CPAC: Paul edges Walker in straw poll

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. — Rand Paul won a high-profile straw poll for a third straight year Saturday, capping an annual conservative conference at which delegates argued about how to turn their ideas into a presidential victory in 2016.

The Kentucky senator carried 25.7% in the Conservative Political Action Conference poll, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker finished second with 21.4% — a closer-than-expected tally in this early test of political strength among conservative Republican activists.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, finished third with 11.5%, followed closely by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with 11.4%.

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush — perhaps the most criticized candidate at this conservative conclave — finished fifth at 8.3%.

Other potential presidential candidates — including Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and Rick Perry — had less than 4% in the straw poll. Paul also won CPAC contests in 2013 and 2014.

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The straw poll highlighted the four-day conference at which conservative delegates generally agreed they need to elect one of their own to the presidency in 2016, but disputed the best way to go about it.

Some CPAC delegates said Republicans should nominate a true believer, someone who can repeal health care, shrink the size of the federal government and aggressively wage war on the Islamic State militant group.

Others agreed on the need for a conservative nominee but said the GOP needs to reach out to moderates who may hold different views on immigration, education and foreign policy and will be needed to win the presidential vote in 2016.

"I am 60% confident right now," said attendee Brian Long in-between conference sessions. "I'd like to say I'm 80% confident."

As CPAC members swapped stories and handed out buttons and pamphlets in the hallways, the longtime tension between "real conservatives" and "establishment Republicans" surfaced repeatedly.

It could be seen in the reactions to one prospective candidate in particular: Jeb Bush.

Although some CPAC members applauded Bush's call for "reform" conservatism, others described the former Florida governor as a dreaded RINO — Republican In Name Only. "He should be a Democrat," said Christmas Simon, a public speaker from Yorba Linda, Calif.

Bush's name drew boos during some of Saturday's wrap-up sessions.

Noelani Bonifacio, 26, a legislative aide to a state senator in Hawaii, said conservatives fight each other too much. Bonifacio said she knows people who backed former Texas congressman Ron Paul during the 2012 Republican primaries, then refused to vote for eventual nominee Mitt Romney in the general election.

"We have a lot of disagreements — which is good — but I think we spend too much time attacking each other," said Bonifacio, who voted for Rubio, a Florida senator, in the straw poll. "We should be attacking Democrats."

Bonifacio said Bush "is not my first choice," but she would vote for him in the general election if he is the nominee because "he is better than the alternative."

Not everyone at CPAC agreed. Some cited Bush's support of a pathway to citizenship for migrants who are in the country illegally. Others criticized his support of education standards known as "Common Core."

Simon — who cast her straw vote for "hard-core conservative" Cruz, the Texas senator — said voters want people who "really stand firm on what they believe in."

There's also the fact that the last two Republican presidents were named Bush.

"The only dynasty that I like is the Duck Dynasty," said radio talk show host Mark Levin during a CPAC session Saturday, a reference to a television program featuring a family headed by Phil Robertson, a religious conservative who spoke here Friday.

CPAC members — some of whom spent as much time attacking the new Republican Congress as President Obama — gravitated toward prospective candidates who say they want to challenge the GOP establishment in Washington.

That group includes Paul, Walker, Cruz and Carson.

Long, 68, a regional economist from Kalamazoo, Mich., said Republicans need to attract people who rarely vote, just as the Democratic turnout machine helped elect Obama twice. "We have to reach out to conservative voters who stay at home when they see a candidate who does not move them," he said.

Democrats, meanwhile, watched the proceedings at CPAC with pleasure, saying conservatives are pushing the Republicans too far to the right to win a general election.

Jesse Lehrich, spokesman for a Democratic opposition research organization called American Bridge, noted "the continued divide between the conservative and establishment wings of the party," exemplified by the "animosity" toward Bush. He said that "earning the acceptance of Republican voters is incompatible with being a viable candidate in a national election."

Republicans said the prospect of a "third Obama term" — possibly in the form of Hillary Rodham Clinton — will persuade most Americans to support a conservative in 2016.

Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, said the different types of conservatives — social, economic and national security — agree more than they disagree. They also share one overarching goal, he said: the desire to win after two terms of Obama.

"They want to win," Schlapp said. "They are ready to win."

There are months to go before any Republican caucus or primary votes are cast. But by the time CPAC next gathers in March 2016, the identity of the Republican nominee may be known.

Getting there involves a process, said Roman Buhler, director of a Virginia-based organization called the Madison Coalition.

"What's happening here," he said, "is the beginning stage of a really important debate to determine what it takes to bring new leadership to the country."