Analysis: Who will make NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup?
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — The first off-week on NASCAR's marathon Sprint Cup Series calendar comes after the season is only one-sixth complete.
But the regular season — the first 26 races — is nearly a quarter of the way through already. With Denny Hamlin's victory Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, we now know five of the 16 drivers who will be in NASCAR's 10-week Chase for the Sprint Cup playoff this fall.
Hamlin will be joined by Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Jimmie Johnson. But how about the rest?
While the field will largely be determined by race winners, here's a look at the rest of the top 16 in the point standings so far — along with their chances of staying there, rated on a scale of one to four tires.
Driver: Martin Truex Jr.
Points position: Third
Chase chances: Four tires
Analysis: Truex has opened with six straight top-10 finishes — a career-long streak at any point in the season. He'll have enough points to make the Chase, but he'll probably win a race before then.
Driver: Kasey Kahne
Points position: Fifth
Chase chances: Four tires
Analysis: Kahne drives for Hendrick Motorsports, and Hendrick has put all four drivers in the Chase for three consecutive years. There's no reason that shouldn't happen again this season.
Driver: Ryan Newman
Points position: Sixth
Chase chances: Four tires
Analysis: Newman has looked just as consistent as last season — when he made the four-driver championship race — if not more so. Even if he doesn't win, there should be a spot for him on points.
Driver: Paul Menard
Points position: Seventh
Chase chances: Two tires
Analysis: Every year, Menard seems to have a fast start and a top-10 points position for the first month or so. But when the Chase approaches, he can't quite make the cut. Can he find enough consistency this time around?
PHOTOS: USA TODAY Sports' 2015 Chase predictions
Driver: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Points position: Ninth
Chase chances: Four tires
Analysis: Earnhardt has been running well and seems to be just fine with new crew chief Greg Ives. He'll win a race sooner than later to lock himself into the Chase.
Driver: Aric Almirola
Points position: 10th
Chase chances: Two tires
Analysis: Almirola has four top-15 finishes this year, which is certainly respectable — but he's the only driver in the top 17 without a top-10 finish. If that continues to be the case, making the Chase without a win seems quite unlikely.
Driver: Matt Kenseth
Points position: 12th
Chase chances: Four tires
Analysis: Kenseth is always so consistent — he made last year's Chase on points. But his No. 20 car has looked better this season (he had a shot to win at Auto Club Speedway), so his first win since 2013 could come soon.
Driver: David Ragan
Points position: 13th
Chase chances: Two tires
Analysis: Ragan needs to win while he's still substituting for the injured Kyle Busch at Joe Gibbs Racing. If his stay there ends without a victory, his hopes are all but gone.
Driver: Casey Mears
Points position: 14th
Chase chances: One tire
Analysis: Germain Racing seems to keep taking positive steps and Mears' average finish has improved for six consecutive years. That said, the team isn't likely to win a race and the No. 13 car doesn't post the finishes that would aid its cause with points racing.
Driver: Jamie McMurray
Points position: 15th
Chase chances: Three tires
Analysis: Everyone just keeps waiting for the Chip Ganassi Racing cars to break through. McMurray has shown speed this season, and all he needs is one victory to put him into his first career Chase.
Driver: Danica Patrick
Points position: 16th
Chase chances: One tire
Analysis: A nice seventh-place run at Martinsville aside, Patrick is a longshot to win a race (she's never finished in the top five) and there's no indication she could points-race her way into a Chase spot (Martinsville was her only top-15 of the season so far).
Follow Gluck on Twitter @jeff_gluck
PHOTOS: 2015 Sprint Cup race winners
