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Greece has voted 'yes' already (betting firm says)

Kim Hjelmgaard
USA TODAY

Ireland's largest betting firm is so convinced Greeks will vote "yes" in a national referendum over bailout terms that it is already paying out on bets.

Rory Scott, a spokesman for Paddy Power, said Wednesday that more than 85% of bets placed with the firm ahead of Sunday's vote are gambling that voters will reject calls by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' government to vote "No" on the measure that could determine whether Athens is forced out of the eurozone.

For that reason, Scott said, Paddy Power has handed out a five-figure sum — he wouldn't divulge the specific amount — to the few thousand customers who believe Greece will vote to accept the painful austerity measures insisted on by the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission.

"(Greece has) been hugely popular with the punters (customers), but it's been a real headache for us because the market is constantly changing on rumors of new deals and proposals that are said to be accepted, then quickly rejected," Scott said.

He added that Paddy Power has been running bets on whether Greece will leave the eurozone since the start of the year.

"It's a good chunk of change," he said, referring to the pre-vote payouts. "It's as if it's already happened, and the money has already gone into peoples' accounts. Alternatively, they can go into our shops and pick up their winnings."

Paddy Power has now stopped taking bets on the Greek referendum. But at the time of the payout, the bookie was offering odds of 2-7 that Greece would vote "Yes."

Scott said Paddy Power had thought it was likely that over the coming days Tsipras would campaign heavily for a "Yes" vote. But on Wednesday the prime minister did exactly the opposite, appearing on television to urge Greeks to reject the creditors' terms.

Paddy Power successfully predicted the outcomes of the recent British election, the Scottish referendum on independence and the re-election of President Obama in 2012.

In all those cases, Scott said, Paddy Power paid out winnings prior to the outcomes of the events.

"If it's a 'No' vote on Sunday we'll look a bit silly," he said. "And we won't be far from a bailout ourselves," he joked.

An opinion poll published Wednesday by the Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper showed that most Greeks are likely to vote "No" to the terms, but the "No" side's lead appeared to be narrowing.

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