First Take: Sorry, Santorum. It's no longer next-guy-in-line
WASHINGTON — Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum announced his bid for the Republican presidential nomination Wednesday with a reminder that, the last time around, he finished as the runner-up to the nominee.
In five of the past six open nomination battles in the GOP, being the next-guy-in-line has been a recipe for winning the party's bid.
But probably not this time.
In 2016, Republicans' success in building a deep bench of officeholders in the Senate and statehouses, plus a belief that history is on the GOP's side, has created the party's most muscular presidential field since the modern nomination process began.
The 2012 GOP field was big, but the 2016 field is bigger — indeed, big enough to strain the limits of the debate stage — and includes more contenders who could be seen as credible nominees.
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In that race, the only current officeholders in the mix were two House members who generally were seen as being on the fringe — Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Ron Paul of Texas — plus Texas Gov. Rick Perry. The Lone Star State governor was taken seriously but flamed out with a performance in a debate forever immortalized by a single word. ("Oops.")
This time, three sitting senators already have announced their campaigns — Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida — and a fourth, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, is poised to follow Monday. They could be joined be as many as four incumbent governors (Chris Christie of New Jersey, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin).
And that list doesn't even mention the candidate with the broadest name recognition and the strongest fundraising so far, former Florida governor Jeb Bush.
While there are long shots and wild cards in the 2016 field — will Donald Trump really run this time? — it includes candidates with more current electoral experience and established political bases than those in 2012. Then, even such unlikely nominees as pizza executive Herman Cain took a turn at the top of national polls.
Why are so many Republicans jumping in the race?
The size of the field reflects a judgment that, after President Obama's two terms, Republicans have a good chance of winning back the White House in 2016. Only once since World War II has either party managed to hold the presidency for three elections in a row. Historically speaking, the odds of defeating likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton are better than they were of denying Obama a second term.
"The reason there's a lot of people running on our side is we all think we can beat Hillary," Graham told USA TODAY's Capital Download this month.
The strength of the field reflects the success of the GOP in electing candidates to offices that provide a potential pathway to the White House. Republicans not only won control of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014 but with last year's elections now hold 31 of the nation's 50 governorships. That has created a fresh crew of candidates: Three of the senators and three of the governors who are on the list of likely Republican presidential contenders were first elected to those jobs over the past six years.
There are complications from the big field. Limiting participation in the nationally televised debates even to the top 10, as measured in national polls, is likely to cut out such officeholders as Graham and Jindal. At the moment, neither Santorum nor former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a serious competitor in 2008, would meet the threshold. Neither would the only woman in the field, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.
It also could mean a longer battle for the nomination. Some candidates are calculating whether to downplay opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire to focus on big-state primaries later in the calendar. They could have the standing and financial backing to keep the competition going.
That could mean more attacks on the eventual nominee by competitors in the party. Still, many Republicans point to the Democratic contest between Obama and Clinton in 2008 as a case study in how a fierce primary battle can energize supporters and build organizations in states important in the general election.
Hard-fought nomination contests can get candidates ready for the battle in the fall.
"Look at what happened in the first debate between Obama and Romney" in 2012, says former Republican national chairman Michael Steele. After participating in 19 debates in the Republican primaries, "Romney was sharp and Obama was rusty."
