Playoff Projection: A jumble beyond the No. 2 seed
Each week that the College Football Playoff selection committee meets to rank what it sees as the top 25 teams in the FBS, there are certain tiers or groupings of teams that merit more debate and discussion than others.
This week the debate might center on the second half of the playoff field, the No. 3 and 4 seeds, which seem to have a small pool of candidates with valid claims to one of those spots.
Entering the final week of play before conference championship weekend, The Football Four Playoff Projection panel's voting patterns indicate that its members see a tiered structure among the top contenders.
"The first two slots are reserved. If Clemson and Alabama win out, they're in," said panelist George Schroeder of USA TODAY Sports. "But Ohio State's loss increases the spots up for grabs from one to two."
Clemson and Alabama are the projected top two seeds for the second week in a row, but the panel also had widespread agreement on the two remaining seeds.
Eleven out of 12 panelists voting this week had Clemson at No. 1 and Alabama at No. 2, and nearly half of the group also had Iowa at No. 3 and Oklahoma at No. 4. The Sooners were actually chosen as the No. 4 seed by 10 of 12 panelists voting this week, allowing them to edge Michigan State. Less 2% of the vote kept Michigan State out of the field, and it missed the No. 3 seed by only 5% of the vote.
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Notre Dame, with two No. 3 seed mentions, was the only other team considered, making this the smallest pool of teams receiving votes all season.
Oklahoma and Notre Dame play their final regular games Saturday on the road against teams that figured to be in the top 10 of the Playoff selection committee's next ranking, which will be announced at 7 ET tonight on ESPN.
"The 'real' committee might end up having their hands full if certain things fall in different directions," said panelist and former FBS athletic director Jim Livengood.
How the College Football Playoff committee actually ranks teams
The Playoff Projection panel is based on the College Football Playoff selection committee's model and includes Schroeder, Livengood, former FBS coaches Tommy Bowden, Rich Brooks and Jim Grobe, former FBS athletic director Bill Byrne, Michigan State men's basketball coach and football aficionado Tom Izzo, WWE Hall of Fame announcer Jim Ross and USA TODAY Sports college sports staff members Nicole Auerbach, Paul Myerberg, Eddie Timanus, Daniel Uthman and Dan Wolken.
Each panelist enters a four-team ballot, with four points awarded for a No. 1 vote, three for a No. 2, two for a No. 3 and one for a No. 4. The projection is purely a mock selection with no bearing on the Playoff selection committee's decisions.
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