First forecast: Below average hurricane season likely

Forecasters from Colorado State University predicted a "well below-average" Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, anticipating seven tropical storms will form, of which only three will become hurricanes.

A typical year, based on weather records dating to 1950, has 12 tropical storms, of which seven become hurricanes. A tropical storm has sustained winds of 39 mph; it becomes a hurricane when its winds reach 74 mph.

The forecast was released by meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

"The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high," Klotzbach said in a statement. "Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions."

El Niños, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water, tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, but often spur eastern Pacific hurricanes.

The forecast team predicts that of the three hurricanes, only one will attain "major" hurricane status. A major hurricane is a hurricane with wind speeds of at least 111 mph (Category 3) on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

If the forecast is accurate, it would be the second straight below-average season. The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season had eight named tropical storms, the fewest since 1997. Overall, in the past 20 years, every season but four has recorded above average numbers of named tropical storms.

Gray's team was the first organization to issue seasonal hurricane forecasts back in 1984; this is the team's 32nd forecast. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be issuing its hurricane forecast in May.

The first named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Ana, Bill, Claudette and Danny.