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Who are the playoff contenders, pretenders in the AFC?

Lorenzo Reyes
USA TODAY
San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) yells down the line in front of running back Branden Oliver (43) during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Qualcomm Stadium.

One division could stir up the entire AFC playoff picture.

The AFC North teams — Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers — each have seven wins, and all are at least three games above .500, the first time in NFL history such a feat has occurred in one division.

The rest of the conference can only hope upcoming intradivisional matchups will bring some of the North heavyweights back to the pack, but it's safe to expect the quartet to be well-represented in the postseason.

As Week 13 begins, 11 of the 16 AFC teams have a winning record, but only six will play into January. Time to assess who the legitimate powers are and which teams might be kidding themselves with Super Bowl aspirations.

Contenders

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New England Patriots (9-2): In the midst of a seven-game winning streak where they're beating opponents by an average of 20 points, the Patriots look like a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Tom Brady has played himself into the MVP race, and the New England defense is creating new matchup problems this year thanks to the arrival of veteran cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

Denver Broncos (8-3): Despite some shaky performances recently, the Broncos are still a dangerous team. The most concerning issue is an offensive line that has failed to open running lanes and has been inconsistent while trying to protect quarterback Peyton Manning. Though it once seemed Denver might cruise to the AFC West title, the Broncos suddenly have a huge game on the road Sunday night against the second-place Chiefs. Still, barring an injury to Manning, hard to believe Denver won't be wild-card entry at minimum.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1): The most important game of their season may turn out to be one they didn't even win. In the log-jammed AFC North, the Bengals' Week 6 tie against the Carolina Panthers may give them just enough of an edge in the standings. Still, Cincinnati must still navigate the AFC's fourth-toughest remaining schedule (.564 winning percentage), which includes two games against the Steelers, one against the Broncos and one against the Browns (7-4).

Indianapolis Colts (7-4): The Colts have struggled against topflight competition this season. Their four losses have been against the Broncos, Eagles, Steelers and Patriots. If Indy is to make a deep playoff run, that needs to change. But based on the rest of their schedule, the Colts are a safe bet to win their division, as they face the AFC's fifth-weakest remaining schedule (.455 winning percentage) and play in the soft AFC South.

Baltimore Ravens (7-4): The Ravens are built like a playoff team — they run the ball well (132.4 yards per game, sixth-best in the NFL) and have the league's fifth-stingiest defense (18.9 points per game). The biggest concern for Baltimore's playoff hopes is that the Ravens have the worst division record (2-3) in the AFC North. But with only one division game remaining — Week 17 against the Browns — and a favorable schedule, the Ravens have a good chance to at least earn a wild card spot while Cleveland, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh duke it out.

Miami Dolphins (6-5): They are coming off a tough road loss to the Broncos, a game Miami probably should have won. But the Dolphins own the AFC's fourth-easiest remaining schedule (.436 winning percentage), including two games against the spiraling Jets (2-9). More importantly, Miami's defense gives the team a suffocating unit that should excel late in the season.

Pretenders

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4): Things can change so quickly in the NFL. Last week, the Chiefs were riding a five-game winning streak entering their date with the previously winless Raiders and seemed poised to sit alone atop the AFC West standings. But they lost at Oakland, a defeat that may alter their outlook the rest of the way. The Chiefs face the AFC's third-toughest remaining schedule (.582 winning percentage), so their path back to the playoffs could be too much to overcome.

San Diego Chargers (7-4): They currently hold the second wild-card berth. But it's going to be tough for San Diego to hold onto the conference's sixth seed. The Bolts face a brutal schedule (.691 winning percentage) down the stretch, with their final five games against the Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4): Consistency has been an issue for this team in recent years, and the Steelers only managed to split their last two games against the Jets and Titans, who have two wins apiece. Pittsburgh should have little trouble gearing up for its two remaining games against the division-leading Bengals. But will they stumble against the Falcons and Saints (both 4-7), who are vying for the NFC South crown? And with LeGarrette Blount gone, any injury to workhorse back Le'Veon Bell would likely be devastating.

Cleveland Browns (7-4): Three of their remaining five games are on the road, and the two home dates will be tough (Colts, Bengals). The up-and-down Browns got a nice boost Sunday with Josh Gordon contributing immediately following his 10-game suspension. But the injuries to starting defenders like Phil Taylor, Karlos Dansby and Tashaun Gipson may be too much to overcome.

Buffalo Bills (6-5): Currently the 11th seed in the AFC, the Bills have several teams to leapfrog, and their 3-5 conference record could prove a killer. But with upcoming games against the Broncos, Packers and Patriots, it's probably more likely the Bills — they last reached postseason in 1999 — will be eliminated by their record rather than by tiebreakers that are not lining up in their favor.

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Follow Lorenzo Reyes on Twitter @Lorenzo_G_Reyes

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