s 16-point fourth quarter and the near-miss of an upset — or the fact the Horned Frogs played without all-star quarterback Trevone Boykin and receiver Josh Doctson — is that Mayfield didn’t play in the second half. He’d taken a hard hit to the helmet in the second quarter (TCU linebacker Ty Summers was ejected for targeting. Mayfield passed initial concussion tests, but after further evaluation by Oklahoma’s medical staff at halftime, he admitted to having a headache and they pulled him from the game).
That clearly changed the complexion of the game. Even so, Oklahoma led 30-13 after three quarters.
Selection committee chairman Jeff Long said the Sooners “were solidly in control of that game in the committee’s view” when Mayfield left. “… They held on to win that game against a ranked opponent, but certainly we evaluate that game based on the quarterback being out in the second half, and we believe that had an impact.”
Can Baylor get back into it?
The popular notion has been that because of a pillowy soft non-conference schedule, the Bears needed to go undefeated to reach the Playoff — so when they lost last week at home to Oklahoma, they were finished. But after beating Oklahoma State, Baylor moved up from No. 10 to No. 7 and is positioned to move into the top four with a little help.
The selection committee clearly valued the road win against the Cowboys, and how it happened; down to their third-team quarterback after Jarrett Stidham was hurt, the Bears put together a solid victory. It’s also possible that the committee gained some respect for Baylor even in the Nov. 14 loss to Oklahoma. It’s worth noting they dropped only from No. 6 to No. 10 after that.
Regardless, sitting at No. 7 with games left against No. 19 TCU and Texas, the Bears have two more opportunities to impress the committee. If they win out, they’ll need help to get into the top four, but not a whole lot of it. An Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State and a Notre Dame loss to Stanford might be all it would take to put the Bears into the Playoff. Any more chaos — weirdness in the Big Ten, for example, an Alabama loss, Clemson getting upset, whatever — would just be icing.
As long as we’re on that subject, both No. 8 Ohio State (even after that dismal performance) and No. 9 Stanford (even with two losses) are in position to move back into the picture, as well, with similar amounts of chaos.
Is the committee consistent in its treatment of unimpressive wins?
At least in the last two weeks, yeah, it has been. But this question could be rephrased as: Did the committee treat Florida like it did TCU? And the answer was: Yes.
When TCU struggled to beat lowly Kansas on Nov. 14,, the Frogs dropped from No. 15 to No. 18 in the ensuring ranking. If nothing else, it seemed to show the committee really wasn’t paying much attention to where the teams had been ranked the previous week. More likely, it showed the committee was paying attention to how teams were playing — yeah, the eye test.
Notre Dame might need luck and more to make College Football Playoff
One-loss Florida, meanwhile, was ranked No. 8 last week. But after needing overtime at home to escape Florida Atlantic (which dropped to 2-9), the Gators dropped to No. 12 — behind two-loss teams Stanford and Michigan. It’s clear the committee has not been impressed. It’s very possible the Gators could beat Florida State, win the SEC championship (beating Alabama) — understand, we’re not saying it’s probable, only that it’s possible — and still conceivably get left out of the Playoff field.
Back to TCU: It’s worth noting that after losing to Oklahoma, the Frogs dropped this week only to No. 19.
Is Alabama getting credit for beating all those teams that are no longer ranked?
The Crimson Tide appears firmly entrenched at No. 2 behind Clemson. That’s not surprising, given the committee’s obvious affection from the very first ranking (when Alabama was ranked No. 4 on Nov. 3). But even as Alabama has kept winning, its résumé has changed. The Tide beat Georgia and LSU when those teams were ranked in the top 10 of various polls. Neither is ranked now. Neither is Wisconsin, which Bama beat in the season opener.
The only currently ranked opponent Alabama has beaten is No. 21 Mississippi State.
College Football Playoff Ranking
“Their résumé, their strength of schedule, depending on how you look at it, is in the top 10 for sure,” said Long, responding to a question about the Tide’s lack of top 25 victories. “That’s a strong schedule, and … they’ve performed very well since that loss against Ole Miss.”
Translation: Yes, we’re giving the Tide credit for beating all those teams that turned out to be not nearly as good as their early rankings. But we think Alabama is very good. (We accept this analysis, by the way.)
As an aside: The loss to No. 18 Ole Miss is becoming a semi-positive blemish, because the Rebels’ topsy-turvy ride through the schedule is currently on the upswing. With a win against Mississippi State on Saturday in the Egg Bowl, they would finish 9-3, making Bama’s home loss back in September look a little better.
Of course if that happened, Mississippi State might drop from the rankings.
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