5 perilous issues for Boehner when Congress returns

WASHINGTON — House Speaker John Boehner is no Tom Cruise, but he may be starring in his own version of Mission Impossible this fall, a legislative thriller filled with perilous political predicaments.

When Congress returns from its August recess, the Ohio Republican will have to navigate fiscal cliffs, quash internal rebellions, and maybe even defuse rhetorical grenades lobbed from the presidential campaign trail. Here are five key issues that could have Boehner on the edge of his seat this fall.

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, THE SEQUEL?

Lawmakers return to Washington on Sept. 8, just 23 days before the federal government runs out of money. Democrats are pushing for bipartisan budget negotiations that would lift current spending caps and increase funding for military and domestic programs.

Boehner and his Senate counterpart, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., want to keep the caps and are laying the groundwork to pass a stopgap spending bill that rolls all federal appropriations into one big package. That emergency legislation, however, could get caught up in controversial "riders" — amendments aimed at changing policy on everything from abortion to the Confederate flag to immigration.

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Many Republicans, for example, would like a must-pass spending bill to include provisions blocking Obama's immigration actions and environmental regulations. Others want any omnibus spending bill to include an amendment that strips federal funding from Planned Parenthood. The reproductive health care provider has come under scrutiny after the release of undercover videos in which Planned Parenthood officials discussed providing tissue from aborted fetuses for research.

Such amendments would spark stiff opposition from congressional Democrats and a possible veto from President Obama — and could trigger a government shutdown.

John Feehery, a GOP consultant who served as a spokesman to former House speaker Dennis Hastert, said a big fight over abortion, in particular, could hurt Republicans.

"If Hillary Clinton is struggling, this might be the lifeline she needs to get her mojo back with the Democratic base," Feehery said. "Republicans should tread pretty carefully on this, but that doesn't mean they're going to."

HIGHWAY JAM

Boehner will have a little more time to deal with the looming insolvency of the Highway Trust Fund, which runs dry Oct. 29. He has made it a priority to pass a long-term highway reauthorization, instead of another short-term patch that makes it impossible for states to plan and finance long-term projects.

The Senate has already passed a six-year bill that would send the states about $47 billion in additional federal money for road and bridge construction. The Senate measure is paid for by reducing dividends paid by the Federal Reserve to member banks, selling a portion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, extending various user fees, and improving tax compliance. But GOP leaders in the House would rather pay for a new highway bill by making changes to the tax code for multinational corporations.

If the price tag isn't problematic enough, the Senate legislation also includes a contentious amendment to revive the Export-Import Bank. The 81-year-old bank's charter expired at the end of June, amid a push from Tea Party Republicans who say it smacks of corporate welfare for big American companies. Boehner would face a conservative firestorm if he puts forward a compromise on highway funding that includes the Export-Import Bank provision.

"Highways bills are usually Christmas trees, with lots of goodies for everyone," said Jack Pitney, a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College. "This one is more like a Festivus pole, where everyone is airing their grievances."

IRAN NUKES

Boehner said in July he would do "everything possible" to scuttle the Iran nuclear agreement. His chance will come next month, when the House and Senate take up resolutions blocking the deal.

Brokered by the United States and five other countries, the agreement would keep Iran from producing enough material for an atomic weapon for at least 10 years. Obama has vowed to veto any legislation aimed at killing the deal, so Boehner and McConnell need supermajorities in both chambers to succeed.

Obama has spent part of the August break furiously lobbying Democrats to support the agreement and has only suffered a few defections so far. And McConnell recently conceded Obama is likely to block any attempt to override his veto.

Pitney said the vote could be politically painful both parties.

"Majorities in both chambers will probably oppose the deal, a symbolic setback for the administration," he said. "But it is highly unlikely that opponents can muster supermajorities in both chambers," and conservative commentators will "undoubtedly portray that outcome as another failure of the GOP leadership."

ANOTHER COUP ATTEMPT

Rep. Mark Meadows, a North Carolina conservative, filed a House resolution on July 28 seeking Boehner's removal from the speaker's post. The measure accuses Boehner of consolidating power, making Congress "subservient" to the executive and judicial branches of government, and using his position "to punish members who vote according to their conscience instead of the will of the speaker."

In July, Boehner, who has survived previous conservative rebellions, dismissed Meadow's proposal as "no big deal" and the work of one disgruntled Republican.

"It's not just me," Meadows said in an interview this week. He said he's part of a small band of hard-charging conservatives who want to use the resolution to force Boehner to be more "open and inclusive."

Asked whether he would push for a vote on his resolution when Congress returns, Meadows said he would wait to see how Boehner handles the spending bill and other hot-button issues before determining when and how he might move forward. September will be "critical," Meadows said, because of all the tough legislation Congress will have to grapple with in the space of a few weeks.

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Will Donald Trump add to Boehner's headaches? It's a distinct possibility, especially as the New York real-estate mogul and GOP presidential front-runner continues to make inflammatory statements about Hispanics and tout his controversial immigration proposal.

"As long as Trump is throwing brickbats at Democrats and Obama, that's fine," said Feehery. But if he or other White House hopefuls start aiming barbs at the GOP leadership, that could sting. "Boehner's key is making sure ... Congress doesn't become the punching bag for all the Republican presidential contenders," Feehery said.

Before he left for the August break, Boehner exuded confidence that he'd get through the legislative thicket just fine.

"We're going to glide right through it," the speaker quipped in response to one reporter's question. "I'm looking forward to a very successful fall."

Contributing: Erin Kelly

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