U.S. vs. Japan Women's World Cup final: Our experts weigh in
VANCOUVER — USA TODAY Sports has had three staffers in Canada for the entire Women's World Cup. Going into Sunday's final between the U.S. and Japan (7 p.m., ET, FOX), here are their takes on who will win and why:
NANCY ARMOUR
It's the Americans who have the most incentive to win. Yes, they got a little bit of payback by beating Japan for the Olympic gold medal in 2012. But in soccer, it's the World Cup title that determines greatness, and Japan took what the Americans thought was theirs in 2011.
That loss – the U.S. blew two leads, and then lost on penalty kicks – haunts the U.S. to this day, and there's no way the team comes up short again Sunday.
Plus, the Americans are coming into the title game on a roll. They didn't look particularly impressive in the first four games, eking out wins with a stodgy, defensive-minded lineup. But Jill Ellis unleashed Carli Lloyd against China, and her attack-oriented lineup against Germany resulted in the kind of fast-paced, dominant performance everyone has been expecting since the tournament began.
Those two games also gave the Americans the confidence that, if they play like that, there's no one in the world who can stop them.
Japan, meanwhile, has slipped after starting the tournament strong. It needed a questionable penalty to get past Australia in the quarterfinals. It was outplayed by England in the semifinals and was gifted a spot in the final by Laura Bassett's horrific own goal. Even Japanese coach Norio Sasaki acknowledged his team would need to step up its game against the U.S.
Prediction: Japan is still the most technically gifted team in the world, and the Nadeshiko's patience and opportunism will always make them dangerous. But the U.S. has too much incentive, and is playing too well, to leave empty-handed again. The U.S. wins 2-0.
LAKEN LITMAN
Carli Lloyd being given the freedom to roam and attack has been the turning point for this team. With her sitting slightly in front of Morgan Brian and Lauren Holiday in the semifinal, Lloyd was more involved offensively, and it paid dividends as she helped control the middle of the field, feed Alex Morgan the ball up top and be in position for the assist on Kelley O'Hara's second-half goal that sealed the U.S. win.
Additionally, if Ellis keeps her most skilled players in Megan Rapinoe and Tobin Heath out on the flanks, it could continue to open up the field and lock down the wings. Germany was so concerned with those two players, that it opened up the midfield. Japan has impeccable ball movement and will try to knock the U.S. off balance, but this tactic could still work for the U.S. in the final.
Ellis hasn't changed her back four once this whole tournament and definitely isn't going to start now. The line comprised of Meghan Klingenberg, Becky Sauerbrunn, Julie Johnston and Ali Krieger has provided a wall, preventing intruders from getting anywhere near Hope Solo, who has been mostly a spectator. The back line is the heart of this team. It's able to do everything from tracking down forwards and winning balls back to pressuring high up the field and getting involved in the attack. Johnston for example has had several scoring opportunities and had the assist on Lloyd's game-winning goal against China.
Japan might be one of the more skillful, confident and patient teams the U.S. has faced, but momentum swings in the Americans' favor, coming off back-to-back emotional games, plus the horrid feeling of losing to Japan in 2011.
Prediction: There will be drama, but the United States wins 2-0.
MARTIN ROGERS
Some will consider confidence and momentum to be the Americans' biggest weapon heading into the final. I think it is their biggest potential weakness.
Jill Ellis' side has discovered its swagger, the by-product of a campaign that finally hit top gear after four sub-standard performances and saw its finest display of the tournament in a defeat of world No.1 Germany in the semifinal.
The vibe around the United States is one of total belief, which will only reinforce its commitment to an attacking game. Japan won't mind that, not one little bit. The Japanese counter-attack quicker, more fluidly and with greater coherence than any other team in women's soccer, and their coach, Norio Sasaki, has long believed the U.S., is susceptible to sharp breakaways.
Japan has arguably the best player in the final with the uber-creative Aya Miyama, while the U.S. certainly has greater depth.
The U.S. defense has been by far the best in the tournament, with Becky Sauerbrunn and Julie Johnston anchoring the heart of it with fine effect. However, they have not yet met a team capable of moving and spreading the ball this quickly, even against Germany.
There will be periods of the game when the U.S. certainly doesn't have things to its liking. However, you have to finish your chances and in that regard, Alex Morgan holds the key to the contest.
The attack-minded formations used against China and Germany didn't allow Morgan as much freedom, flexibility, or time on the ball – those have all been sacrificed to give more space to Carli Lloyd.
Yet Morgan has the right mix of footwork and firepower to cause the Japan backline genuine trouble and, back to full fitness, is as dangerous as any attacker. She will likely benefit from chances created by Lloyd's more mobile role and from Megan Rapinoe's surges down the left flank. If she converts, the U.S. should prevail.
Prediction: United States 2, Japan 1 (in extra time).
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