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Persian Gulf

Tampa, Dubai increasingly vulnerable to rare, dangerous 'grey swan' storms

Doyle Rice
USA TODAY

Cities such as Tampa and Dubai will become increasingly vulnerable to rare, global-warming-fueled superstorms in the future, according to a new study.

The city of Tampa's downtown skyline is seen on July 12, 2012. Tampa is one city researchers say is especially vulnerable to "grey swan" storms.

Scientists have dubbed such phenomena "grey swan" storms. The name is meant as a comparison to the term "black swan," which are unpredicted events that have a major impact. Although "grey swans" are highly unlikely, they can still be predicted with some level of confidence, researchers said in the study published Monday.

The study, which looked at tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), said the likelihood of the "grey swans" will increase due to man-made climate change, as warmer seawater will up the chances of the storms forming. Such storms need water of at least 80 degrees to develop.

The research was published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change and was led by Ning Lin of Princeton and Kerry Emmanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a noted hurricane expert.

Researchers used computer models and past storm records to make their predictions of how often these big storms might hit.

In Tampa, one of these huge "grey swans" could bring storm surges of up to 36 feet by 2100, dwarfing previous storm surges endured during hurricanes decades ago. As a comparison, the storm surge during Hurricane Katrina was 33 feet, the highest on record in the U.S.

Global warming could also cause the storms to form in the Persian Gulf, swamping cities such as Dubai, where tropical cyclones have never been seen before. Unimaginable wind speeds of 257 mph were also modeled in the study in the Persian Gulf.

"We are considering extreme cases," Lin said in a statement. "These are relevant for policy making and planning, especially for critical infrastructure and nuclear power plants."

One expert not involved in the study, Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Center, was skeptical. "Nearly all of the projections for intensity change published previously are for only 0-5% stronger," Landsea told Inside Climate News. "Their conclusions of hurricane intensity and climate change are thus about 20 times larger than the consensus."

The other city researchers examined for the study was Cairns, Australia, where they say storm surges of up to 18 feet might be possible.

Toward the end of this century, the possibility of storm surges of eight to 11 meters (26 to 36 feet) increases significantly in cities such as Tampa. The color bar at the right  is in meters.
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