Even Tom Izzo couldn’t have believed a Final Four was in the cards this year with his 2014-2015 Michigan State squad, a team devoid of stars and one with losses to powerhouses Texas Southern (No. 202 in the Pomeroy Ratings), Nebraska (No. 132), Illinois (No. 69) and Minnesota (No. 58).

But here is Izzo again, making his seventh Final Four since 1999 after beating Louisville in overtime on Sunday. That’s the most of any coach in the nation over that time period. (In comparison, Mike Krzyzewski has four appearances.) Izzo did all of this without an alpha player, but a number of fine ones — Michigan State placed one player (Branden Dawson) on the All-Big 10 second team and two more (Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine) on the third team.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

It’s a big change from just two months ago,when Michigan State stood at 13-7 with a 4-3 Big 10 record and only one win against the kenpom.com top 50. That would have put them squarely on the bubble. Now, they’ve been beating the top teams in the country during this unexpected, unbelievable run. But, for Izzo, March is like a night with Cinderella (the real one, not the NCAA tourney undedogs), except the carriage doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin after one night. It waits until the Final Four.

Because, and here’s the rub, Michigan State hasn’t done great in the Final Four since Izzo’s team cut down the nets all the way back in 2000. With the exception of that tournament, Izzo’s teams are 1-6 in the Final Four, with its only other national championship appearance coming in 2009 when Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson and UNC won in a blowout during which MSU’s only lead came at 3-2, one minute into the game.

After the 2000 title, with Mateen Cleaves. (USA TODAY Sports Images)

Is it fair to say that Izzo’s teams have had Final Four quantity, not quality? Since 1999, he has seven appearances with one championship. Roy Williams has five with two wins and Billy Donovan has four with back-to-back titles. But this doesn’t say as much about Izzo as it first would appear. The tournament is a crapshoot and the Spartans have played it every year since 1998, a streak tied for the fourth-longest of all time. In those 18 tournaments, MSU has made 9 Elite Eights and 13 Sweet 16s. Not only is Izzo winning at the crapshoot, his regular-season coaching, which is what matters most, has put Michigan State in a fine bracket position to make those runs.

But this might be the most impressive stat may be these: 1) With Sunday’s win over Louisville, Izzo earned his 13th NCAA tournament game as a lower seed, a record he set with win No. 12 over third-seeded Oklahoma. That puts him two ahead of other one-time NCAA tournament champions Rollie Massimino and Lute Olsen. 2) Izzo has “only” made nine Elite Eight appearances, meaning he’s 7-2 when he gets to the regional finals.

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

So even though other coaches have more titles and others get more press, Tom Izzo has been the master of March since the turn of the century. And this year, taking his No. 7 Spartans to the Final Four after wins over No. 2 Virginia, a darling of the stat community, and No. 3 Oklahoma (there was no easy draw here) might be one of his impressive coaching jobs yet. He said as much, telling reporters

And though it’s tempting to say MSU will get rolled in the national semifinal or, if they pull the upset, the national championship, one thing we’ve learned this season, and over the past 16, is to never jump to conclusions when Tom Izzo is on the bench.

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