Chris Christie isn't toast until voters say so

To use a Jersey Shore expression, Gov. Chris Christie is getting boiled by a big wave.

At one time considered a possible front-runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, Christie lags potential rival Jeb Bush in signing up major donors. His poll numbers are poor. His history of accepting gifts and travel has been documented in the media. Videos of his high jinks in the Dallas Cowboys owners' box circulate on social media, and not in a good way.

Is Christie's all-but-declared presidential bid already toast? Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire might well point out that their voters have a say in that — and the retail politicking that characterizes the early-state contests plays to Christie's strength: authenticity.

"It's too early to say (candidates) are bringing too much baggage and New Hampshire's not going to give them a look,'' says Donnalee Lozeau, former state House majority leader and now mayor of Nashua. "In New Hampshire, people want to meet you and hear from you and don't necessarily believe everything they read.''

To win the Iowa caucuses, "It takes money, but it's not the end-all-be-all,'' says Craig Robinson, a political activist who runs The Iowa Republican news site.

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In 2012, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum won a 34-vote victory in the Iowa caucuses over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, despite being widely outspent. "You've got to have enough money to spend 50-60 days here, you're going to have to hire staff obviously, to use that time well, and maybe (run) a mix of advertising,'' Robinson says. "But I don't think that just because you have the most money, you win. In Iowa, it's a place where the fundraising reports don't matter.''

Christie has yet to announce a super PAC to collect unlimited donations to fund a 2016 bid. Bush, Christie's presumed rival for moderate GOP voters and independents, has scooped up millions. Billionaire Home Depot founder Ken Langone supports Christie, but other big GOP donors are negative.

"Gov. Christie is a great man, but he's got some baggage," says Stanley Hubbard, a Minnesota media magnate who is giving $50,000 to a committee backing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Hubbard noted both the controversy over Bridgegate, a politically motivated traffic jam on the George Washington Bridge, and news reports that Christie accepted thousands of dollars' worth of trips paid for by the Jordanian government, which is not prohibited by New Jersey ethics requirements because of an executive order Christie signed in 2010. "You really don't want that kind of baggage when you are running a campaign," he said.

Christie faces a difficult budget situation in his home state, where he'll give the annual budget address Tuesday. Among other woes, he has to offer a plan to replenish the state transportation tax fund, and a gas tax hike is a possibility. Thursday, Christie will speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference, the candidate cattle call that gave him a good reception last year. There, he will again pitch his conservative bona fides to a young, energetic and libertarian-leaning crowd.

"It's far too early to write him off,'' says political commentator Stu Rothenberg of the non-partisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. "But he has lots to prove during the campaign.''

SKETCHY POLLING

Almost a year before the first contests, opinion polls are sketchy predictors of what voters will do, since they don't appear to know the candidates particularly well.

In a CBS News poll released Thursday, Bush came out on top: 49% of Republicans said they would vote for him for president. Twenty-five percent said they didn't know enough about Bush to decide, and that number was higher for all other potential candidates.

Christie came in ninth out of 11 potential candidates. Twenty-eight percent said they would vote for him, 43% said they would not vote for him, and 29% said they didn't know enough to say.

Christie and Bush have hired staff in Iowa and New Hampshire. Unlike Bush, Christie has made repeated trips to the states, first in his role as chairman of the Republican Governors Association and this month as a proto-candidate. Bush was last in Iowa shortly before the 2012 election, addressing the Sioux City Chamber of Commerce. His next trip will be March 7, when he and Christie will be among the speakers at the Iowa Agricultural Summit. Bush plans a two-day trip to New Hampshire on March 13.

The contests in the early states play to Christie's strength: his love of retail politicking. Jacket off, microphone in hand, Christie has engaged in Q&As with New Jersey voters at 127 town hall meetings since becoming governor in 2010 — many of which have given rise to "YouTube moments" promoted by his staff. He'll hold his 128th meeting Wednesday in Moorestown, N.J.

Juliana Bergeron, a Republican National Committee member from New Hampshire, sat next to Christie at his appearance at the Merrimack County Lincoln-Reagan dinner last week. "It just feels like he's a person who's comfortable in his own skin, and he makes people around him feel comfortable,'' she said.

Bush, whose speeches lean toward cerebral, may pale in comparison. "I do think he needs to worry about that. That's what hurt Romney,'' Bergeron says. "He was just such a gentleman on that stage, they didn't see his passion. With Christie, you're going to see the passion. Anybody who wants to compete with that needs to show that.''

A TOWN HALL CANDIDACY?

Mike DuHaime, Christie's political adviser, says writing off Christie is "foolish.'' The governor is "the only potential candidate with a history of winning repeatedly in a solidly Democrat state and winning voters that are traditionally unreceptive to Republicans.'' In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can vote in the GOP primary.

DuHaime wouldn't comment on reports that Christie plans to hold town halls soon in New Hampshire. "Any speculation on tactics is premature, but he has done nearly 130 town halls in New Jersey, so many see that as part of his natural strength in a state that values direct communication with voters.''

If Christie succeeds on the trail, money will follow, Bergeron says. "There's still a lot more money out there, and it can shift later if the people shift.''

Comparing donors is not a preoccupation of voters, says Kerry Marsh, Concord, N.H., Republican chairwoman. Christie's fundraising base is not that big a concern to people outside political circles, she says. "It's more about what he stands for.''

In Iowa, "Christie kind of has a leg up when it comes to staffing and relationships you need to be building,'' Robinson says. For one thing, Christie is tight with popular Gov. Terry Branstad. "He's been like Terry Branstad's house band. If Branstad's having a big fundraiser and needs a draw, it's Chris Christie.''

He needs to hustle, Robinson says. "He has to capitalize on that advantage sooner rather than later.'' And he needs to go to the little towns. "If Chris Christie shows up in some county seat … it's going to be a big event. You need to do that stuff early.''

Ask Mayor Lozeau. Bush, the son of a president famous for handwritten thank-you notes, hasn't been to New Hampshire, but he's been dialing the 603 area code. "Jeb Bush I've already talked to on the phone, because he called,'' says Lozeau, who says she won't endorse in the primary. "It was a courtesy call to let me know he was seriously considering (a 2016 run), he was coming to New Hampshire, he hoped I'd make time to say hello.'' She hasn't heard from Christie.

Contributing: Fredreka Schouten

This story has been updated to correctly characterize t he document New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie signed in 2010 allowing foreign government-paid travel. It was an executive order.