Jerian Grant. (Getty Images)
Kentucky has yet to face a team in this NCAA tournament to which it had a realistic chance of losing. Heck, UK hasn’t really played a worthy adversary since before New Year’s Day. And no matter how much bravado West Virginia had going into Thursday’s Sweet 16 game, the Mountaineers weren’t in the same universe as UK, let alone the same league. That changes Saturday against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Forget the constant NCAA disappointments of Mike Brey and Notre Dame’s lack of basketball success over the past 35 years (this is the Irish’s first Elite Eight since 1979). This is a squad that beat Duke and North Carolina twice this year and ran through teams in the kenpom.com top 20 in the last two rounds of the tourney. (The Irish were actually underdogs to seventh-seeded Wichita State on Thursday night before blowing through the final eight minutes.)
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But will that be enough to beat Kentucky? Here’s what the entire college basketball world knows: If Kentucky plays like it did against West Virginia on Thursday night (the Wildcats doubled-up West Virginia 78-39), then they’re unbeatable. But they won’t. With three games left, there’s plenty of time for a Kentucky off-night mixed with an opponent’s on-night. A team that seemed unbeatable in the Sweet 16 could suddenly look very beatable in the Elite Eight and beyond.
So how would Notre Dame pull the upset? Here are seven ways:
1. Jerian Grant has to bring It, capital “I.”
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The senior point guard needs to play a game that’s made him worthy of player of the year consideration. Grant runs the show offensively, even more so than coach Mike Brey, and knows how to space the floors, get teammates to set picks and always makes the right shot or pass. He’s the fuel that makes Notre Dame go. If he’s driving, shooting and defending, Kentucky could have problems with his speed.
2. But Pat Connaughton needs to shoot well too.
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The two-sport star (he’s a pitcher in the Baltimore Orioles minor-league system) has nine double-doubles on the year, including going for 16 and 10 against Wichita State. He’ll need to do at least that and hit some early threes to get Kentucky to defend the perimeter and open up the middle for Grant and Demetrius Jackson to drive and for Zach Auguste to get some space against Kentucky’s tremendous front line.
3. Hit the threes.
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That’s like saying “score more points” — of course you need to hit threes to pull an upset — but it’s going to be especially key in beating Kentucky. Three-pointers are the way towards an upset and the way to keep Kentucky from pulling away. It’s easier said than done, as Kentucky’s long arms were third in defending three-pointers all year. And if Notre Dame forces Kentucky to go small, the ‘Cats can do that with ease. That’s what makes Kentucky Kentucky.
4. Keep it close early.
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Again, another obvious one. But Kentucky hasn’t been tested in a long time. What happens when the Wildcats are finally challenged by a team that’s on their level (just not as high.) Notre Dame is a team full of upperclassmen (both Grant and Connaughton are seniors and Auguste is a junior). Though Kentucky is far from the one-and-done team that Calipari last won a title with (Willie Cauley-Stein is a junior, the Harrison twins are sophomores), Notre Dame’s senior leadership could be crucial down the stretch.
5. Slow it down.
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Neither team plays particularly fast, but Notre Dame would be wise to let Grant dribble out possessions and start plays with 10 seconds left on the shot clock.
6. Hope Kentucky and the refs have an off-night.
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Again, a perfect Kentucky team is unbeatable and the ‘Cats are the undisputed best team in college basketball. But one-and-done tournaments don’t identify the best, they identify the survivors. Kentucky played flawlessly against West Virginia, which is either bad news for Notre Dame (the ‘Cats are rounding into form) or great news (they’re due for a stinker). It’s going to take some Wildcat struggles for Notre Dame to hang around and maybe, just maybe, the refs play a part in that. If the officials take control of the game early and whistle Kentucky’s big men for fouls, it’d be a travesty on par with Greg Oden getting two quick touch-fouls and having to sit for much of the 2007 title game. But it’d be good for Notre Dame. The common theme this March has been horrendous officiating from refs who want to take control of the game. Notre Dame wouldn’t necessarily mind some of those refs working on Saturday night.
7. Just relax
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Kentucky isn’t unbeatable, despite what Vegas and its early 10.5-point spread might indicate. Don’t panic if UK gets out to an early lead, keep shooting if they don’t fall early and remember, you’re supposed to lose. Play hard with that house money.
