Long shots take center stage in 2016 GOP race
WASHINGTON — The number of Republicans officially running for president is set to double this week, giving a party starved for a White House victory more choices.
Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina have announcements planned Monday, and Mike Huckabee is set to follow suit on Tuesday. There is little mystery about what they will say — even if none are yet confirming they intend to seek the 2016 GOP nomination.
They may be considered long shots, but regardless of whether they ever win a delegate, they each serve a purpose in a field that could grow to as many as 20 people if everyone who is eyeing the race jumps in.
"The wide open nature of this race and the debates are going to provide all the candidates an opportunity to influence," said Amy Walter, national editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. "These are folks who can force the front-runners to either take positions they don't want to take or answer questions they may not want to answer."
Presidential campaigns are a marathon, with the winner built for the long haul. That typically means someone with a message that appeals to a cross-section of voters and the resources to drive it home.
Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide
Media attention and early public opinion polls show Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio in a top tier of GOP contenders. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz — who with Rubio are so far the only Republicans officially in the race — get buzz as well.
Bush, a former Florida governor, reportedly told donors he has set a record for fundraising. Super PACs supporting Cruz say they've already banked $31 million to support the Texas senator. Supporters of at least 11 candidates — including Carson, Fiorina and Huckabee — have formed committees to help them raise unlimited amounts of cash for 2016.
Carson, a renowned neurosurgeon, built a following after he criticized President Obama in 2013 at the National Prayer Breakfast — with Obama sitting just a few feet away. Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO and unsuccessful 2010 Senate candidate, has garnered headlines for directly challenging Hillary Clinton's record. Both have gotten positive reviews at big candidate forums.
But it's Huckabee, winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, who can more easily influence the 2016 debate. As a former Arkansas governor and previous presidential candidate, Huckabee has experience and ties to GOP constituencies that Carson and Fiorina do not.
Pollster Bob Wickers said in a recent memo that Huckabee is "extremely well-positioned to launch a winning campaign" based on polls showing him as someone Republicans would consider voting for and his favorable ratings. Wickers argues Huckabee also isn't a one-note candidate, citing his appeal with senior citizens and low-to-middle-income voters.
In 2008, Huckabee won eight states but dropped out because he couldn't raise enough money to compete with eventual nominee John McCain or a free-spending Mitt Romney. Evangelical voters also have more choices this time around — including Cruz, who kicked off his campaign at Liberty University, the world's largest Christian university, and Walker, who spent his youth in Iowa and is a preacher's son.
"The environment in 2016 is different than in 2008," said Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader and state chairman in Iowa of Huckabee's 2008 campaign.
He said Huckabee can no longer claim himself as the outsider, as Carson and Fiorina can. As a known quantity in Iowa, he's not the long shot people think.
"There's always the tendency to want the new car smell," Vander Plaats said, before likening the GOP primary fight to a job opening with internal and external candidates.
"Internal candidates have an advantage because you know them and you know their warts," he said. "It's way better to be known than not to be known."
Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union (ACU), said the Republican Party is breaking from its tradition of picking a nominee who is the next person in line, like it did with McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012.
He is also surprised that no one who has openly flirted with a 2016 race has yet to rule it out. There are even potential candidates, such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who weren't on the radar in February when the ACU hosted the annual Conservative Political Action Conference.
"The process is frightening insiders but it will make the nominee better," Schlapp said. "This is like going to Baskin-Robbins … your flavor is going to be there."
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