NL wild card capsule: Cubs vs. Pirates
A capsule look at Wednesday night's National League wild-card game pitting the Chicago Cubs against the Pittsburgh Pirates:
Time/TV: 8:08 p.m., TBS
Matchup: Jake Arrieta (22-6, 1.77 ERA) vs. Gerrit Cole (19-8, 2.60 ERA)
This season: The Cubs won the season series 11-8, going 6-4 at Pittsburgh's PNC Park.
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Arrieta vs. the Pirates: The Cubs' Cy Young Award candidate was nails against just about everybody this season and especially the Pirates, who batted just .151 with a .368 OPS against him. In five starts vs. Pittsburgh, Arrieta had a 3-1 record and an 0.75 ERA, allowing 18 hits in 36 innings. At PNC, he had an 0.82 ERA in three starts.
Cole vs. the Cubs: Arrieta's otherworldly numbers may overshadow Cole's, but the Pittsburgh ace made life miserable for the Cubs as well. They batted .225 with a .504 OPS against Cole, who had a 2-1 record with a 2.13 ERA in four starts vs. Chicago, striking out 32 in 25 1/3 innings.
Trending up: In what projects as a classic pitchers' duel, factors such as fielding and baserunning could make a huge difference. The Cubs, who improved defensively when they moved rookie Addison Russell from second to shortstop, ranked third in the National League in Defensive Runs Saved (17.4) and Ultimate Zone Rating (23.4). The shift-heavy Pirates ranked 13th and 11th, respectively, and they have one of the majors' worst defenders in first baseman Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates had a slight lead in stolen bases – 98-95 – but their success rate of 68.5% percent trailed Chicago's 72%.
Arrieta went 16-1 with an 0.86 ERA in his last 20 starts and posted the lowest second-half ERA (0.75) of any pitcher ever with at least 10 starts. Cole finished strong too, winning four if his final five decisions, but his 3.29 ERA in that spell seems stratospheric compared to Arrieta's. … The Cubs went 46-19 in their last 65 games – the most wins in majors in that stretch – getting a major boost from their rookies, who accounted for 66 homers. That total is tied for the fourth-largest in NL history. … Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle suggested his club will try a small-ball approach against Arrieta, joking that in seeking a way to beat the dominant right-hander, "I put on 15 pounds looking at pie charts the last two days.'' The Pirates do have speed toward the top of the lineup in their outstanding trio of outfielders, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco, who combined for 68 stolen bases.
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Trending down: The Pirates had designs on the division title until stumbling to a 3-4 finish and nearly getting caught by the hot Cubs at the end. They finished a game apart. The biggest point of discussion in Pittsburgh ahead of the game is who will start at the corners. Fielding concerns and the offensive approach against Arrieta may determine whether Hurdle starts Alvarez, who led the club with 27 home runs, or opts for the better-fielding Sean Rodriguez at first base. The Pirates could also shift Aramis Ramirez to first and start Josh Harrison at third. Harrison hit .373 with a .940 OPS in his last 28 days, so he's likely to play somewhere.
The Cubs have some lineup decisions of their own to make. Manager Joe Maddon is not averse to experimenting, and with runs likely at a premium, he may tinker with his batting order. Lefty-swinging infielder Tommy La Stella has seen some action recently at third base and could get the call there, with Kris Bryant moving to left field and fellow rookie Kyle Schwarber – who wields a potent left-handed bat – starting in right in place of Jorge Soler.
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Close and late: Mark Melancon, who led the majors with a Pirates-record 51 saves, anchors a stellar bullpen. Pittsburgh relievers registered the NL's best ERA at 2.67 and had the second-most wins (31), behind the Cubs' 37. Tony Watson, who finished second on the team behind Melancon with 77 appearances, was a trustworthy setup man all season, and fireballer Arquimedes Caminero is a fine option when the Pirates need a strikeout. Watson and Antonio Bastardo are the main lefties. The Pirates' 36-17 record in one-run games was the majors' best.
Hector Rondon took over as Chicago's closer in 2014 and improved on most of his key stats this past season, becoming the only Cubs reliever other than Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter ever to save 30 games with an ERA of 1.67 or below. Pedro Strop fashioned a 2.91 ERA as the top setup man, and veteran Fernando Rodney was effective after being acquired from Seattle in late August. Former starter Travis Wood is the top lefty.
In the end: How do you pick against a team that won its last eight games and is starting a pitcher who allowed a total of four earned runs in the last two months of the season? You don't. The Pirates had the second-best record in the majors, but they have the misfortune of landing in a one-game elimination against the hottest team and pitcher in baseball. Not that the Pirates are helpless. This is the third year in a row they host the wild-card game, so many of their players know what to expect in this environment. That's in stark contrast with the youthful Cubs, who start rookies at short and third and don't have a regular infielder older than 26.
If the nerves don't get to the Cubs, though, they look like the probable winners.
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