Affordable Care Act hasn't overwhelmed doctors, study says

Predictions that doctors would be overwhelmed by new patients as a result of the Affordable Care Act have not come true a year after the law's coverage expansions took effect.

That's according to a study to be released Wednesday from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and health care technology company Athenahealth. By gathering data from 15,700 of Athenahealth's clients, mainly physicians, the study measured how the Affordable Care Act has affected doctors.

"In the run-up to the coverage expansion aspects of the Affordable Care Act, there was a concern a lot of these patients might have unmet medical needs and their demand for services might overwhelm the capacity of primary care doctors. We just haven't seen that," says Josh Gray, vice president of Athenahealth's research division. "That rush has just not materialized across our network."

New-patient visits to primary care providers increased very slightly during 2014, from 22.6% of total patient visits to 22.9%. These new patients were not sicker than patients who were insured before the Affordable Care Act took effect, as some commentators had also worried. Percentages of patients diagnosed with chronic conditions including diabetes, high blood pressure and high cholesterol remained comparable with past years.

Uninsured patients are making up a much lower proportion of total visitors, too, especially in states that opted for Medicaid expansion.

"It really suggests that, even though there's been a big increase in coverage, it's a relatively small part of the market and the delivery system is able to handle the demand," says Kathy Hempstead, director of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

These findings mimic the results of Massachusetts' 2006 health care law passed during Mitt Romney's time as governor, according to Sabrina Corlette, a senior research fellow at Georgetown University's Center on Health Insurance Reforms.

"What we saw there, there were some pockets of high demand around the state, particularly for primary care, but after the first few months that settled down and has not been too much of an issue over time," Corlette says. "Fast forward to the Affordable Care Act, and it's good news physician offices have not been overwhelmed. That means lower wait times for consumers and patients and better access to care overall."